Rock in New York City

[atlantaboy]

Power ratio, by definition, is a gross revenue figure. It's not intended to measure profitability

Exactly - I can't believe it's taken 27 pages to get you to post this

There is no data indicating that Alternative is not a profitable format - conversely, there is more data to indicate that it is (i. e. Clear Channel financial decisions, commercial success of Radio 105.7, reputation of Radio 104.5, Arbitron PPM demo numbers, recent station flips to Alternative, growth reported by financial experts, etc.)

 

[davideduardo]

I know - I'm not indicating that you could have found more recent data - I'm indicating that the billing data you are using is, in fact, 6 months out of date with current trends in the Alternative format

I'm not implying that you could have found more recent information

But, obviously, if financial analysts report a large increase in Alternative format shares over the past 2 books, data you have from 2012, especially since it includes early in 2012, would be inconsistent and out of date

You cannot use generalized format data from January 2012 to make decisions about the prospect or success of an entire format in June 2013, whether or not more recent information is available - it is completely inaccurate

No, it is not inaccurate. Billing does not reflect short-term changes in audience, whether up or down.

In fact, billings on a station that has declined badly in ratings may hold solid for a year or more. And stations that have significant increases may take up to a year to realize the billing potential of the gains.

Agencies start planning most buys many months in advance... sometimes four to six months. Buys are not a spur of the moment thing, but part of an overall marketing plan. So the numbers used can often be the preceding six to 12 month average rating for a period that ended two, three, four months before the buy is placed.

The changes in the last 3 or 4 months have close to zero effect on business in June. And will have little effect on business in calendar 2013 because most of the year will be gone before the numbers start to influence historical rolling averages used by agencies.

Local direct accounts are not ratings driven, so ups and downs are not particularly significant.

Arbitron PPM numbers are current, reflect the popularity of formats in June 2013, reflect current format trends, and the potential for stations to generate profit - if a station has poor sales methodology, that problem can easily be corrected...

Not true at all. The most recent month / book data will, if the trend is sustained, affect the very tail end of 2013 and calendar 2014 billing, assuming that there is a good sales effort, proper CPP pricing and a desire to buy 18-34 men in formats other than sports... a lot of "ifs".

...especially if it's a station owned by Clear Channel, which has top-of-the-line, experienced sales people working for them at 30+ Alternative stations nationwide

That's an attempt at humor, right?

 

[davideduardo]

Power ratio, by definition, is a gross revenue figure. It's not intended to measure profitability

Exactly - I can't believe it's taken 27 pages to get you to post this

I never said it was any different: power ratio is a metric to show the conversion of ratings to revenue.

 

[atlantaboy]

Alright, I actually think this conversation is getting much too specific (and we're both rehashing the same info over and over) - I don't agree that billing measures profit, and you pretty much admitted that when you posted that power ratios do not measure profit (and you've been using power ratios as your rationale against the Alternative format in NYC through the entire first half of this thread)

I feel like you have a lot of posts about advertisers basing their ad sales off either power ratios or straight billing numbers, apparently from BIA/Kelsey, but I don't see any evidence that that's true - the entire purpose of Arbitron PPM demo breakdowns is to provide an unbiased resource to advertisers who want to target a particular demo - the numbers aren't estimates (like BIA/Kelsey), and they give an unbiased view of the audience of each station

Power ratios may be the result of advertisers' decisions, but I don't see any evidence that they are the cause of the decisions, and the same is true for billing rankings

As far as you feeling like you are able to make better financial decisions about a format you are unfamiliar with than Clear Channel is, who are clearly experts in the field, sorry but that's really arrogant - if you take the Clear Channel Alternative stations in particular, BTW, and look at their shares/demo rankings, they are clearly, and definitively, higher than non-Clear Channel Alternative stations - and calling their financial people "a joke" is, sorry, both disrespecful and ignorant - you know as well as I do that CC's debt is due to ITunes and similar services, and the proportional decline in radio listenership as a result -CBS would be in the same situation if they weren't a billion dollar TV/media network

But putting all these stats aside, look at the Top 10-20 markets - nearly every market that has a single Alternative station, and no AAA or other Alt competing with it, has solid ratings, both 12+ and in demo breakdowns - most large market Alternative stations with low ratings, maybe with the exception of Dallas, are competing with second Alternative stations or AAAs, which at this point, in 2013, share a lot of the same currents and recurrents

In nearly every major market, there is a significant demand for Alternative music, so to assume that this demand doesn't exist in NYC, or that a single Alternative station wouldn't be financially succesful, is, sorry, absolutely insane

 

[davideduardo]

I don't agree that billing measures profit,

Billing = gross income
Proft = net income

I feel like you have a lot of posts about advertisers basing their ad sales off either power ratios or straight billing numbers,

Advertisers don't sell advertising. They buy it.

