2012 Bay Area Radio Predictions

[davideduardo]

The future holds a different note than the past; let it go and move forward. Make different mistakes, it's how we grow.

While some will consider Santayana's "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" to be either trite or overused, it applies in this case. Radio reflects taste, and taste changes truly very little over time within a city or a society.

So it is appropriate to look for trends and events in the past. One reason is to avoid falling into the stock definition of insanity... the repetition of the same thing over and over hoping for a different outcome.

That's how we know that, today, trying to duplicate the largely diary based success of KPIG in a different and smaller market is, well, insane.

And I apologize for being old, white and male. I didn't have any vote on any of those conditions, but definitely lament not being younger again.

 

[davideduardo]

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[RadioStarOne]

Thanks David for clearing up the details on the two transactions! I knew I had it right, so there you go Mr. Kaye. No brag just fact, lol. Family Radio may have not overpaid for the 610 station then, but they will have a hard time ever getting much of that back in any future sale. My take on the future is that 610 will end up with Clear Channel or Cumulus in a rather large swap of staions in the bay area before the end of 2012. Which is not an unheard of thing here is the bay area!

 

[DavidKaye]

So it is appropriate to look for trends and events in the past. One reason is to avoid falling into the stock definition of insanity... the repetition of the same thing over and over hoping for a different outcome.

You've probably noticed that this is also the definition of a good salesman. It takes at least 5 and on average 8 no responses from a potential customer before you get a yes. (Of course, a better salesman would pick the market better and not waste time on so many no answers, but sales people don't always have the choice of who they approach for sales.)

And I apologize for being old, white and male. I didn't have any vote on any of those conditions, but definitely lament not being younger again.

I don't mind being older, but I do wish I was as pretty as I used to be...

 

[DavidKaye]

Thanks David for clearing up the details on the two transactions! I knew I had it right, so there you go Mr. Kaye. No brag just fact, lol. Family Radio may have not overpaid for the 610 station then, but they will have a hard time ever getting much of that back in any future sale. My take on the future is that 610 will end up with Clear Channel or Cumulus in a rather large swap of staions in the bay area before the end of 2012. Which is not an unheard of thing here is the bay area!

The $35 million for KFRC was a paper transaction predicated on selling the FM to CBS. I can assure you that Family would not have spent $35 million to buy any AM station, even one with KFRC's coverage. So, Family didn't spent $35 million, they made $60 million. If memory serves, Family still has two commercial FMs in their stable, both in the NYC area, so they can probably keep their network going for some time if they have to sell those, too. How much would a 30kw FM that blankets NYC sell for -- $100 million? More?

 

[Madmansam]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KEAR-FM According to Wikipedia, 1996. Started as KEDR then changed to KEAR in 2005 when Family Radio sold 106.9 to CBS.

 

[davideduardo]

The $35 million for KFRC was a paper transaction predicated on selling the FM to CBS. I can assure you that Family would not have spent $35 million to buy any AM station, even one with KFRC's coverage. So, Family didn't spent $35 million, they made $60 million. If memory serves, Family still has two commercial FMs in their stable, both in the NYC area, so they can probably keep their network going for some time if they have to sell those, too. How much would a 30kw FM that blankets NYC sell for -- $100 million? More?

As far as the FCC was concerned, these were separate deals... and it put a price on the AM for tax and asset purposes.

The NJ FM that Family owns is well to the east of Manhattan, although it does theoretically city grade the City. But it's aiming across the river at Manhattan, not from above as the ESB stations do. My experience is that the reception in Queens, Manhattan and the other boroughs is not prime. Value? Maybe $25 million. Even with the lower power one they have out on LA, its still not a competitive signal.

They have relatively full power FMs in Buffalo and Rochester, NY, and one in Camden that is likely already going to CBS to simulcast KYW. Overall, they have about 130 stations, many are low power critters with numbers in the calls... still, about 35 are 500 watts or more, and in some big markets like chicago, etc.

 

[recto101]

Lets consider another thing for the future how about cars having Satellite internet on their dashboards and more people listening to music their MP3's or Web radio via satellite connection. or in some cases Wifi-internet signals improves and cover a larger area like a 50K watt AM station would and more people listen to good radio on the web.

 

[DavidKaye]

As far as the FCC was concerned, these were separate deals... and it put a price on the AM for tax and asset purposes.

But, what would be the purpose of valuing 610 at $35 million? We know that Harold Camping has been involved in some shrewd deals that helped Family immensely. The guy's no slouch in negotiations apparently. We know that 610 isn't worth $35 million and wasn't worth that amount even at the height of the boom. So, if it's not a tax shift somewhere then what gives?

The NJ FM that Family owns is well to the east of Manhattan, although it does theoretically city grade the City. But it's aiming across the river at Manhattan, not from above as the ESB stations do. My experience is that the reception in Queens, Manhattan and the other boroughs is not prime. Value? Maybe $25 million. Even with the lower power one they have out on LA, its still not a competitive signal.

Really? A check of the FCC database shows that WFME covers substantially the same territory as WPLJ, WCBS, and more than onetime market leader WKTU.

