Lkeller said:
Pat Cook said:
I guess it's possible, but I have to wonder why Fox has decided to jump into the overcrowded late-night talk show fray NOW. It would have been smarter to pick up Conan after he left the Tonight Show. As a network that works hard to attract younger viewers, Leno seems like the wrong choice.
As for Jay, I think he'd do it- even though he'd get less money. From what I've heard, he's already taken a couple of pay cuts recently at NBC, and I'm sure he has enough money in the bank for 10 lifetimes. And he's a person who likes to work - can't see him retiring.
Llew:
If you follow the link at the bottom of the Fox News article and read the New York Post piece, it explains that FOX pulled back from Conan in 2010 over issues including his lack of compelling ratings at NBC. The head of the FOX affiliates board says Jay is a different story and they're ready to do it if it makes business sense.
Consider it from FOX's point of view:
NBC is creating chaos. Arsenio is coming back in syndication, mostly on FOX competitors. Letting Arsenio establish himself without a response and allowing Fallon and Kimmel to grow could lock FOX out of late-night (a lucrative time period) for another generation.
But if they put Jay on after FOX late local news, that starts him at 11/10 central. He's getting to his big-name guest about the time Dave and the two Jimmys are just getting started.
If Jay works, he damages ABC, CBS and NBC local late news, and the lead-ins to Kimmel, Letterman and Fallon, as well as possibly converting a significant portion of those viewers to FOX late local newscasts, boosting O&O and affiliate ratings and revenue. That, combined with the ability to dump 60 minutes of syndicated programming the stations pay tens of thousands a week to air, is a big plus for affiliate bottom lines.
Even if he's merely competitive in the ratings with the other three shows, all the above holds. But if he wins...if Fallon's not ready or merely splits the Kimmel audience, if Jay viewers follow him to FOX en masse, if people end up hating NBC enough over how they've treated Jay....actually, you only need one of those things to happen to win the timeslot, and all three are possible....the upside is enormous. The only real risk is if Jay completely bombs, and like him or not, he's got enough of a fan base to make that a relatively low risk.
FOX has traditionally skewed a bit young, but has matured over the years. And Leno's audience isn't geriatric. Jay himself is 62, but he's the Energizer bunny. He's got 10 years left, easy. In those 10 years, CBS will almost certainly have to replace Letterman and it's conceivable that NBC (not known for loyalty to its talent) could be a host or two beyond Jimmy Fallon, still trying to find something that works.