Nicole Sandler

[ronkaram]

By accident Friday afternoon, I tuned into the Thom Hartmon show on KTLK and Nicole was filling in for him. She sounds pretty good as a talk show host. Is this something new for her or is it that I just have missed hearing her.

 

[davideduardo]

By accident Friday afternoon, I tuned into the Thom Hartmon show on KTLK and Nicole was filling in for him. She sounds pretty good as a talk show host. Is this something new for her or is it that I just have missed hearing her.

Not new. She had been doing mornings on Air America affiliate WINZ in Miami where she was let go a month or so ago.

 

[talkjim]

Yes, she did a fine job indeed for Thom on Air America. I would also note that Nicole was budget-cutted at WINZ/Miami, in spite of the fact that her show was upwardly mobile in the ratings--in the spring ARB, she beat sister conservative talker WIOD (traditionally the dominant English-language AM in Miami) in the core talk demo (men 25-54) and was nipping at the heels of WIOD in 25-54, adults.

 

[davideduardo]

Yes, she did a fine job indeed for Thom on Air America. I would also note that Nicole was budget-cutted at WINZ/Miami, in spite of the fact that her show was upwardly mobile in the ratings--in the spring ARB, she beat sister conservative talker WIOD (traditionally the dominant English-language AM in Miami) in the core talk demo (men 25-54) and was nipping at the heels of WIOD in 25-54, adults.

Yes, if I recall, one was 23rd and the other was 24th.

The core talk demo is actually 45+ for AM talkers. Most have a hell of a time getting good 25-54 numbers which is why the trend is to move the format to FM where 25-54 will really listen.

 

[djmimi]

Nicole is a very smart girl and I'm glad to see she has transitioned so well into talk. I'm hoping to see her get more airtime with Air America.

 

[talkjim]

As I think even you are aware, David Eduardo, Miami is a highly competitive market--especially for AM stations--perhaps the most competitive in the nation, for a variety of reasons. But we can always leave it to you to find a glimmer of negativity in the positive results that are achieved by talented and hard-working broadcasters. You are a sad individual.

 

[davideduardo]

As I think even you are aware, David Eduardo, Miami is a highly competitive market--especially for AM stations--perhaps the most competitive in the nation, for a variety of reasons. But we can always leave it to you to find a glimmer of negativity in the positive results that are achieved by talented and hard-working broadcasters. You are a sad individual.

There was nothing postitive about the results for either WIOD or for WINZ.

As to familiarity, I have been both a programmer and a general manager in Miami and am quite aware of the competitive environment there.

I certainly would not call the market "the most competitive in the nation" as the market is relatively under-radioed as it has essentially no FM move ins and on AM there are perhaps only two stations that have viable day and night signals over the whole market.

 

[talkjim]

"There was nothing postitive about the results for either WIOD or for WINZ."

I'll say it one more time, David--and if you still don't get it--I'll just assume you are in a terminal state of reality-denial. Nicole made gains in the morning at WINZ in key demos. That, by any definition but yours, is a positive.

Why don't you just be happy for her, just as I'm sure you would want your successes acknowledged?

Oh and by the way, learn to spell the word positive. And learn to experience the word as well. You'll be happier, healthier and you might even live longer.

 

[davideduardo]

"There was nothing postitive about the results for either WIOD or for WINZ."

I'll say it one more time, David--and if you still don't get it--I'll just assume you are in a terminal state of reality-denial. Nicole made gains in the morning at WINZ in key demos. That, by any definition but yours, is a positive.

What in the world is positive about a 1.3 in 25-54? That's 24th in the market in that demo, and I don't know of anyone who would be happy or positive about being 24th, particularly when the leader in the demo had an 8.1 in the Spring book.

In any case, as the actual months show, March was much better than any of the Spring months, so I find the "gain" statement to be an exaggeration. In any case, if you do the margin of error math, a 1.3 is anywhere from about a 0.9 to a 1.7.

Why don't you just be happy for her, just as I'm sure you would want your successes acknowledged?

I can't conceive, as I said, of anyone being happy with either a 1.3 or a 24th ranking.

Oh and by the way, learn to spell the word positive.

I'm waaaaay over appolgizing for being dyslexic and the little issues it causes. In fact, you should appologize.

And learn to experience the word as well. You'll be happier, healthier and you might even live longer.

I am happy when stations I am involved with are in the top tiers in audience and are billing well. I don't need an Anthony Robbins clone to try to make me want to be 24th.

 

[talkjim]

"What in the world is positive about a 1.3 in 25-54?"

It was a gain from the previous book...and any gain, by definition, is a positive--some grudge you have prevents you from admitting the obvious. Especially for an English langugage AM station, in a highly competitive and overradioed market, where many don't speak English. You can talk around it all you want David, and you can attempt to minimize it, but a gain is positive. I'd hate to hear what you would say if Nicole had lost audience.