 

[davideduardo]

But, what would be the purpose of valuing 610 at $35 million?

CBS can then look at the asset appreciation or devaluation based on a firm price. There is no benefit to Family since it is a non-profit.

$35 million looks high, but when you see a pre-consolidation sale of KHJ for $25 million, a post consolidation value near $35 million for one of the only 4 full market coverage AMs is near reality.

Really? A check of the FCC database shows that WFME covers substantially the same territory as WPLJ, WCBS, and more than onetime market leader WKTU.

The signal comes from a tower in Jersey, roughly west of East Orange, which is under 600 feet high. The minute it hits, horizontally, the high rises of Manhattan and the apartments of the boroughs, it loses penetrating power. It's way to the west of the center of the market, and misses most of Long Island and the bit of SW CT that are in the NY metro. It misses about a third of the metro population with the 65 dbu signal: in home and at work are more important in NYC as commute listening is far less than other markets... and that means building penetration is essential.

 

[DaveBayArea]

[Family Radio's coverage of Sacramento is lacking? Doesn't Family Radio already have a radio station in Sacramento at 88.1 FM? That signal booms in bigtime south into Stockton. It is definately not a low power translator.

I was thinking the same thing, although the 88.1 (KEAR-FM, I believe) doesn't do that well into Sacramento proper. But I think it does better than 610. The 88.1 signal is on one of the tall towers in Walnut Grove, but it's fairly low power (6 KW IIRC). Originally it was also vertically polarized only, to keep from interfering with channel 6. I don't know if they've changed that or not now that analog TV 6 is no more.

Dave B.

 

[DaveBayArea]

Uh, KPIG didn't make it in the Bay Area. Sure, it was an AM, but the format was unique enough that people would have sought it out had they been interested in the format, just as Cantonese speakers seek out programming in Cantonese. KPIG may be a success in Freedom, but it wasn't in SF or in Chico where it was also tried for an extended time.

I know we've had this discussion before, but I still believe that a KPIG-type format with a focus on the Bay Area could make a dent on FM. The biggest trouble with Mapleton's version of extending KPIG is that they kept it Santa-Cruz-centric. I certainly understand why and don't fault them, but by doing that on the cheap they doomed their fledgling AM from the start.

While Hardly Strictly is free, so is radio. But let me ask you this: How many people who listen to a band on the radio go to the trouble to see them live? It's not inconceivable that a station's cume could be 2 to 3 times the attendance of Hardly Strictly. That's a reasonable audience. Put that together with a local presence (heck - you could easily clear enough of the artists at Hardly Strictly for a killer live broadcast) and you would have a radio station that could be at least as competitive as many of this market's current formats.

But nobody is going to be brave enough to try it.

Dave B.

 

[DavidKaye]

While Hardly Strictly is free, so is radio. But let me ask you this: How many people who listen to a band on the radio go to the trouble to see them live? It's not inconceivable that a station's cume could be 2 to 3 times the attendance of Hardly Strictly. That's a reasonable audience. Put that together with a local presence (heck - you could easily clear enough of the artists at Hardly Strictly for a killer live broadcast) and you would have a radio station that could be at least as competitive as many of this market's current formats.

But nobody is going to be brave enough to try it.

Nonsense. KPIG's home territory includes Hollister, home of the NCBS's biggest bluegrass and oldtime music festival. Believe me, if they were getting any sales due to artists appearing on KPIG it would be a Big Deal because bluegrass festivals are notorious for losing money.

 

[davideduardo]

But nobody is going to be brave enough to try it.

... or stupid enough.

That's a diary format. We are in a PPM world.

 

[oaklandfan2k11]

I Hope if KREV can yank Contemporary Hit Radio and bring back the Dance Format plus the CHR-Upbeat Stuff from the 1990's and today by renaming it back to KZQZ and will now use New York Fan by JAM Productions for their Jingle Package.

 

[DavidKaye]

Nobody reported any prediction about the slaughter of KGO's news/talk format. So there. These predictions don't mean a thing.

 

[415sf]

had a dream on new years eve, i flipped the dial and kfrc was back on with ron parker

 

[recto101]

Nobody reported any prediction about the slaughter of KGO's news/talk format. So there. These predictions don't mean a thing.

How about News 1590 KLIV AM San Jose they might have to wonder if they should move to FM.

 

[LKellerIII]

Nobody reported any prediction about the slaughter of KGO's news/talk format. So there. These predictions don't mean a thing.

Quite obviously, David - these annual "predictions" are as much the posters' wish-lists as they are predictions. Certainly, nobody posting here wanted Cumulus to have done what it did to KGO. A few posters probably predicted that Cumulus would blow the KGO talk hosts out the door to insert syndicated talk hosts - but I don't think anybody could have reasonably expected that KGO would become an also-ran AM only news station.

So there.

 

[NoMoreLurking]

These predictions don't mean a thing.

Radio Zindagi moves from 1550 to 810.

Hey, it makes at least as much sense as what's really going on.