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LA Radio reports some possible format changes

Since very few markets, and certainly the top 30-40, have more than one top 40 station, would going after KIIS (and their hefty billings and solid cume) be doable in an industry obssessed with cost-cutting?

If nobody wanted to really take on KIIS in the eighties (I never felt that CBS put the $$$$ into KKHR that was necessary to get the job done) when KIIS's ratings were much higher (10.0 at one point, and over a 7.0 share until 1988 or 1989), I don't see any reason why Bonneville or anyone else would try doing that these days.
 
Marv-L.A. said:
Since very few markets, and certainly the top 30-40, have more than one top 40 station, would going after KIIS (and their hefty billings and solid cume) be doable in an industry obssessed with cost-cutting?

If nobody wanted to really take on KIIS in the eighties (I never felt that CBS put the $$$$ into KKHR that was necessary to get the job done) when KIIS's ratings were much higher (10.0 at one point, and over a 7.0 share until 1988 or 1989), I don't see any reason why Bonneville or anyone else would try doing that these days.

KIIS is going to be around a 6 in PPM and No. 1 or No. 2 25-54.
 
I can't tell whether this is a bias due to self-selection on this board, but it appears from the discussion that no non-english station is going to change formats :)
 
K6JHU said:
I can't tell whether this is a bias due to self-selection on this board, but it appears from the discussion that no non-english station is going to change formats :)

The only ones that may be vulnerable to change are KSSE and, maybe, KXOL.
 
DavidEduardo said:
SandyG said:
What about the fact that these ppm #'s are WAY different if you take out listeners that listen for less than an hour a week?

Actually, the numbers change little. 50% of the cume represents 92% of the quarter hours of the average station, so the light occasional listening means nearly nothing.

In the diary method, most people listed 4 or 5 stations,

No, they did not. The average was about 2.5 stations in the average diary.

but with incidental listening (grocery store, mall, doctors office) PPM panelists are registering like 12-15 stations.

No, they are registering 5 to 6 stations. And some of this is real, truly valid listening that did not get into the diary. Examples would be the person who checks a news station for a few minutes before leaving for work to check the traffic... listening that did not usually get remembered fro filling in the diary. Or a station put on at work, but by someone else... and which was listend to all day.

Most officices and malls and such use background music services, not radio stations, due to the licensing issues.

Take away the one hour or less and the top stations are losing as much as 65% of cume...what about that??? How many times have you walked into a store and heard KLSX on the air? Looks like some stations did a good job in the PPM by becoming background music by eliminating jocks...and results for their advertisers as well!

Your math is way off.

I could watch David school people all day
 
DavidEduardo said:
hotpatrick2004 said:
I guarantee you klsx and the wave will not be going anywhere.

Where stations like KIIS doubled their cume, KLSX went down. It's the only full signal FM that did not increase its cume. And the shared declined 40%, so overall here we have a station that is tied with moving in the PPM.

KTWV loses 7 market rank positions in PPM, loses sshare, and has limited cume growth in 25-54.

KLSX is pretty much a definite, as is KMVN. KTWV is a maybe.

If KLSX does change formats, when will it change, what will it change to, and what will happen the Adam Carolla Show?
 
zombywoof said:
If KLSX does change formats, when will it change, what will it change to, and what will happen the Adam Carolla Show?

My guess is that the change will come soon after Roy puts up his nameplate on the door.

What we have is a set of two months of PPM data, the second pretty much confirming the first. There has been no change in ratings methodology since the 60's, and in the new system, a few stations look very, very good. The ones that are no longer viable will go after them, and level the market over the next year or so.

The overperformes had all been leveled in the diary based survey. They will again be leveled under the PPM system. KIIS, Jack, KROQ are particularly vulnerable.
 
So that means shortly after Labor Day, then? I'm an Adam Carolla fan. He's 8 months into a two year contract. What's going to happen to the Adam Carolla Show? Any guesses?
 
zombywoof said:
So that means shortly after Labor Day, then? I'm an Adam Carolla fan. He's 8 months into a two year contract. What's going to happen to the Adam Carolla Show? Any guesses?

The show is now 17th in the core 18-49 demo. Considering that it is likely quite costly, I'd guess they might go for a buyout unless there is a performance clause. I wasn't there when they singned, am not a lawyer, so my opinion here is close to worthless.
 
DavidEduardo said:
zombywoof said:
So that means shortly after Labor Day, then? I'm an Adam Carolla fan. He's 8 months into a two year contract. What's going to happen to the Adam Carolla Show? Any guesses?

The show is now 17th in the core 18-49 demo. Considering that it is likely quite costly, I'd guess they might go for a buyout unless there is a performance clause. I wasn't there when they singned, am not a lawyer, so my opinion here is close to worthless.

