2012 Bay Area Radio Predictions

[HenryOchs]

With 2012 less than two months off, it's not too early to look into the radio crystal ball to see what the coming year will bring to Bay Area radio. And now, without further adu, here are my 2012 Bay Area Radio Predictions:

1. The Country Music format will return to The Bay Area.

2. Clear Channel will simulcast one of their Bay Area stations on XM Radio.

3. NextMedia will buy a radio station in San Francisco

4. Eagle Communications will buy several stations in San Jose (including KSJO)

5. KREV will flip to Dance and will bring back the 92-7 The Party name!

6. Oldies 103-7 will flip from its current Classic Hits format to a True Oldies presentation.

7. KOIT's HD-2 Channel will begin simulcasting their sister station The End in Sacramento.

8. WiLD 94.9 Morning Man JV will get a channel on satellite radio and will bring back the
entire Doghouse cast!!!!!!!!!

9. Rapture predictor Harold Camping will "FINALLY" sell his San Francisco station KEAR to a
commercial broadcaster.

10. Hubbard Broadcasting will enter The Bay Area radio market.

That's my radio predictions for the coming year...NOW what's yours?

 

[recto101]

Camping'g Big 610 would have to go to a multi ethnic group or another religious group which commercial outlet want 610 today?

How about KDFC getting the "Third Station".

Clear Channel will simulcast one of their Bay Area stations on XM Radio? Really name the station and will it be automated or have real DJ's? I do remember that KIIS in LA used to have an outlet on XM or Sirius a few years back.

 

[Madmansam]

I am wondering how many of the 2011 Bay Area Radio Predictions came true this year?

 

[Madmansam]

I am wondering how many of the 2011 Bay Area Radio Predictions came true this year?

and I revived that old 2011 Bay Area Radio Predictions list. And it seems that Henry Ochs was correct in predicting that the A's would move its flagship to an FM Station. Otherwise the rest of his predictions did not turn out.

 

[DaveBayArea]

The one out of that bunch that seems likely to me is that Country will return (I assume Henry means on a full-market signal - we already have two bay-area country stations).

I'm also going to add a prediction that EMF will file to move 107.3 to somewhere in the East Bay Hills - maybe Sunol Ridge - with a directional antenna.

Dave B.

 

[Madmansam]

Not quite a prediction but I wonder if Cumulus will switch one of their FM Stations to a News/Talk KGO-FM or a Sports KNBR-FM? Not sure how either KFOG or KSAN are doing?

 

[LKellerIII]

With 2012 less than two months off, it's not too early to look into the radio crystal ball to see what the coming year will bring to Bay Area radio. And now, without further adu, here are my 2012 Bay Area Radio Predictions:

1. The Country Music format will return to The Bay Area.

Because?....these huge profit-hungry radio conglomerates are...gluttons for punishment?

6. Oldies 103-7 will flip from its current Classic Hits format to a True Oldies presentation.

I doubt that. I hate to compliment a voice-tracked bargain-basement Clear Channel station, but IMO, the music on Oldies 103.7 is very cleverly chosen to attract both younger "boomers" and people who grew up with 80s music. I think it's the reason their ratings are decent.

 

[RadioJunkieMike]

Not quite a prediction but I wonder if Cumulus will switch one of their FM Stations to a News/Talk KGO-FM or a Sports KNBR-FM? Not sure how either KFOG or KSAN are doing?

see the current "New KFOG Sound" thread.

As has been mentioned here many times, KFOG has traditionally billed better than its ratings would suggest -- top 5, as I understand it. Assuming it's the same sales team, I'm guessing The Bone does OK too. Now that KFOG is trying very hard to skew younger, I gotta assume their sales guys are thrilled. The question is, how will the battle between K-Fox and The Bone shake out. Right now The Bone has a slight edge.

