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Fox Proposes Deal For Conan O'Brien

A big part of the problem is that the late-night talk show world is quite crowded right now. Through most of the 80s, it was just Carson and Letterman...and they were back-to-back on the same network. Arsenio Hall comes along, but he's basically a young, urban alternative to Carson. Plus, Arsenio was able to get on a lot CBS affiliates that either pre-empted or delayed "CBS Late Night," and he got onto a few ABC affiliates, as well. There was room for Arsenio. Fox tried with Joan Rivers and Chevy Chase, and CBS tried with Pat Sajak, but those shows all fizzled quickly. Johnny Carson's retirement seemed to open up the floodgates.

Currently, there are five, count 'em...FIVE network talk shows airing in late night. That's a lot of hosts who are basically doing the same show on different sets with different bands. I think Conan is OK, but I'm not his biggest fan. I think he was perfect on NBC following Leno, but NBC has screwed that up. I think it was commendable that Conan didn't agree to let NBC push him back 30 minutes to make way for Jay, but there just isn't room for any more shows!
 
in the first episode he could appear as Scrooge and be visited by the ghosts of Joan Rivers,
Chevy Chase and Pat Sajak
 
I agree with the poster who talked about "expectations."

If Conan were syndicated or went to MyNetworkTV, as long as his show made money, in the end that is all that would matter. But he would seem like a loser if he came in 3rd, even if his show did well and made money.

It's about expectations. Seeing that writers are a dime a dozen, (yes they are, there's always talented people looking to break into the business, you just have to keep looking and you can produce quality on the cheap. Problem is people quit looking.)
 
I don't see why Conan couldn't just air at 11:35PM on the FOX network in order to accommodate those stations that have an 11PM newscast or strong syndicated programming in that time slot; I think the notion of 'getting a jump' on the other networks is overrated. Besides, late night shows often show a drop-off in viewership after the first half hour, so scheduling Conan at 11P may end up encouraging viewers to switch over halfway to Nightline, or Dave or Jay's monologues.
 
Don't forget another FOX late night show that didn't last long: Talk Show with Spike Fiederstein. It was only on Saturdays, but still.
 
We would probably fight any attempt by FOX to sign Conan to a 10pm deal. Even though our 10pm (CDT) newscast finishes 3rd or 4th, it still makes money for us. However, TMZ doesn't do much for us at 10:30.

Monday's 10:30 ratings were:
Two and a Half Men: 5.6
Leno: 4.4
Letterman: 4.3
TMZ: 2.9
 
Letterman had similar clearance issues with CBS affiliates during the early years too. It takes time.
Click to expand...

There were only two CBS affiliates that didn't carry Letterman's CBS show when it premiered. The two stations were KMEG in Sioux City, Iowa (thus the home office in Sioux City, Iowa bit) and KXJB in Fargo, North Dakota. There were some CBS affiliates that delayed Letterman (WUSA in Washington delayed him a full hour...they aired Arsenio first!). KMEG and KXJB both started airing Letterman in 1994 (don't know if those were live or delayed clearances), and many affiliates that delayed Letterman from the get-go were on board with live clearances within a year or two (with some stations, it was only a few months). There were some long-term holdouts, such as KMOV in St. Louis and KENS in San Antonio.
 
SteveRichards said:
I think he was perfect on NBC following Leno, but NBC has screwed that up.
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The only reason Conan got the Tonight Show was because
1. All the other networks were looking for a talent on their network and Conan wanted to leave Late Night and get his own show at 11 or 11:35 slot and more cash
2. NBC saw that Leno was getting older and were afraid that he would start losing in a few years so they went for the most logical decision
3. NBC wanted to keep Conan

NBC's only screw up was in keeping Conan. He couldn't possess any ratings at the 11PM and the 11:30 slot.

And in regards to TalkShow with Spike Feresten, he was on for only 3 seasons but he holds the record for the longest running late night talk show on FOX ;D
I loved his show! Most people never watched it because it was on at such an odd time but it was one of my favorite late night shows. It was only 30 mins leading it to be packed with comedy and Spike was a funny guy. Hopefully, someone will give him another shot at doing late night!
 
We would probably fight any attempt by FOX to sign Conan to a 10pm deal. Even though our 10pm (CDT) newscast finishes 3rd or 4th, it still makes money for us. However, TMZ doesn't do much for us at 10:30.

Monday's 10:30 ratings were:
Two and a Half Men: 5.6
Leno: 4.4
Letterman: 4.3
TMZ: 2.9
Click to expand...

Looks like the schedule on the Kansas City affiliates. "Two and a Half Men" kicks butt...no wonder KMBC still delays "Nightline" to 12:05.

NBC's only screw up was in keeping Conan. He couldn't possess any ratings at the 11PM and the 11:30 slot.
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NBC screwed up the one-two punch it had running Leno and Conan back-to-back. They should have left well enough alone and spared us Jimmy Fallon.
 
Mark said:
In any case if Conan couldn't beat Letterman is he going to do it now? If Leno is beating Letterman now, that means at best, FOX would have to settle for third place. Well most likely any how? Would this be good?

