JohnHendricks said:
John, you're contradicting yourself. Yes, in the overall New York book, suburban stations end up near the bottom because they only cover a small portion of the entire suburban market. That's why WALK-FM only has a 1.1 in the New York book, even though on Long Island they're close to a 7 share.
However, you're forgetting that 12+ doesn't really matter much, and that the real data...the geographic and demographic and daypart breakouts...are available to radio stations through Arbitron. Even the smallest suburban station can subscribe and get precise data on who is listening, when and where. Also, there's embedded books. There's a Long Island book, and embedded even within that is the Hamptons-Riverhead book for the East End. There's Bridgeport and New Haven books, Monmouth and Trenton books, and there was a Westchester book until a year or so ago. The suburban station thus won't care if it is getting an 0.3 in the New York book, because if they're based in, say, Monmouth, and are targeting that area....if they're one of the top dogs there, then they are a successful station.
Y107 failed *even though* it covered country friendly areas, including, yes, much of North and Central Jersey...as that area was covered in part by three transmitters...in Westchester, Long Branch and up in Northwestern Jersey. They also covered the East End of LI and Westchester county....all areas where country would theoretically stand a chance of doing rather well. Y-107 failed. It didn't fail because it didn't register in NYC. It failed because it didn't register anywhere in the region, despite putting in a strong signal in most of the suburbs.
WBAZ is another great example. The East End of LI is probably the least urban and most country-friendly area in Nassau and Suffolk counties. Country on WBAZ was a miserable failure. On the other hand, as one of many AC's in that small market, they're doing well, because the format sells. Also, 94.3 on LI couldn't get out of the 1's. Now, the station that is on, Island 94.3, can't get even get into the 1's in most books. But why have they succeeded where country has failed? Billing. If they can sell the format and are advertisers are reaching listeners within that 0.8 or 0.9 share (keeping in mind, also, that Island doesn't cover more than half of LI...so surely their numbers in Western Suffolk and Eastern Nassau, where their signal is best, are higher), then the format will do relatively well. It won't set the world on fire, but it will do well, and better than country. A radio station is a business, and if it can't make money with a particular format and serve its target audience, it doesn't matter what their 12+ number is.
And yes, there is an R&B slant to most NYC music stations because that's what sells in New York. New York has always been a fast-paced, rhythmic town. Musicradio 77 was a very fast paced Top 40 station. Then it was overtaken by the original 92 KTU, which brought disco to the airwaves 24-7. Z100 shot to the top for the same reasons, as did KTU in 1996 (replacing country, which had been the lowest-rated commercial FM in the city when the format flipped). Radio stations are going to air the music which sells, and in New York City, especially with its increasingly large proportion of minorities--R&B and related genres sell, whereas country does not. WLTW has been doing so well, in part, because they've shied away from exclusively playing lilly-white AC music and have thrown in some rhythmic and disco cuts which have appeal in NYC.
And no, "European-Americans" are not the majority in New York City any more. Here's the Census data from 2000 if you don't believe me: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/36/3651000.html.
I'm sorry, but the prospects for high TSL *or* high cume aren't there for country. If PLJ, a much more "mainstream" format by New York listening standards, and which gets its bread and butter from the suburbs, just like country would, can't break the low-2's, and the last country effort in NYC, WYNY--which had been on the air for several years and was established--ended its run below a 2 share, over a decade ago, with significant changes to the ethnic and racial makeup to the city since then that, if anything, are even more adverse to country....I'm just not optimistic at all. Free FM, with a 12+ in the low 1's, probably would be a greater money-maker than country, just by virtue of appealing to young males.
I don't defend all the practices of commercial radio and there's a lot that I certainly disagree with in the way commercial radio conducts its business, however, it absolutely is not a mystery to me why country isn't on the air in market #1.
