Jay Leno To Fox Next Year?

[SteveRichards]

A number of CBS affiliates in some medium and large markets still delay Craig Ferguson by 30 minutes. Off-hand, I don't know of any NBC affiliates that currently delay Jimmy Fallon.

 

[editthis]

My NBC affiliate has NEVER aired Last Call with Carson Daly, not saying it's necessarily a bad thing, just stating the fact.

 

[LKellerIII]

Would Fox let the higher performing the affiliates delay Leno like ABC lets KMBC delay JK by an hour?

No. It's already been mentioned that FOX affiliation contracts require any late night show the network might launch to be run "in pattern" (in adherence with the network schedule).

Everyone benefits (stations and the network) if Jay does well. Allowing individual markets to alter his airtime reduces the odds of the show performing as well as it can, by removing Jay's head start advantage over Fallon, Letterman and Kimmel, and, on the coasts, pushing half or all of the show past midnight, where ad rates are lower.

ABC shouldn't allow it with Kimmel, either. It's a holdover from the doldrums of Nightline, when the network didn't have anything with greater ratings potential to put in the timeslot.

If this happens, I bet it will chap Conan's ass to have Jay Leno (of all people) running against him at 11:00.

Personally, I won't be watching Jay. I have nothing against him - he seems like a nice guy who deserves his success. But I've never found his comedy or interviewing skills compelling. 11:00 is past my bedtime, though I DVR both Conan and Daily Show/Colbert for viewing the next evening.

 

[michael hagerty]

Would Fox let the higher performing the affiliates delay Leno like ABC lets KMBC delay JK by an hour?

Until Oprah ended her talk show in 2011, ABC O&O WLS-TV delayed Jimmy Kimmel by an hour to reair same day episodes of Oprah, because to WLS-TV, their ratings & revenue were higher by having Oprah repeats rather than Jimmy Kimmel on at 11:05pm. His show has since been moved to 10:35pm back in January. For now, WLS-TV has Katie repeats at 1am, & Windy City Live repeats at midnight.

In her later years, Oprah became so expensive ($90,000 a week here in Phoenix) that Harpo Productions had to give stations a free second run of the show so that they could break even or make a modest profit on commercial sales. That required the replay to be in a decent timeslot, which tended to cause a scheduling issue later in the day.

GMs started out willing to pay the huge fees simply to keep Oprah out of the hands of the competition, but it became a big burden, and most were relieved when she called it quits. They now have lower-rated shows, but the fees are such they can make a decent profit.

 

[Joseph_Gallant]

I don't see Jay Leno moving to Fox.

Not that network's kind of show and there would be too many problems with 11 P.M. ET/PT local news on some Fox stations, including a handful of O&O's.

But, if Jay does continue elsewhere after leaving NBC, I could see Leno renting the Burbank facility he's been using for "Tonight".

 

[michael hagerty]

I don't see Jay Leno moving to Fox.

Not that network's kind of show and there would be too many problems with 11 P.M. ET/PT local news on some Fox stations, including a handful of O&O's.

But, if Jay does continue elsewhere after leaving NBC, I could see Leno renting the Burbank facility he's been using for "Tonight".

This keeps coming up, so: Define "that network's kind of show".

A lot of people focus on The Simpsons, Family Guy and American Dad, but this is also the network that gave us House and Bones and 24. I don't see a huge difference between those shows and any other network's hour-long dramas.

As for problems with 11PM news, there is no problem. The affiliates have already agreed to surrender the time when the network said it was ready.

FOX wants in to late night. What kept them from going with Conan was his ratings track record. Not an issue with Jay, who has even taken back the lead in 18-49 after Kimmel's first couple of weeks. Take Jay, let Fallon split Kimmel's audience and let CBS deal with a Dave successor. Meantime, you've got the only stable show in late night (which is all about habitual viewing)...because...and you can bet on this...they'll change as little as they possibly can. You'll be watching the same show, but with the FOX bug in the lower right corner instead of the peacock.

If, on the other hand, FOX passes, Arsenio establishes himself on direct competitors in most markets, CBS sucks up talent for Dave's replacement and it's another decade or two (and a billion or so in lost revenue) before FOX can take a serious run at late night again.

 

[1069_KIFR]

FOX has to strike while the iron is hot.

 

[Joseph_Gallant]

Define "(Jay Leno not being) that network's(Fox) kind of show".

It's about demographics.

In the 1990's, a Jay Leno talk/variety show on Fox would have made a lot of demographic sense, given that network's traditional reliance on younger demos.

But even though Leno is still number-one in the 18-49 demographic, he's not as dominant in it as he once was, and I suspect the average age of the "Tonight Show" viewer is now significantly older than that of most Fox prime-time programming.

Yes, his producers could book a lot of guests who would appeal to the 18-34 and 18-49 demographics, but would that be enough??

In fact, I wonder if the average age of viewers of sitcom reruns that most Fox affiliates run at 11 or 11:30 P.M. (ET/PT) is younger than that of "The Tonight Show".

Thus, I think Fox might pass on Leno, and if they do re-enter the late-night talk/variety wars, it would be with a younger host(ess) who might be able to host such a show (if his/her show becomes popular) for two decades.

I could actually see Fox make a run at Tina Fey because she would:

(1) Be much younger than Jay Leno or David Letterman (although she is four years older than Jimmy Fallon but three and a half years younger than Jimmy Kimmel), and,

(2) She would make history as only the second woman to ever host a network late-night talk/variety show on a regular basis and might (given the shake-up at NBC and the possibility that Letterman may retire in the next year or two) become the first woman to host a successful late-night talk/variety show.