And yes, David, I do apologize for my spelling critique if you are in fact dyslexic. But you know what? Your negativity invites such remarks. I again suggest that you put yourself in the shoes of some hard-working folks whose efforts you routinely use this board to denigrate.

 

[davideduardo]

"What in the world is positive about a 1.3 in 25-54?"

It was a gain from the previous book...and any gain, by definition, is a positive--some grudge you have prevents you from admitting the obvious.

There is no indication of gain there, and every indication that the station was wobbling within a range. The fact that the last three books for WINZ have been a 1.1 and a 1.3 and a 1.1 show that what we have is the normal range for a station in that low share neighborhood.

Within the 9 months, individual months were as low as a 0.4 and as high as a 2.1!

You are not grasping the fact that a 0.8 or a 1.1 or a 1.4 or a 0.9 or a 1.2 are statistically the same number because they all fall well within the margin of error for the diary based survey and the sample size in Miami.

Especially for an English langugage AM station,

See how easily a typo creeps in?

Moving right along, keep in mind that KFI is top 5 in LA, and LA is about 42% Hispanic to Miami's 50%... the fact that there are many Hispanics does not mean all of them listen to Spanish language radio... in most markets, about half the Hispanic listening is to English language stations... in some, even more.

The issue with the Miami English talk station is not ethnicity, but a lack of compelling programming that is relevant to Miami.

in a highly competitive and overradioed market,

I looked at a couple of similarly sized markets (from Atlanta to Seattle in size) and Miami has a comparable number of "viable" station, give or take one, to all the others. Viable means a good enough signal on AM or FM to be able to cover all or enough of the market to be fully competitive. Miami is neither more nor less competitive and it is no more over-radioed than any other market of its size (excluding Puerto Rico which has 125 stations for the same population as Miami).

That dog don't hunt.

where many don't speak English.

LA. Houston. Chicago. San Francisco. New York. Dallas. San Diego. All have very strong AM talk stations, and each market has lots of Hispanics as well as members of ethnic and immigrant groups that traditionally don't use "non-Hispanic white" talk stations.

You can talk around it all you want David, and you can attempt to minimize it, but a gain is positive. I'd hate to hear what you would say if Nicole had lost audience.

Since the wobbling was all in the statistical range of the margin of error of the survey, there were neither gains nor losses, as is apparent from the results of the Summer book. In any case, I am so used to wobbles of a half point or so among the lowest quintile of stations that meet the MRS that the whole thing is rather unremarkable.

You jammed me previously when I posted that, at the level of WINZ, changes of a few tenths were well within the margin of error and that, statistically there was a tie with WIOD. You claimed that WINZ won, based on a separation of 0.1 which is waaaaaaaaaaay inside the margin of error. I'm guessing that you have never read the Purple Book and that your opinions lack a grounding in knowledge of research and statistics.

And yes, David, I do apologize for my spelling critique if you are in fact dyslexic. But you know what? Your negativity invites such remarks.

Transferring blame to me for your lack of understanding of the range which every Arbitron number represents is not going to work. When you, or any other poster, makes absurd and unsustainable ratings claims based on limited understanding of, or limited access to, the facts, I am going to correcct the misinformation.

I again suggest that you put yourself in the shoes of some hard-working folks whose efforts you routinely use this board to denigrate.

When the facts are wrong, no amount of spin will change the basic informational disconnect. You are applying the worst of the current presidential campaign to radio and I am calling you on it.

 

[talkjim]

David,

You're not the only one here who has ever programmed a radio station, and I concede nothing. I understand very well "margin of error." But a rating is a rating. And 2 is a greater number than 1. Every day and in every book in this nation, radio stations win and lose within the margin of error. Who makes the top five or top ten in any given demo is often decided within the margin of error. The upcoming presidential election may be decided within the margin of error but there will still be a winner.

I'm glad to see that we are making progress. You started by claiming I was in error, and now we're talking about "margin of error". I never claimed that WINZ was number one or even top 10--I made two points that still stand in spite of all of your analysis.

1) Nicole, in a difficult market by any reasonable standard, with no outside promotion, left the show better than she found it, with gains in men, 25-54, ARB, AQH, and 25-54, adults. That's one reason why she was the national fill-in host for the Thom Hartmann show this past Friday--a show by the way that tops Limbaugh in some markets--Seattle and San Francisco to name two.

2)-Nicole topped WIOD--usually the dominant English language talk station--in men 25-54 (spring ARB) and was close 25-54 adults.

That's all I ever claimed and I claim it still.

 

[davideduardo]

I understand very well "margin of error." But a rating is a rating. And 2 is a greater number than 1.

But a 1.3 is the same number as a 1.4... as are 0.9 and 1.5 and all the other numbers in the middle.