Wow, since Carolla has said many times that the best entertainment gig ever is to be paid to not work, seems like he would go for a buyout.
 
DavidEduardo.....

Why are you so smart? How is it that you know so much?

Personally, I feel that one thing you are wrong about is the KLSX 97.1 flip. I spoke to someone on the inside, and I would be willing to bet that there is NO WAY they flip...do you have any idea how much they bill? Do you know how much their weekend brokered shows bring in?

Carolla is on in like 14 markets and so is Leykis (I am sure you will tell me the exact # they are on since you do know everything) and for them to flip and lose those two cash cows makes no sense. The ratings haven't been great on 97.1 since Stern left and they still sell sell sell. Frosty, Heidi and Frank, while not my cup of tea, do have good ratings and HUGE turnouts at their events (as does Leykis) and Bonaduce is up in the ratings for his hour (which I wouldn't be surprised to see expanded in the near future!)

Saying that Carolla is 17th in the core 18-49 demo is way off...that is not his core demo...MEN 25-54 is. Look at Adam's numbers in Orange County. Take out the spanish speaking stations and public radio stations that are showing up in PPM and then adjust his ranking. I don't have access to the numbers, but I am willing to bet that in several demos, KLSX is the #1 talk station in LA. (Beating KFI and KABC)

Ratings are not the only thing that determines if a station stays on the air...how else do you explain why there are so many stations surviving in this market? If ratings were the only factor, we would have like 15 stations able to sell advertising. Even Movin is able to claim that Rick Dee's has listeners, if they tweak the numbers enough! (He is #2 among stay at home hispanic females aged 25-34 with less than two children and that drive a Dodge)

Who are you David Eduardo...Could you actually be a working PD or GM? How do you have the time to post so much....hmmmmmmm.

Let the schooling begin!
 
LARadioNUT said:
Personally, I feel that one thing you are wrong about is the KLSX 97.1 flip. I spoke to someone on the inside, and I would be willing to bet that there is NO WAY they flip...do you have any idea how much they bill? Do you know how much their weekend brokered shows bring in?

I know that in PPM the entire station is only exceeded by Sound and Movin in the utter failure to generate numbers. KLSX is a station that looked decent in the diary, but is 26th in 18-49 now. In revenue, they are off 40% over the last two years and even more this year before the PPM becomes currency.

But the main reason 97.1 will select CHR would be the recent naming of Roy Laughlin as GM. The station has to change due to the huge billing losses, but it's going to be Roy who will move 97.1 to CHR.

Carolla is on in like 14 markets and so is Leykis (I am sure you will tell me the exact # they are on since you do know everything) and for them to flip and lose those two cash cows makes no sense.

They can still syndicate them even if they are not on in LA. But for syndication, clearances in the hundreds of staitons is the sign of success, not 14 stations.

Saying that Carolla is 17th in the core 18-49 demo is way off...that is not his core demo...MEN 25-54 is.

And he is 13th there.

Look at Adam's numbers in Orange County.

Who breaks that out? Nobody does.... it's a tiny part of the LA metro. In other words, an excused for bad numbers in the full market.

Take out the spanish speaking stations and public radio stations that are showing up in PPM and then adjust his ranking.

The Spanish language stations are very much part of this market, where Hispanics are the largest single group in the MSA. What you are saying is really quite on the border of being racist.

I don't have access to the numbers, but I am willing to bet that in several demos, KLSX is the #1 talk station in LA. (Beating KFI and KABC)

Yeah, you can find some demo where nearly every significant station looks good. KLSX beats KFI in 18-34 men. The only issue is that none of us see 18-34 buys on persons, me or wome any too often.

[/quote]Ratings are not the only thing that determines if a station stays on the air...how else do you explain why there are so many stations surviving in this market? If ratings were the only factor, we would have like 15 stations able to sell advertising.[/quote]

That's not true. In LA, an 18-49 or 25-45 (the move is to 18-49 as the sales demo of significance) a commercial point is worth around $10,000,000. So with a 0.8 you can sell about $8 million....

The low, low rated stations are brokered or some kind of non-Hispanic ethnic targeted, and sell to a subset and do well. But anything with a rating of about 1.0 or above can do well and be profitable. There are, even today, nearly $1 billion dollars in revenue in the LA market.

Who are you David Eduardo...Could you actually be a working PD or GM? How do you have the time to post so much....hmmmmmmm.

I'm soemeone who started as a radio groupie 49 1/2 years ago and still am. I enjoy the discourse of the boards, and the challenge of answering posts nearly always makes me research areas I would not normally study, so it has real monetary as well as professional value.
 
Kabrich said:
DavidEduardo said:
Movin will flip to be more like KIIS since dees has the sweet deal he has.

