If NBC-TV does give back the 10-11 P.M. (Eastern /Pacific) hour to local stations and reclaims the 11-11:30 P.M. (Eastern/Pacific) half-hour to move up their late night programming, I think ABC and CBS affiliates will likewise demand that their respective networks follow suit.
Here's why I think this could happen:
Except in the smallest markets, expanding late evening local newscasts to an hour will only result in a minimal increase in costs and perhaps can be done without adding any staff. And with an hour instead of a half-hour, local stations would have more late evening local news commercial spots available to sell. Finally, with late local news being an hour earlier, more people would be awake to watch, and hence, more money could be charged per spot.
For local stations, it's pure profit.
And for NBC (or ABC or CBS if they follow suit), with fewer prime time commercial spots, they could charge more per spot. Combine that with vastly reduced prime time program expenditures, it means more money per spot.
If NBC (or ABC and CBS for that matter) likewise have their local stations run late news at 10 and start late-night network programs at 11, affiliates of the traditional "big three" that heretofore have produced local 10 P.M. newscasts on Fox, CW, or My Network TV could move those newscasts to 11. And some Fox, CW or My Network TV affiliates that produce their own local 10 P.M. newscasts could move them to 11 if they're worried about the new competition.
The soon-to-start 2022/23 prime time TV season may be the last when any broadcast network programs the 10-11 P.M. (Eastern/Pacific) hour, apart from some occasional sports or specials.
Like the old saying goes, "It's All About The Benjamins".