Every day and in every book in this nation, radio stations win and lose within the margin of error. Who makes the top five or top ten in any given demo is often decided within the margin of error.

That's why agencies use multibook averages, because they know the numbers need to be flattened by this process.

The upcoming presidential election may be decided within the margin of error but there will still be a winner.

Politics, like horse races and the World Series, grants only one top spot, one winner. Radio is based on getting ratings and setting rates based on the Cost Per Point, so a station that has a third less than the #1 station in a demo and prices proportionally can sell as successfully as the top station.

However, outside a certain range, stations just don't get bought... such as below #15 or so in Miami.

I'm glad to see that we are making progress. You started by claiming I was in error, and now we're talking about "margin of error".

Other way 'round. You are in error because you are not taking into account the margin of error. WINZ was essentially flat for Winter, Spring and Summer and well inside the margin of error for lower range numbers.

1) Nicole, in a difficult market by any reasonable standard,

There you go again. Miami is no more difficult than other markets in that population range.

2)-Nicole topped WIOD--usually the dominant English language talk station--in men 25-54 (spring ARB) and was close 25-54 adults.

And WIOD was on the low side of its wobbles, and was before and is again now about a 1.8 station. The real issue is, however, that all low share stations are subject to a higher percentage of deviation in their wobbles... as this thread evidences.

 

[talkjim]

"But a 1.3 is the same number as a 1.4... as are 0.9 and 1.5 and all the other numbers in the middle. "

Now you are getting silly, David. Just as 4 is a larger number than 3...1.4 is a greater number than 1.3. Only in your world are they the same. And none of your gibberish disguised as insightful analysis will change that mathematical fact.

"Politics, like horse races and the World Series, grants only one top spot, one winner. Radio is based on getting ratings and setting rates based on the Cost Per Point, so a station that has a third less than the #1 station in a demo and prices proportionally can sell as successfully as the top station. "

Again, only in your world. I say again what everyone knows to be true (and if anyone doesn't know it, feel free to chime in)--radio stations, just like all other competitive entities, win and lose every day within the margin of error. Yet ARB and other ratings firms still declare winners.

 

[davideduardo]

"But a 1.3 is the same number as a 1.4... as are 0.9 and 1.5 and all the other numbers in the middle. "

Now you are getting silly, David. Just as 4 is a larger number than 3...1.4 is a greater number than 1.3. Only in your world are they the same. And none of your gibberish disguised as insightful analysis will change that mathematical fact.

The difference you are not following is that a poll produces results that are within a certain range, and that range is basically the margin of error. So if a poll with a margin of error of 3% says "48%" it really means that the median number of the range is 48, but that it could mean also any of the other integers within the range.

So when you see a station with a 1 share, know that what you are seing is the center of a range, maybe a 0.5 to a 1.5.

Again, this is why agencies buy based on multi-book averages. They know about the margin of error, and want to look at more data.

"Politics, like horse races and the World Series, grants only one top spot, one winner. Radio is based on getting ratings and setting rates based on the Cost Per Point, so a station that has a third less than the #1 station in a demo and prices proportionally can sell as successfully as the top station. "

Again, only in your world. I say again what everyone knows to be true (and if anyone doesn't know it, feel free to chime in)--radio stations, just like all other competitive entities, win and lose every day within the margin of error. Yet ARB and other ratings firms still declare winners.

There is a reason why Arbitron calls its reports "Radio Audience Estimates."

 

[BeachBum]

Wow, what a snarky, petty series of posts this has become. Thanks, David Eduardo.

You don't have to set people straight all the time.

 

[davideduardo]

Wow, what a snarky, petty series of posts this has become. Thanks, David Eduardo.

You don't have to set people straight all the time.

Quite right. Let's adopt mediocrity and fuzzy thinking as our new standard.

 

[djmimi]

Aw come on...it's more fun with all the kvetching!! Gotta love a good argument, makes it way more fun. If we all agreed, we'd all get bored really fast.

 

[SuperRadioFan]

Quite right. Let's adopt mediocrity and fuzzy thinking as our new standard.

I'm afraid that the radio airwaves in LA already have the former standard because of the latter.

 

[talkjim]

Here's a bit of breaking news that I'm sure will break the heart of David...but I post it anyway for the edification of others. Have a nice day.

Beginning tomorrow (Tuesday, Oct. 21) and running through November 5, Nicole Sandler will appear on South Florida's NewsTalk 850 WFTL as a special election contributor!

This election is certainly the most important in our lifetime. Nicole Sandler has been tapped as a contributor to the WFTL Morning Show for the rest of election season, to join host Russ Morley and the WFTL News Team, where they'll welcome guests, break down speeches and distill the political mood swings that will impact our economy, the elections, and South Florida voters.