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Jay Leno To Fox Next Year?

Saw this blurb the other day and laughed. "If they present the the right business plan.." is the key phrase. The Fox affiliates will not clear this show at 11e/10c without some kind of huge payoff from Fox. They'll have to have it to buy out syndication contracts (or pay penalties, run make-goods, etc) to make this not a huge money loser for them.

Many Fox affiliates (and O&O's) are actually already WINNING that time slot. In order to clear Leno those affiliates will have to give up a bunch of advertising time (money) in exchange for a product that's already lower rated than what they're running. I just don't see them easily agreeing to do this. I totally understand why Fox would want to do it, but even that is somewhat suspect given the cost involved and the fact their O&O's already do well in this time period.

One other possible complicating factor is that many of the O&O's also run news at 11e/10c and they're not likely to want to exchange news advertising avails for Leno advertising avails. (News brings higher CPM) The only benefit to doing Leno at that time would be they could probably cut back on news costs, but that may not offset the change in ad rates.

Bottom line is that I think Fox will find the price too high and the potential benefit too low to make it worth the gamble.
 
If Jay Leno were to go to Fox, local Fox O&O WFLD Chicago would have to give up repeats of TMZ & Dish Nation for Jay Leno. I'm not sure how well those shows do in that timeslot, but when they had Simpsons repeats in the same timeslots, the ratings were higher than the 9pm newscast. At least in Chicago, it can't hurt Fox too much if the experiment doesn't work, because they can just go back to syndicated programming. This Fox station tried a 10pm news once, & it failed even worse than their 9pm news has ever done. At least in Chicago, it's less of a risk at 10pm, since WLS-TV (ABC), WMAQ-TV (NBC), & WBBM-TV (CBS) do 10pm news, & those stations won't give up their newscasts at 10pm. In the central time zone, most Fox affiliates that have news have it on at 9pm, & usually syndicated programming at 10pm.
 
Jay Leno

Maybe Jay should sign a secret agreement with FOX. Then pull a Jack Paar and walk off the show in the middle of production
 
Re: Jay Leno

1069_KIFR said:
Maybe Jay should sign a secret agreement with FOX. Then pull a Jack Paar and walk off the show in the middle of production
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Which would make lawyers happy since NBC would sue Jay for non-performance of his contract, and undoubtedly Fox for whatever legal reason they can find.
 
Dave said:
If Jay Leno were to go to Fox, local Fox O&O WFLD Chicago would have to give up repeats of TMZ & Dish Nation for Jay Leno. I'm not sure how well those shows do in that timeslot, but when they had Simpsons repeats in the same timeslots, the ratings were higher than the 9pm newscast. At least in Chicago, it can't hurt Fox too much if the experiment doesn't work, because they can just go back to syndicated programming.
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Uh, no they can't because someone else will pick up those shows.
 
tested said:
Dave said:
If Jay Leno were to go to Fox, local Fox O&O WFLD Chicago would have to give up repeats of TMZ & Dish Nation for Jay Leno. I'm not sure how well those shows do in that timeslot, but when they had Simpsons repeats in the same timeslots, the ratings were higher than the 9pm newscast. At least in Chicago, it can't hurt Fox too much if the experiment doesn't work, because they can just go back to syndicated programming.
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Uh, no they can't because someone else will pick up those shows.
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Most FOX O&Os are duopolies. They'd play out the contact on the sister station. If disaster struck, they could shift them back over to the mothership.
 
tested said:
Dave said:
If Jay Leno were to go to Fox, local Fox O&O WFLD Chicago would have to give up repeats of TMZ & Dish Nation for Jay Leno. I'm not sure how well those shows do in that timeslot, but when they had Simpsons repeats in the same timeslots, the ratings were higher than the 9pm newscast. At least in Chicago, it can't hurt Fox too much if the experiment doesn't work, because they can just go back to syndicated programming.
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Uh, no they can't because someone else will pick up those shows.
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You have it wrong on that one. Since WFLD airs all syndicated programming outside of primetime (7-9pm CT & 6-9pm CT Sundays only), they have newer episodes during the daytime, & the repeats in the late evening hours. As Michael hagerty stated, they have a number of duopolies, & they also own WPWR-TV in Chicagoland (station licensed to Gary, IN, but has a full market signal). If they ever have to make room for one show on WFLD, they can always move another show to their sister station, WPWR-TV. So Fox has themselves covered on this one. Besides, TMZ & Dish Nation at 5 & 5:30pm on WFLD for newer episodes, while the repeats are at 10 & 10:30pm.

I don't know about Dish nation, but the only other station that might show interest in TMZ is WCIU ( owned by Weigel Broadcasting), airs mostly court shows & talk shows Jerry Springer, & Steve Wilkos during the daytime hours. For now, Fox has Weigel locked out of TMZ.
 
Between 11:00 and 1:00, the Fox affiliate in the SF Bay Area (KTVU 2) runs Seinfeld, How I Met Your Mother, TMZ, and Dish Nation. I don't know how their ratings stack up compared to the 4 talks shows, but I can't imagine they would want to give up that much advertising revenue. The Bay Area's top rated news is the KTVU 10 O'Clock News, though they don't run news at 11:00.
 
