Adman4120 said:
Yes, it will be very interesting to see how Lite and MIX do against one another. While there are only two books in this market, there still is nothing signed for Eastlan to survey Utica/Rome. I believe they are doing Syracuse.
I don't want to nitpick, but I believe Eastlan IS doing Utica-Rome for Galaxy. Recent articles on several trade websites recently reported Eastlan had added Newburgh-Middletown as their third market in New York, following Syracuse and Utica-Rome. A
press release on Eastlan's website pretty much says the same thing.
Adman4120 said:
There is no doubt that ED knows how to get publicity for his stations even if it really isn't anything big. That is where the other groups fall asleep. When Galaxy got Utica OD headlines about WOUR going up and MIX going up, Regent should have already had a phone call in to tell the OD that they were still the leader for the 17th year in a row and went up even more. That would have showed that the Galaxy hype was nothing and the MIX increase had nothing to do with the fall ratings book.
A great point. Many times, a simple press release is all it takes to create a story, especially on a slow news day. I'm actually surprised the OD didn't include Regent's response -- they usually are better at presenting both sides. Perhaps under their new management, this story went to a rookie who just accepted the press release without question, and "forgot" to check in with the other stations in town. Or, maybe when Regent was contacted, they went on about how Eastlan and Arbitron are two entirely different ballgames... and it confused the reporter to the point where Regent's argument was simply left out. After all, Arbitron has said it's "revenge solution" against Ed in Syracuse is to simply leave Galaxy stations out of the book entirely -- so even the national agencies can't see his numbers. If they're doing the same in Utica-Rome, is there really any way for Regent (or ANY competitor for that matter) to dispute the numbers? How can you compare apples to oranges, when (a) you don't know how many apples (Arb points)
they have, and (b) you don't know how many oranges (Eastlan points)
you have?
Not saying either possibility even comes CLOSE to excusing the reporter from including the competitors, but many papers these days lack a "broadcasting-savvy" person who is knowledgeable enough to report on things like ratings, without getting fooled by the same number-twisting the sales reps try to use on their clients. Heck, there are even people
in the business who get confused when they look at the numbers.
Adman4120 said:
If Galaxy promotes as both of you pointed out, they have an excellent opportunity to erode the Lite audience. This market hasn't seen much in the way of competition for about 20-years. Maybe this will be the start and will make radio as a whole work harder and sound better in this area. But, if history repeats itself and MIX and WOUR just track from Syracuse or even Utica, will that still help them to succeed?
I think they key question here is: how long is Ed willing to stay in the battle? Look back into history. There was a time when KG104 was dominant, and Lite 98.7 was barely a blip on the radar. It took some time, but eventually Lite came out ahead and KG went belly-up. Any competitor has the chance to do that again -- it's a matter of how long they're willing to put up a fight. The first Mix had a chance, but Clear Channel failed to keep up a strong promotional front. I have it on good authority that insiders at Regent were pretty concerned when CC flipped Bob to Mix. Luckily for them, CC approached the launch as a sprint, rather than a distance run. Lots of oomph out of the gate, but when overnight success didn't happen, their efforts lessened considerably.
Mix could be successful IF Ed Levine accepts the fact that it could take a long time for Mix to chisel away at Lite. It will take more than a few books. It will likely take more than a few
years. If Ed expects big results quickly like Clear Channel did, he's going to be very disappointed. If he hires air talent and only gives them one year to beat Lite, those folks will be looking for new jobs in a year. Taking over a heritage station is something that requires a lot of time and money.
As Element9 mentioned, the only way Ed could score an instant coup would be to steal away Lite's entire weekday airstaff. It would be pretty expensive up-front, but it would payoff almost immediately. Despite any opinions about the personalities... just the maneuver itself would virtually cripple Lite.
Check their music list on R&R's website -- the morning guy is the MD, and the afternoon guy is the PD. Losing those two at the same time would practically cripple the station, leaving the OM or a consultant to generate music logs and handle day-to-day programming. Not to mention, the hassle of conducting searches for all three positions -- all the while, their established former airstaff is already working across town. The move would definitely generate enough press to get people to notice and change the dial.
The only downside: the "immediate" payoff wouldn't be so immediate. Because U-R is a two-book market, there are no Arbitrends to immediately reflect the impact (and again, Ed's not using Arbitron). If Ed pulled such a move right before the spring book started in April, the impact wouldn't be known until July or early August. It would almost definitely work out well in the end, but I don't know if Ed has the resources to make the initial investment of hiring three jocks (at salaries higher than whatever Lite's paying) and pay those salaries for however long it takes before fresh ratings numbers allow Ed to begin charging higher rates and becoming profitable. Also, you're dealing with diaries... it's anyone's guess how many listeners would write down Lite out of habit, giving Lite credit that should have been given to Mix. (This is where a lot would ride on Arbitron properly crediting any mentions of air talent by name, and we all know Arbitron's not looking to do Galaxy any favors these days.)
None of this would probably ever happen, but it would sure be neat to sit back and watch how things unfold if it did.