 

[recto101]

http://www.nextmediagroup.net/radio-california

If Next media is going to San Francisco doesn't this mean that they have to do simulcasts of KBAY and KEZR-FM of San Jose if the market research proves that they want it.
Remember in January 2011 when Entercom got KUFX from a trust they put a simulcast on 102.1 from the flagship 98.5 frequency from San Jose. Then sold sold KDFC property to USC and put it on 90.3 and 89.9 FM.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbard_Broadcasting

Hubbard Broadcasting what frequency would they have?

 

[HenryOchs]

http://www.nextmediagroup.net/radio-california

If Next media is going to San Francisco doesn't this mean that they have to do simulcasts of KBAY and KEZR-FM of San Jose if the market research proves that they want it.
Remember in January 2011 when Entercom got KUFX from a trust they put a simulcast on 102.1 from the flagship 98.5 frequency from San Jose. Then sold sold KDFC property to USC and put it on 90.3 and 89.9 FM.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbard_Broadcasting

Hubbard Broadcasting what frequency would they have?

Any radio station that's struggling in the ratings right now.

 

[suburbandj]

Not quite a prediction but I wonder if Cumulus will switch one of their FM Stations to a News/Talk KGO-FM or a Sports KNBR-FM? Not sure how either KFOG or KSAN are doing?

see the current "New KFOG Sound" thread.

As has been mentioned here many times, KFOG has traditionally billed better than its ratings would suggest -- top 5, as I understand it. Assuming it's the same sales team, I'm guessing The Bone does OK too. Now that KFOG is trying very hard to skew younger, I gotta assume their sales guys are thrilled. The question is, how will the battle between K-Fox and The Bone shake out. Right now The Bone has a slight edge.

The question is would Cumulus be bettter off with KGO on 97.7 or 104.5 then having KFOG on both frequencies.

 

[LKellerIII]

In my opinion, no. KFOG has a loyal following, and they're changing the music to try and get younger listeners. It's too soon to tell if that will be successful. The Bone rates pretty decently too.

I think KGO skews old partially because they're AM only, but also because the programming appeals mostly to older audiences. Most of the talk hosts on KGO are 60 plus years old. Yeah - I know it's radio, so you can't see the wrinkles, but they all sound like old guys and they talk about old stuff.

Simulcasting on FM will solve the first problem, but not the second. And they'd be killing off a separate revenue stream to do it.

Again - it made sense for KCBS. 106.9 had only recently been purchased by CBS, and both format attempts - Free FM, and Classic Hits - were floperoos.

 

[DavidKaye]

I think KGO skews old partially because they're AM only, but also because the programming appeals mostly to older audiences. Most of the talk hosts on KGO are 60 plus years old. Yeah - I know it's radio, so you can't see the wrinkles, but they all sound like old guys and they talk about old stuff.

And yet I think KGO has among its current staff people who could make KGO appeal to younger people. Chief among them is Gil Gross. While callers are not a perfect indication of who is listening, they are somewhat helpful in determining audience. Gil has a lot of younger listeners.

If I were scheduling KGO to move forward the next 10 years I'd pick this lineup:


DAILY:
9am to noon: Karel
Noon to 1pm: Len Tillem (he gets a very wide demographic of callers)
1 to 4pm: Gil Gross
7 to 10pm: Pat Thurston
10pm to 1am: Stacy Taylor
1am to 5am: Peter B Collins

WEEKENDS:
To be determined, but definitely Christine Craft, Brian Copeland, and the full Leo Laporte show.

 

[RadioStarOne]

Thank GOD! DavidKaye isn't programming KGO! Nice try though!

 

[DavidKaye]

Thank GOD! DavidKaye isn't programming KGO! Nice try though!

What's wrong with my list? I'm not a fan of Karel, but I know that he's a powerhouse on the weekends. Plus, KGO needs to get away from the Ronn Owens style of old-fart political discussions. Karel in the daytime would really shake up KGO, which needs shaking up, given that they're down to #17 or so in the desirable 25 to 49 demographic.

