"IBiquity Digital's Make-or-Break Point Approaches"

[Mike Walker]

People still don't know what HD Radio IS. It's a misleading (and unfortunate) name. The marketing for it has been silly...leading people to believe they've already heard it. And market researchers are ASKING THE WRONG THINGS. If you ask someone "have you heard of HD radio?" and they've heard one of the stupid promos, they'll likely say "yes". It's also likely that they'll say "yes" they've HEARD HD Radio, just because they've heard a promo...or perhaps confused it with HDTV.

Know how to tell if they REALLY know what the hell it is? ASK THEM TO EXPLAIN TO YOU WHAT HD RADIO IS! Almost none till be able to explain it, or what it offers that analog doesn't (hell, for years millions think they've already had "digital radio" because of the digital displays. I said in the 80s "a time will come when they regret calling these damn things "digital"...when there's nothing digital about the AUDIO!) HD is at the beginning, and frankly the rollout effort has stumbled...not in technical terms, but in MARKETING terms. Where's the "radios falling out of the skies" type commercial for TV and Movie Theaters that launched XM? Where's the man with his hair being blown back-type print campaign that made Maxell such a success? Advertising ON RADIO is great. I believe in the power of radio. But I also believe that "advertising is like fertilizer...it only works right if you spread it around". Radio shouldn't rely SOLELY on radio! And frankly radios use of it's own medium has been a textbook example of what not to do. If I hadn't been in radio, and following the development of digital broadcast technology through the years, I'd be confused about what HD IS, and whether it could benefit me.

Many here think the world is divided into two camps...those who support HD Radio, and those who don't. Actually the two camps are those who debate the relative merits (or lack thereof) of HD Radio, a tiny minority (ALL OF US), and those who have no freakin' notion of what the hell it is...the vast majority of Americans. THAT must be changed. Any new technology must not only make people aware of what it is, but also HOW IT BENEFITS THEM!

I'm sick of people citing the Ipod as pointing to the "instant success" of the mp3 market. Anyone who really follows technology knows that the Ipod came six or seven years after the first mp3 players, and was evolutionary, not revolutionary. Like most "overnight sensations", mp3 and internet radio TOOK MANY YEARS. Still less than a third of Americans have an mp3 player. LESS THAN A THIRD (reference: Bridge Ratings). Still, that's many tens of millions in sales...a rousing success! Between 93 and 95 percent of Americans listen to terrestrial radio EVERY WEEK (also reference: Bridge Ratings). THAT is one helluva platform from which to launch a new technology, IF IT'S DONE RIGHT. To quote Winston Churchill, "This is not the beginning of the end, but perhaps it is the end of the beginning."

 

[PocketRadio]

To quote Winston Churchill, "This is not the beginning of the end, but perhaps it is the end of the beginning."

http://www.pitt.edu/~bookctr/tradebooks/goldstein/1574882791.jpg

 

[dbdigital]

I'm sick of people citing the Ipod as pointing to the "instant success" of the mp3 market. Anyone who really follows technology knows that the Ipod came six or seven years after the first mp3 players, and was evolutionary, not revolutionary. Like most "overnight sensations", mp3 and internet radio

That's too bad, Mike, that you're sick of hearing about the iPod because there is a lesson to be learned from it, especially since, as you said, there have been other MP3 players before it. But it's simplicity, ease of use, multifunctionality and elegant design made the iPod irresistible to consumers and an "instant" hit. And the Wall Street Journal reported that an estimated 19 million Americans would be interested in purchasing an iPhone, so it's not just industry insiders who are interested in the product.

Rather than hate Apple, you should hope and pray that they put HD-Radio into their next generation of iPods.

db

 

[PocketRadio]

THAT is one helluva platform from which to launch a new technology, IF IT'S DONE RIGHT. To quote Winston Churchill, "This is not the beginning of the end, but perhaps it is the end of the beginning."

Statsaholic is back, and HD Radio is still DOA:

http://www.statsaholic.com/hdradio.com+sirius.com+xmradio.com

Of course, Google Trends always confirmed that HD Radio is DOA:

http://www.google.com/trends?q="hd+radio",+sirius,+xm

 

[PocketRadio]

Rather than hate Apple, you should hope and pray that they put HD-Radio into their next generation of iPods.

db

At best, FM tuners will always be an expensive add-on for the iPod (analog FM tuners are $50) - as Ramsey pointed out, the iPod will never have built-in FM tuners. Lots-of-luck to an HD add-on tuner (heavy power consumption and poor reception).