 

[michael hagerty]

Define "(Jay Leno not being) that network's(Fox) kind of show".

It's about demographics.

In the 1990's, a Jay Leno talk/variety show on Fox would have made a lot of demographic sense, given that network's traditional reliance on younger demos.

But even though Leno is still number-one in the 18-49 demographic, he's not as dominant in it as he once was, and I suspect the average age of the "Tonight Show" viewer is now significantly older than that of most Fox prime-time programming.

Yes, his producers could book a lot of guests who would appeal to the 18-34 and 18-49 demographics, but would that be enough??

In fact, I wonder if the average age of viewers of sitcom reruns that most Fox affiliates run at 11 or 11:30 P.M. (ET/PT) is younger than that of "The Tonight Show".

Thus, I think Fox might pass on Leno, and if they do re-enter the late-night talk/variety wars, it would be with a younger host(ess) who might be able to host such a show (if his/her show becomes popular) for two decades.

I could actually see Fox make a run at Tina Fey because she would:

(1) Be much younger than Jay Leno or David Letterman (although she is four years older than Jimmy Fallon but three and a half years younger than Jimmy Kimmel), and,

(2) She would make history as only the second woman to ever host a network late-night talk/variety show on a regular basis and might (given the shake-up at NBC and the possibility that Letterman may retire in the next year or two) become the first woman to host a successful late-night talk/variety show.

I understand your points. But remember, degree of dominance in 18-49 isn't relevant here. If you're #1 or #2 (and maybe even #3), you're getting ad buys that are huge. 18-34 doesn't matter at 11 or 11:35 unless it holds all the way to 49. Jay does. When Jay lost the lead in the demo to Kimmel, it should have been difficult if not impossible to recover it. But he did...in two weeks.

Lorne Michaels reportedly talked to Tina about the Tonight Show and she declined, saying she would rather pursue projects that don't require a daily commitment.

And every other choice is like Conan...someone who arguably fits the demo and the vibe but doesn't have the rating track record. At best, they're throwing someone up against Arsenio.

They only lose on this deal if Jay's a complete disaster (and that's not likely).

 

[justpassingthough]

Shouldn't all the arguments about the affiliates not wanting to give up local news or syndicated fare be moot? If this story is accurate, it's the head of the affiliates who wants Leno, so he's presumably speaking for the affiliates, not just the O&Os. That part seems to be missing from this conversation, even though its been pointed out that its inconsequential what the affiliates want anyway seeing as their agreements lock them into carrying a late night program in pattern.

 

[michael hagerty]

Shouldn't all the arguments about the affiliates not wanting to give up local news or syndicated fare be moot? If this story is accurate, it's the head of the affiliates who wants Leno, so he's presumably speaking for the affiliates, not just the O&Os. That part seems to be missing from this conversation, even though its been pointed out that its inconsequential what the affiliates want anyway seeing as their agreements lock them into carrying a late night program in pattern.

Yes, but the head of the affiliates group isn't speaking for himself. He's speaking on behalf of the affiliates.

Having programmed television, I can tell you pretty much what's going through the FOX affiliate GMs heads right now: They're jazzed. It's a once-in-a-lifetime chance to launch latenight with a known quantity. Not just a name, but a name that's #1 doing this type of show right now. This ain't Conan, Chevy Chase or Joan Rivers.

Yeah, some 11PM newscasts go away. That's the trade off for Leno to have a head start on Letterman, Fallon and Kimmel and to start head-to-head against Arsenio. It's likely to change viewing patterns and make the 10PM news stronger, which means more revenue there.

No, Jay's not going to do 20 more years. But he's probably got 10 in him (he'll want to prove NBC real wrong and outlast Letterman before retiring on his own terms). And in that time, FOX can take advantage of ill will against NBC, what promises to be a less than brilliant succession to Letterman (the only guy he's ever allowed to sub for him was Regis), and the distinct possibility that putting Fallon and Kimmel up against each other will dilute the demos for both.

Frankly, the odds are very good that in 9 years, Leno will be the only host we know today still on the air. Kimmel will depend on whether ABC stands by him if Fallon splits the demo. There is no reason to believe NBC will stand by Fallon if it doesn't go well, and Letterman's not going to be doing his show on CBS at age 75. And all of the above probably make the room too crowded for Conan and Arsenio to continue long-term.

 

[ShawnHill1]

Yeah, some 11PM newscasts go away. That's the trade off for Leno to have a head start on Letterman, Fallon and Kimmel and to start head-to-head against Arsenio. It's likely to change viewing patterns and make the 10PM news stronger, which means more revenue there.

Also, you'll have situations in some cities like Cleveland, Indianapolis, San Diego, Hartford, Seattle, Sacramento, and a few other markets where you would have both Jay AND Arsenio airing together on the local Fox affiliate.

However, Arsenio is not that much younger than Leno or Letterman, right now at age 57. As even as a fan of his old show, I would be surprised if Arsenio goes another five years.

 

[BD Sullivan]

The way Fox News keeps trying to gin up some phony controversy about Leno being dumped because of criticism toward Obama makes me wonder if Rupert gave them the marching orders to make a Leno to Fox move a reality.

 

[cspotrun]

just my observation, Leno like Carson can be Funny without seeming Mean about it. which is why Leno will probably outlast Letterman. Letterman can be downright Cruel.