Of the current "Four Horsemen" hosts on KGO, only Gil Gross seems to attract (1) younger listeners, and (2) listeners who are doing anything with their lives. While I understand the idea behind putting the noon news back on KGO (to make it a stronger competitor against KCBS), I think that the time is better spent giving Gil Gross and extra hour a day. It's a travesty that such a skilled talkshow host gets only 2 hours a day.

Much as I think Len Tillem's callers are boring as hell (drunk drivers, people fighting their sibling's over mama's will), Len himself makes the show refreshing by his over the top style.

Pat Thurston has shown that she can not only bring in interesting topics, she seems to be well-connected enough to get them to come on her weekend show at 3:00am, something that Ray Taliaferro can't seem to make happen. Pat probably has the widest range of topics of anyone on KGO.

Stacy Taylor has become a fascinating listen the months he's been on KGO (Saturdays 1 to 4pm). He's not exactly liberal, not exactly libertarian. He has a style that I'd say is Gil Gross with an edge, sort of down-homey, but pointed. I look forward to hearing him whenever he's on KGO.

Peter B. Collins is great for the overnights where he shines. He's probably too mellow for other dayparts, but he's reasonable and brings interesting topics to the table.

So, big guy, who would YOU want to hear on KGO?

 

[michael hagerty]

Camping'g Big 610 would have to go to a multi ethnic group or another religious group which commercial outlet want 610 today?

How about KDFC getting the "Third Station".

Clear Channel will simulcast one of their Bay Area stations on XM Radio? Really name the station and will it be automated or have real DJ's? I do remember that KIIS in LA used to have an outlet on XM or Sirius a few years back.

While AM is a tough sell, 610's signal is one of the best. There might be a commercial broadcaster who'd find it attractive.

KIIS-FM is back on XM, which also carries Z-100 and WLTW.

 

[JackBenny]

Who would be interested in the 610 frequency...KQED (there is a precedent with WNYC) or would 95.7 KMGZ The Game be interested? What would you do with 610 frequency?

 

[LKellerIII]

Who would be interested in the 610 frequency...KQED (there is a precedent with WNYC) or would 95.7 KMGZ The Game be interested? What would you do with 610 frequency?

But why would KQED want 610? 88.5 is a strong signal, and they simulcast on 89.1 (I think) licensed to North Highlands, to give them coverage in the Sacramento area. IIRC, they have a third simulcast in the North Bay. What would 610 bring them...more South Bay coverage?

 

[DavidKaye]

But why would KQED want 610? 88.5 is a strong signal, and they simulcast on 89.1 (I think) licensed to North Highlands, to give them coverage in the Sacramento area. IIRC, they have a third simulcast in the North Bay. What would 610 bring them...more South Bay coverage?

KQED could get GREAT benefits from buying 610. They'd increase their Sacramento coverage substantially and eliminate their multipath problem. Why oh why does KQED insist on running a stereo pilot when most of their programming talk? The multipath is horrendous in SF and on the Peninsula. KALW runs rings around them with 1/10th the power.

But back to Sacramento coveage, KQEI doesn't do very well in that regard and their lack of ratings shows it.

 

[LKellerIII]

But why would KQED want 610? 88.5 is a strong signal, and they simulcast on 89.1 (I think) licensed to North Highlands, to give them coverage in the Sacramento area. IIRC, they have a third simulcast in the North Bay. What would 610 bring them...more South Bay coverage?

KQED could get GREAT benefits from buying 610. They'd increase their Sacramento coverage substantially and eliminate their multipath problem. Why oh why does KQED insist on running a stereo pilot when most of their programming talk? The multipath is horrendous in SF and on the Peninsula. KALW runs rings around them with 1/10th the power.

But back to Sacramento coveage, KQEI doesn't do very well in that regard and their lack of ratings shows it.

OK, I'll buy that. So we can expect the top of the hour ID to be: "KQED-FM and AM, San Francisco, 88.5 and the Big 610..."