 

[radiopilot]

Rather than hate Apple, you should hope and pray that they put HD-Radio into their next generation of iPods.

db

At best, FM tuners will always be an expensive add-on for the iPod (analog FM tuners are $50) - as Ramsey pointed out, the iPod will never have built-in FM tuners. Lots-of-luck to an HD add-on tuner (heavy power consumption and poor reception).

I bought my son this player from Samsung, it has the FM tuner in it and I asked him if he listens to the FM tuner, he indicated he doesn't listen to it, he downloads the music either from Itunes, or from the music site that came with the Samsung unit at the cost of 99 cents for each song.

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?skuId=8273192&st=samsung&type=product&id=1170290765847

So you see adding FM/AM to any mp3 device whether analog or HD will do nothing to get terrestrial radio in the hands of the consumer as they have voted with their pocket books to exclude radio.

Radiopilot

 

[R.F. Burns]

Rather than hate Apple, you should hope and pray that they put HD-Radio into their next generation of iPods.

db

At best, FM tuners will always be an expensive add-on for the iPod (analog FM tuners are $50) - as Ramsey pointed out, the iPod will never have built-in FM tuners. Lots-of-luck to an HD add-on tuner (heavy power consumption and poor reception).

I bought my son this player from Samsung, it has the FM tuner in it and I asked him if he listens to the FM tuner, he indicated he doesn't listen to it, he downloads the music either from Itunes, or from the music site that came with the Samsung unit at the cost of 99 cents for each song.

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?skuId=8273192&st=samsung&type=product&id=1170290765847

So you see adding FM/AM to any mp3 device whether analog or HD will do nothing to get terrestrial radio in the hands of the consumer as they have voted with their pocket books to exclude radio.

Radiopilot

Ask your son where he first hears the new music he downloads to his MP3 device. Does he just say hey, I think this is a nice title, or is it the 30 second sample that peaks his interest of does he hear a freind playing the song and decide to download it for himself? If that's the case where do his friends hear the songs they download onto their I-Pods? Funy thing is that with all the doom & gloom I keep reading from the anti IBOC people (and the point of IBOC is to get those younger people to listen to radio by providing more alternatives but that's another topic) the record companies and the artsists still feel that radio play is essential to having a hit. No, not 10 or 15 years from now but at present and that is what counts.

 

[Mike Walker]

Having 15 million people "interested in buying iphone" and SELLING 15 million, is completely different. If anything near 15 million iphones are purchased (while only AT&T sells them), I'll buy one. And eat it.

Most people who want cell phones have one. And most of them are locked into multi-year contracts. Plus the vast majority of THEM are not AT&T (Cingular) customers. If it was an "open" phone that you could use with your existing contract, then I'd feel better about it. Apple says "no phone has done this before". Nope...but everything I've seen an Iphone do in those commercials can be done by my Dell Axim X51v PocketPC...with full VGA resolution, 30fps video, wi-fi, TWO expansion slots, Bluetooth, vast codec support (with free downloads), etc. And you see how that sold!

 

[wgliradio]

Ask your son where he first hears the new music he downloads to his MP3 device. Does he just say hey, I think this is a nice title, or is it the 30 second sample that peaks his interest of does he hear a freind playing the song and decide to download it for himself? If that's the case where do his friends hear the songs they download onto their I-Pods? Funy thing is that with all the doom & gloom I keep reading from the anti IBOC people (and the point of IBOC is to get those younger people to listen to radio by providing more alternatives but that's another topic) the record companies and the artsists still feel that radio play is essential to having a hit. No, not 10 or 15 years from now but at present and that is what counts.

Problem is, alot of the music kids have on their IPODS doesn't get wide airplay. Not all, but there is a very good amount. Much of it is shared on MySpace or YouTube. Kids and teens are very savvy with how they network and usually popular stuff spreads like wildfire w/o the need of radio, much like a funny video clip etc.

 

[radiopilot]

Rather than hate Apple, you should hope and pray that they put HD-Radio into their next generation of iPods.

db

At best, FM tuners will always be an expensive add-on for the iPod (analog FM tuners are $50) - as Ramsey pointed out, the iPod will never have built-in FM tuners. Lots-of-luck to an HD add-on tuner (heavy power consumption and poor reception).

I bought my son this player from Samsung, it has the FM tuner in it and I asked him if he listens to the FM tuner, he indicated he doesn't listen to it, he downloads the music either from Itunes, or from the music site that came with the Samsung unit at the cost of 99 cents for each song.