Lkeller said:
Between 11:00 and 1:00, the Fox affiliate in the SF Bay Area (KTVU 2) runs Seinfeld, How I Met Your Mother, TMZ, and Dish Nation. I don't know how their ratings stack up compared to the 4 talks shows, but I can't imagine they would want to give up that much advertising revenue. The Bay Area's top rated news is the KTVU 10 O'Clock News, though they don't run news at 11:00.
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Llew: Local ad rates fall sharply after midnight, so only two of those shows are generating serious cash.

All of them have a barter component, where the station splits the ad time with the syndicator.

Odds are, local avails in an hour of Jay Leno would roughly equal the number of minutes they get now, and if Jay performs well, the station could conceivably sell that time for more money than they're getting for the syndicated shows.

Move the costs of the syndicated shows off KTVU's books and onto sister KICU's (did I get the calls right?) and this goes from slight net loss or break-even at 11 PM to a nice profit. It gets better if a significant portion of Jay's audience (presumably watching the local NBC late news) changes its news viewing habits and watches KTVU at 10. Enough of that, and ad rates and revenues for the 10 PM hour go up, as well, again increasing profit directly attributable to having Jay in late night.
 
Yes - KICU, as in "I see you," not 'intensive care unit.' Cox actually already shares programming between the two stations. For example, Seinfeld and How I Met Your Mother run on both KTVU and KICU, though at different times of the day, obviously.

Informative info - thanks, Michael.
 
I think the Fox O&O in D/FW would resist a Leno to Fox at 10CT move. KDFW/4's news ratings at 10 are always competitive with WFAA/8, KXAS/5 and KTVT/11. The D/FW market at 10pm is pretty cutthroat, and KDFW dropping news to make way for an hour of Leno (even if it bit into the ratings for the other three, and Nightline/Letterman/whoever Leno's replacement is) would not be a good move. Besides, in this market there are a lot of folks who are used to watching news at 10pm (which is why KDAF/CW 33 and KTXA/21's newscasts have never made big waves outside of PT - in fact, KTXA's 7-9pm newscast was cancelled), and if KDFW dropped its newscasts their ratings would take a nosedive, even if Leno was FOX's biggest hit ever.
 
Again, remember that revenue trumps ratings. And profit trumps both.

The formula I laid out for Llew is how the affiliate GMs will analyze it. And word in the NY papers and elsewhere is the affiliates like the idea.

There are moments when a station or network has to make a big move in order to secure a larger piece of the overall pie. At some point, especially if NBC becomes a perpetual also-ran, expect FOX to make other moves that make them more of a traditional network.
 
Dan Dennis said:
I think the Fox O&O in D/FW would resist a Leno to Fox at 10CT move. KDFW/4's news ratings at 10 are always competitive with WFAA/8, KXAS/5 and KTVT/11. The D/FW market at 10pm is pretty cutthroat, and KDFW dropping news to make way for an hour of Leno (even if it bit into the ratings for the other three, and Nightline/Letterman/whoever Leno's replacement is) would not be a good move. Besides, in this market there are a lot of folks who are used to watching news at 10pm (which is why KDAF/CW 33 and KTXA/21's newscasts have never made big waves outside of PT - in fact, KTXA's 7-9pm newscast was cancelled), and if KDFW dropped its newscasts their ratings would take a nosedive, even if Leno was FOX's biggest hit ever.
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Would they be willing to move the newscast to KDFI?

I've always thought the problem with Leno at 10 was that NBC didn't commit to it. Had they stuck him at 10:35 and moved local news to 10, I doubt the affiliates would be complaining so much except for the initial move of their newscasts, and some of them might even leap at the chance.
 
nomadcowatbk said:
Would Fox let the higher performing the affiliates delay Leno like ABC lets KMBC delay JK by an hour?
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No. It's already been mentioned that FOX affiliation contracts require any late night show the network might launch to be run "in pattern" (in adherence with the network schedule).

Everyone benefits (stations and the network) if Jay does well. Allowing individual markets to alter his airtime reduces the odds of the show performing as well as it can, by removing Jay's head start advantage over Fallon, Letterman and Kimmel, and, on the coasts, pushing half or all of the show past midnight, where ad rates are lower.

ABC shouldn't allow it with Kimmel, either. It's a holdover from the doldrums of Nightline, when the network didn't have anything with greater ratings potential to put in the timeslot.
 
nomadcowatbk said:
Would Fox let the higher performing the affiliates delay Leno like ABC lets KMBC delay JK by an hour?
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Until Oprah ended her talk show in 2011, ABC O&O WLS-TV delayed Jimmy Kimmel by an hour to reair same day episodes of Oprah, because to WLS-TV, their ratings & revenue were higher by having Oprah repeats rather than Jimmy Kimmel on at 11:05pm. His show has since been moved to 10:35pm back in January. For now, WLS-TV has Katie repeats at 1am, & Windy City Live repeats at midnight.
 
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