I think Conan needs to think about this. Right now his career is still good but if he fails at FOX he'll come off as totally washed up.

In Chicago on FOX32 "The Simpsons," does very well. So well in fact it's on three times a day (5pm, 6pm and 10:30pm). It would be interesting to see FOX sacrifice a definate ratings winner for this.
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Leno is beating Letterman now for one big reason: NBC's last hour of prime time is up 45% in post-olympic numbers compared to what Leno was getting before the Olympics. That has led to a huge boost in numbers for the late local news wich in turn has led to a far better lead in for the 11:35 time slot than Conan ever had.

I am surprised Fox wants to put Conan on at 11pm. I think they would have an easier time getting 11:35 clearances and I don't think the numbers for the show would be much different.
 
SteveRichards said:
There were only two CBS affiliates that didn't carry Letterman's CBS show when it premiered. The two stations were KMEG in Sioux City, Iowa (thus the home office in Sioux City, Iowa bit) and KXJB in Fargo, North Dakota.
Click to expand...
...actually, I believe WITI/6 Milwaukee passed on Letterman as well, sending his show over to Fox affiliate WCGV/24. This was shortly before it was announced that Fox would be moving in Milwaukee from WCGV to WITI as a result of the New World purchase. For a while, it was assumed that CBS would strike a deal with WCGV for primary affiliation (CBS had been on that dial position, WCAN-TV/25, when it first got a primary affiliate in Milwaukee). Instead, WCGV went with UPN, and CBS tried to negotiate deals with WTMJ-TV/4 (NBC), former affiliate WISN-TV/12, and even religious snake-oil distributor WVCY-TV/30 and one-lung Racine indie WJJA/49, before finally landing on WDJT/58...
 
SteveRichards said:
NBC screwed up the one-two punch it had running Leno and Conan back-to-back. They should have left well enough alone and spared us Jimmy Fallon.
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NBC wanted to keep that, but since Conan was getting other offers, they decided to kick Jay out of the seat. Conan's greediness virtually started this entire dilema.
Conan wanted out of 12:35, period.
 
TheRob said:
We would probably fight any attempt by FOX to sign Conan to a 10pm deal. Even though our 10pm (CDT) newscast finishes 3rd or 4th, it still makes money for us. However, TMZ doesn't do much for us at 10:30.
Monday's 10:30 ratings were:
Two and a Half Men: 5.6
Leno: 4.4
Letterman: 4.3
TMZ: 2.9
Click to expand...
The Nashville FOX affiliate has an hour and a half of news beginning at 9:00 p.m., followed by reruns of My Name is Earl. Don't know how well Earl is doing for them, but I never watch. I don't know if they would cut their newscast at 10:00 p.m. to start Conan then, but they had a story in their newscast one evening this week concerning the possibility of Conan coming to FOX.

Conan on FOX would probably win the ratings war for the first night, just out of sheer curiosity, but would then drop off very sharply after that.
 
It continues to amaze me this discussion concerns four "comedians" who would have never peaked above the TV radar of the 50's.

That's how far this genre has fallen.

Very sad.
 
Two issues: Audience demo and budget.

I agree with the earlier poster who said that it doesn't matter if Conan beats Leno or Letterman. That's not the point. For Fox it means network inroads into another daypart. So for Fox, it means going from zero. For Fox stations and affiliates, it's about give-back, and the deal. How many avails will they have to give back, and what is the potential upside for new business.

Off network syndication is a big business, and to clear those reruns on broadcast TV is big money. But TV programming is becoming more disposable. The high cost of filmed TV dramas is leading to the increase in reality TV and short term comedy. So five years from now, there will be less new off-network syndication than there is now.

Live programming is a different audience, and is more promotable than off-network syndication. Unless you're in a major market, you won't be getting big name guests on a regular basis. A live national show can do that, and provides something promotable for the affiliate during the day.

But ultimately it's going to be about making money. Launching a show with a $60 million budget may work at NBC, but the profit margin won't be that big, especially for the first few years. So Conan may have to take a cut on the budget to start, with the promise for more if and when the show takes off. Or his company eats a chunk of the production cost at the start.
 
Having said all this, I still believe Conan's best plan would be self-syndication with some major partners. And perhaps Fox is one of those partners, but the show wouldn't be restricted to Fox affiliates. It could go outside the network. Use the Oprah or Ellen model, but for late-night, similar to Arsenio. Conan has the cash to begin the financing. That may mean you're on the 4th or 5th string station in a market, but you're on at a better time. Channel 9 or 11 in NY instead of 5. I'd also suggest a repeat broadcast on a cable network, with some unique content, perhaps also within the Fox system. And don't count NBC Universal out of this. They need to beef up the content at their cable channels.
 
TheBigA said:
And don't count NBC Universal out of this. They need to beef up the content at their cable channels.
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"Need?" Where? CNBC? MSNBC? At this point, it's far from certain that would be a swap that moves the needle in the right direction. USA? Already near the top of the heap; it would have to be a good financial deal indeed to make that worthwhile. SyFy, perhaps, would be a match, but is a five-night-a-week model there what they'd look to do to bolster their numbers (which already are decent with recent successess)?
 
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