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?skuId=8273192&st=samsung&type=product&id=1170290765847

So you see adding FM/AM to any mp3 device whether analog or HD will do nothing to get terrestrial radio in the hands of the consumer as they have voted with their pocket books to exclude radio.

Radiopilot

Ask your son where he first hears the new music he downloads to his MP3 device. Does he just say hey, I think this is a nice title, or is it the 30 second sample that peaks his interest of does he hear a freind playing the song and decide to download it for himself? If that's the case where do his friends hear the songs they download onto their I-Pods? Funy thing is that with all the doom & gloom I keep reading from the anti IBOC people (and the point of IBOC is to get those younger people to listen to radio by providing more alternatives but that's another topic) the record companies and the artsists still feel that radio play is essential to having a hit. No, not 10 or 15 years from now but at present and that is what counts.

Actually to answer that question you'd have to be very familiar with Anime, Gundam, Inuyasha, Final Fantasy 7 -12, Super Smash Brothers, etc., also he gets the soundtracks from his favorite movies and downloads it to his mp3 player, as far as music on the radio he doesn't listen to it, he listens to whatever internet or satelite radio we have either in the car or the house, also from file sharing with his friends. I can't tell you where his friends listen to the music from but they too don't lug a radio around either... funny but he's a lifeguard at our club pool and darn if it's not an Apple Ipod commercial to see all these kids with mp3 players stuck to their ears and by the looks of the units with the patented circular wheel you know it as an Ipod.

The only time he listens to radio is when he is the dj on his weekly show on the station and that's the 'on air' monitor.


Radiopilot

 

[R.F. Burns]

Ask your son where he first hears the new music he downloads to his MP3 device. Does he just say hey, I think this is a nice title, or is it the 30 second sample that peaks his interest of does he hear a freind playing the song and decide to download it for himself? If that's the case where do his friends hear the songs they download onto their I-Pods? Funy thing is that with all the doom & gloom I keep reading from the anti IBOC people (and the point of IBOC is to get those younger people to listen to radio by providing more alternatives but that's another topic) the record companies and the artsists still feel that radio play is essential to having a hit. No, not 10 or 15 years from now but at present and that is what counts.

Problem is, alot of the music kids have on their IPODS doesn't get wide airplay. Not all, but there is a very good amount. Much of it is shared on MySpace or YouTube. Kids and teens are very savvy with how they network and usually popular stuff spreads like wildfire w/o the need of radio, much like a funny video clip etc.

While that may be true I have two young ladies in college and they and their friends here most new music 'Hit" on the radio. If things like Youtube distribution was now The way to get new music heard, we wouldn't be hearing about payola scandles where record companies pay radio stations to play their music. The big acts are still first heard using the traditional methods.

 

[dbdigital]

Rather than hate Apple, you should hope and pray that they put HD-Radio into their next generation of iPods.

db

At best, FM tuners will always be an expensive add-on for the iPod (analog FM tuners are $50) - as Ramsey pointed out, the iPod will never have built-in FM tuners. Lots-of-luck to an HD add-on tuner (heavy power consumption and poor reception).

I bought my son this player from Samsung, it has the FM tuner in it and I asked him if he listens to the FM tuner, he indicated he doesn't listen to it, he downloads the music either from Itunes, or from the music site that came with the Samsung unit at the cost of 99 cents for each song.

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?skuId=8273192&st=samsung&type=product&id=1170290765847

So you see adding FM/AM to any mp3 device whether analog or HD will do nothing to get terrestrial radio in the hands of the consumer as they have voted with their pocket books to exclude radio.

Radiopilot

Ask your son where he first hears the new music he downloads to his MP3 device. Does he just say hey, I think this is a nice title, or is it the 30 second sample that peaks his interest of does he hear a freind playing the song and decide to download it for himself? If that's the case where do his friends hear the songs they download onto their I-Pods? Funy thing is that with all the doom & gloom I keep reading from the anti IBOC people (and the point of IBOC is to get those younger people to listen to radio by providing more alternatives but that's another topic) the record companies and the artsists still feel that radio play is essential to having a hit. No, not 10 or 15 years from now but at present and that is what counts.

Actually to answer that question you'd have to be very familiar with Anime, Gundam, Inuyasha, Final Fantasy 7 -12, Super Smash Brothers, etc., also he gets the soundtracks from his favorite movies and downloads it to his mp3 player, as far as music on the radio he doesn't listen to it, he listens to whatever internet or satelite radio we have either in the car or the house, also from file sharing with his friends. I can't tell you where his friends listen to the music from but they too don't lug a radio around either... funny but he's a lifeguard at our club pool and darn if it's not an Apple Ipod commercial to see all these kids with mp3 players stuck to their ears and by the looks of the units with the patented circular wheel you know it as an Ipod.