A sale seems as likely or more likely. It might help them take the company private, too.
No, they will be forced to sell a property in BOTH LA AND NY just to keep the their loan covenants in place now and simply survive as a public company. When PPM becomes currency in NY, LA and Chicago, all indications are that Emmis in a world of trouble, atleast the way that I see it (and the loan covenant issue has also come up on a recent Emmis Investors call).

They cannot get the money to even begin to think about going private now. They will need to sale those properties just to maintain what they have left.

As an interested observer from the New York City area - there has been much speculation about what Emmis will eventually do with its frequency @ 101.9-FM-WRXP (NY's Rock Experience - AAA - similar to 100.3 FM The Sound - L.A.). It flipped from Smooth Jazz/New AC in early February, 2008 with the pre-flip overall ratings ranging from about 2.5 to 3.2 over the past few years; they'd been slipping in the 25-54 demo from about 9th-10th to 18th-20th. Billing was not commensurate with the ratings results, thus the flip - hoping to wedge a rock format between an unstable active rocker with Opie & Anthony in mornings (92.3-FM-WXRK "K-Rock"-CBS) & a well established classic rocker (104.3-FM-WAXQ "Q104"-Clear Channel). Now, an utter disaster since: overall ratings have hovered in the 0.8 to 1.0 range (just like Emmis' property in L.A.: Movin' 93.9). I understand they're hoping that the PPM's replacing the diaries in the Jul/Aug/Sep 2008 book will boost the ratings; preliminary results haven't shown this to be true-yet. I'm sure they'll give the format a chance into early 2009, but if no growth, then what? Find new formats? Would Emmis be willing (or forced) to sell one or both properties? Hmmm...prime real estate in the top 2 markets...what could they fetch? Clear Channel & CBS are sellers, albeit in smaller markets so far. Interesting times...strange days indeed.
 
I don't know if fan's comments were racist, but when KLSX sells Leykis in particular as being dominant among English-dominant Hispanic men, claiming he's second only to Jack, I'd say breaking off Spanish stations from KLSX' numbers doesn't make much sense. If he loses LA, it's over for Leykis. He doesn't even have 14 markets.
 
pjc1961 said:
I understand they're hoping that the PPM's replacing the diaries in the Jul/Aug/Sep 2008 book will boost the ratings; preliminary results haven't shown this to be true-yet.

In PPM, there is no July-August-September book.

All PPM "books" are 28 days in length, 13 per year, with no rolling averages or connectin between the one before or the one after.

We have already received the July book, which is labeled "pre-Currency" and will get another pre-Currency book in September. In September, we get the August book, and one every 4 weeks after that... plus weeklies as well.
 
Hey david my favorite station is indie1031 can you tell me why they are still around what keeps entravision from flipping them? I hope it remains this way for decades to come.
 
hotpatrick2004 said:
Hey david my favorite station is indie1031 can you tell me why they are still around what keeps entravision from flipping them? I hope it remains this way for decades to come.

The problem is that in the PPM they are even lower than in the diary, so they certainly are vulnerable. On the other hand, the station has never billed better, mostly local business or regional with a strong West Side OC presence, so it may just be one of the exceptions to the rule.
 
DavidEduardo said:
pjc1961 said:
I understand they're hoping that the PPM's replacing the diaries in the Jul/Aug/Sep 2008 book will boost the ratings; preliminary results haven't shown this to be true-yet.

In PPM, there is no July-August-September book.

All PPM "books" are 28 days in length, 13 per year, with no rolling averages or connectin between the one before or the one after.

We have already received the July book, which is labeled "pre-Currency" and will get another pre-Currency book in September. In September, we get the August book, and one every 4 weeks after that... plus weeklies as well.

Thanks for the clarification, David. Hey, gives us something to look forward to on a frequent basis. There's always some hesitation with any change in ratings methodology; although not as controversial since it was seen as a big improvement, remember Billboard's change to Soundscan & BDS in the early 1990's? As long as meter placement is perceived to be fair & balanced (sorry, couldn't resist the FOX reference!), which is a "big if" for now-but should be ironed out over time, the data will be more accurate & now, more instantaneously available.
 
I totally agree with you David. As soon as I heard the news last week regarding Roy moving to CBS Radio-LA, 97.1 going CHR was the first thing that came to mind. And with the news that Roy will be coming on board right after Labor Day makes me also think that a station flip to CHR would be perfect over a holiday weekend!

I mentioned in another thread that CBS should somewhat mimic their B96 property in Chicago, with maybe a little more dance lean. More specifically a hybrid of B96 and B96 HD2. However, you would probably know more than me on how B96 performs, and if a B96 CHR would work in LA with PPM. Any thoughts?
 
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