The only time he listens to radio is when he is the dj on his weekly show on the station and that's the 'on air' monitor.


Radiopilot

Along with this, video games is another vehicle in which kids are finding new music. As video game programmers purchase music from obscure bands as soundtracks, the bands get known and kids download their music (this is from a TV news report I saw last week).

Perhaps as the bands get more popular, terrestrial radio may pick them up and put a single in rotation. But, once again, we see that terrestrial radio is not at the forefront when it comes to finding new music.

db

 

[dbdigital]

Having 15 million people "interested in buying iphone" and SELLING 15 million, is completely different. If anything near 15 million iphones are purchased (while only AT&T sells them), I'll buy one. And eat it.

Most people who want cell phones have one. And most of them are locked into multi-year contracts. Plus the vast majority of THEM are not AT&T (Cingular) customers. If it was an "open" phone that you could use with your existing contract, then I'd feel better about it. Apple says "no phone has done this before". Nope...but everything I've seen an Iphone do in those commercials can be done by my Dell Axim X51v PocketPC...with full VGA resolution, 30fps video, wi-fi, TWO expansion slots, Bluetooth, vast codec support (with free downloads), etc. And you see how that sold!

Here again, you miss the point. It's not a matter of actually selling iPhones, it is the excitement and "buzz" that this product is creating with consumers (according to the IDC survey, 60% of the nearly 500 people polled said they would buy an iPhone but not at the 500-600 dollar price point and/or not until their current contract runs out).

The point is that this is the kind of excitement HD-Radio should be getting but isn't. Why? As it stands, the best HD-R can hope for is a kind of 'Invasion of the Body Snatchers' takeover in which, one day, there will be no choice...all radios will be HD-R.

db

 

[PocketRadio]

The point is that this is the kind of excitement HD-Radio should be getting but isn't. Why? As it stands, the best HD-R can hope for is a kind of 'Invasion of the Body Snatchers' takeover in which, one day, there will be no choice...all radios will be HD-R.

db

"Trying to Figure Out HD Radio" 5/2007

"In five to seven years, says Struble, you won't walk into an electronics store and ask to buy an HD Radio. Simply ask for a radio, he says, and you'll get one with HD capabilities already built in..."

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/may2007/tc20070525_027388.htm

Struble is either delusional, or has a dirty-little-secret. People don't buy radios anymore, but things with radios in them, such as alarm clocks; so, now we will be spending $50 - $100 for HD alarm clocks, with AM-loop and external FM-dipole antennas !

 

[R.F. Burns]

Having 15 million people "interested in buying iphone" and SELLING 15 million, is completely different. If anything near 15 million iphones are purchased (while only AT&T sells them), I'll buy one. And eat it.

Most people who want cell phones have one. And most of them are locked into multi-year contracts. Plus the vast majority of THEM are not AT&T (Cingular) customers. If it was an "open" phone that you could use with your existing contract, then I'd feel better about it. Apple says "no phone has done this before". Nope...but everything I've seen an Iphone do in those commercials can be done by my Dell Axim X51v PocketPC...with full VGA resolution, 30fps video, wi-fi, TWO expansion slots, Bluetooth, vast codec support (with free downloads), etc. And you see how that sold!

Here again, you miss the point. It's not a matter of actually selling iPhones, it is the excitement and "buzz" that this product is creating with consumers (according to the IDC survey, 60% of the nearly 500 people polled said they would buy an iPhone but not at the 500-600 dollar price point and/or not until their current contract runs out).

The point is that this is the kind of excitement HD-Radio should be getting but isn't. Why? As it stands, the best HD-R can hope for is a kind of 'Invasion of the Body Snatchers' takeover in which, one day, there will be no choice...all radios will be HD-R.

db

I guess this is a case of a person wanting to know what they want to know. I could care less about I-Phones. I have an LG that does everything I'd want a phone to do and an I-pod for music replacing my walkman/cd walkman but not my radio.

 

[R.F. Burns]

The point is that this is the kind of excitement HD-Radio should be getting but isn't. Why? As it stands, the best HD-R can hope for is a kind of 'Invasion of the Body Snatchers' takeover in which, one day, there will be no choice...all radios will be HD-R.

db

"Trying to Figure Out HD Radio" 5/2007

"In five to seven years, says Struble, you won't walk into an electronics store and ask to buy an HD Radio. Simply ask for a radio, he says, and you'll get one with HD capabilities already built in..."

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/may2007/tc20070525_027388.htm

Struble is either delusional, or has a dirty-little-secret. People don't buy radios anymore, but things with radios in them, such as alarm clocks; so, now we will be spending $50 - $100 for HD alarm clocks, with AM-loop and external FM-dipole antennas !

Keep dreaming. Radio is still far and wide very successful and profitable. Next thing you'll tell us that no one watches TV any more because they have video I-pods. If you relly believe that radio is nothing more than a juke box then you are nuts. Not an insult, just an observation.

 

[PocketRadio]

Keep dreaming. Radio is still far and wide very successful and profitable. Next thing you'll tell us that no one watches TV any more because they have video I-pods. If you relly believe that radio is nothing more than a juke box then you are nuts. Not an insult, just an observation.

"When radio ignores under-25's, under-25's go away"

"Arbitron has already shown declines among teens (see the stats from the NYT article below), a phenomenon which is easily explained and should surprise us not at all. Ditto for 18-24's."

http://www.hear2.com/2006/09/when_radio_igno.html

"Flat Industry Growth Hurts Radio One"

"Radio One Inc. of Lanham, the nation's largest radio network targeted at African American audiences, said yesterday that first-quarter profit fell 73 percent because of flat growth in the radio industry, programming challenges at its large Los Angeles station and higher compensation costs."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/04/AR2006050401844.html

TSL is down significantly and growth/profits are flat.

 

[Mike Walker]

Sometimes radio growth is "flat". Sometimes it expands greatly. Around here, local sales are "flat" (conditions in many small towns resemble a recession!) but national sales are up. "Flat" growth, when you're already very profitable, is a far cry from "not profitable". The fact that revenue growth is expected EVERY year, and usually happens, speaks volumes about the health of radio!

 

[MotoMuzak]

"Keep dreaming. Radio is still far and wide very successful and profitable. Next thing you'll tell us that no one watches TV any more because they have video I-pods. If you relly believe that radio is nothing more than a juke box then you are nuts. Not an insult, just an observation."

R.F. Burns--

It appears you have never heard Portland (OR) radio stations, have you???

With possibly the sole exemption of the five VHF stations between 88.1-91.9 MHz, practically ALL ('specially the CBSes in worst case) are little more than lifeless, automated jukeboxes.

MW not so much, but that's really a moot point because majority of the English-language MW stations here are talkers, save for the Music Of Your Life and Radio Disney. (Can't really even figger out how the latter mentioned isn't much more than a jukebox itself.)

I have heard the several IBAC FMs here, most don't really appear much different in terms of programming, in this regard.

 

[R.F. Burns]

"Keep dreaming. Radio is still far and wide very successful and profitable. Next thing you'll tell us that no one watches TV any more because they have video I-pods. If you relly believe that radio is nothing more than a juke box then you are nuts. Not an insult, just an observation."

R.F. Burns--

It appears you have never heard Portland (OR) radio stations, have you???

With possibly the sole exemption of the five VHF stations between 88.1-91.9 MHz, practically ALL ('specially the CBSes in worst case) are little more than lifeless, automated jukeboxes.

MW not so much, but that's really a moot point because majority of the English-language MW stations here are talkers, save for the Music Of Your Life and Radio Disney. (Can't really even figger out how the latter mentioned isn't much more than a jukebox itself.)

I have heard the several IBAC FMs here, most don't really appear much different in terms of programming, in this regard.

No, I live in NYC. As for AM, the reason for all the talk is that no one today wants to put up with the limited bandwidth staticy sound. Radio Disney is used as a loss leader and its only reason for existing is to keep the Disney brand name on the mind of the public. I keep hearing how radio is a jukebox and I also hear how people don't want to hear DJ's any more. They only want the music or so they say. Sure there were a handful of creative FM stations in the 60's, but I remember lots of jukeboxes playing beautiful music for hours on end. What type of programing do you want to see on HD 2 & 3 streams that you aren't already hearing. Please don't repeat the local radio mantra. First, in many of the smaller markets it might be financially practical to hire a staff for a venue which at this time has very few listeners and no commecial income. I have visited many markets in this country which for years have been filled with cheap syndicated programing which stations air because the national host sounds much more professional and slick then what can be produced locally, doesn't require a staff to produce a show which means lower costs for the owner and most importantly, some of the affiliated stations in markets such as Portland receive compensation for airing the show. That said, I still hear plenty of locally produced programs in morning and afternoon drive. Outside of those two day parts, you might as well turn off the transmitter for many of these stations.