Advertisers buy advertising based on the cost to deliver ratings points.

the entire purpose of Arbitron PPM demo breakdowns is to provide an unbiased resource to advertisers who want to target a particular demo - the numbers aren't estimates

Arbitron does not do a census. Therefore, they use a statistical sample and the ratings are pure estimates. In fact, the cover of the old printed report said, "Audience estimates".

Power ratios may be the result of advertisers' decisions, but I don't see any evidence that they are the cause of the decisions, and the same is true for billing rankings

Nobody said they were. Cause and effect. Please learn the terms.

As far as you feeling like you are able to make better financial decisions about a format you are unfamiliar with

I am familiar with the fact that it is likely the most unpredictable format for new launches. Therefore, the riskiest.

[/quote]And calling their financial people "a joke" is, sorry, both disrespecful and ignorant[/quote]

I said their financial folks never went to All Access. There is no reason for them to.

And as to sales department turnover, I think the statistics point to the fact that Clear does not win in the category of the most experienced seasoned sellers.

- you know as well as I do that CC's debt is due to ITunes and similar services,

Huh? That is about the stupidest thing I have seen posted.

Clear's debt is due to buying lots of stations in a seller's market after deregulation in 1996, almost all of which was done with debt. After a recession, with a 30% decline in industry billings, they don't have the revenues or profits to pay down the debt, and have been kicking the can down the road.

and the proportional decline in radio listenership as a result -CBS would be in the same situation if they weren't a billion dollar TV/media network

Wrong. CBS did not go on such a big buying binge, and did more equity deals vs. debt deals. Their balance sheet, including radio, was always much cleaner.

In nearly every major market, there is a significant demand for Alternative music, so to assume that this demand doesn't exist in NYC, or that a single Alternative station wouldn't be financially succesful, is, sorry, absolutely insane

Again, the point is that nobody in today's economy is going to give up cash flow and lose money for a year or so on something with no guarantee of doing any better.

 

[mrbrightside]

I'll reply with this, naysayers are everywhere. People on this board said New York would never have a country station again, and look, NASH on 94.7. When Y100 in Philly went off the air in 2005, people on the Philly board said Philly would "never have a sweater wearing college alternative station" again, and we got Radio 104.5 (NUMBER ONE in A18-49) two years later. I love the alternative format; rock music will make its way back to New York someday; hopefully not in 17 years, the amount of time it took for Country to return!

 

[Barry]

With Cumulus expressing interest in a national rock brand (perhaps similar in concept to the Nash country group), it would not surprise me if New York does eventually get a rock station that plays more recent stuff than Q104.
But what I am not understanding from this very lengthy thread is why it is assumed that it would be focused on alternative rock. Alternative is just one of several rock formats that are popular around the country.
AAA stations tend to be around for many years. So perhaps they are benefiting from very loyal listeners. My impression is that they also have the flexibility to weather musical fads and times when not much good stuff is being released by mixing in more recurrents, and classic rock. Perhaps AAA is also preferred over alternative by advertisers. In contrast, I believe the alternative stations that are being mentioned on this thread are focused on a rather narrow sliver of rock music-Current or relatively recent songs by well known alternative groups. This limited focus may be more subject to the ups and downs of what is in fashion.
And of course there are also many active rock stations, and others with slightly different formats, such as mainstream rock. The Shark on Long Island appears to be doing quite well with the latter format. Perhaps there could even be room in this market for a classic rock station that plays more recent songs than Q104, such as Rewind on Sirius XM.
So why should alternative rock be any more likely in New York than AAA or other rock formats?

 

[tjolsen]

the reason that people are assuming alternative is that overall the trend of format changes nation wide is to alternative leaning rock stations, as that is where the rock gener is moving. Active rock has been a bust in New York when ever it was tried, and in most north eastern major markets.

 

[mrbrightside]

With Cumulus expressing interest in a national rock brand (perhaps similar in concept to the Nash country group), it would not surprise me if New York does eventually get a rock station that plays more recent stuff than Q104.
But what I am not understanding from this very lengthy thread is why it is assumed that it would be focused on alternative rock. Alternative is just one of several rock formats that are popular around the country.
AAA stations tend to be around for many years. So perhaps they are benefiting from very loyal listeners. My impression is that they also have the flexibility to weather musical fads and times when not much good stuff is being released by mixing in more recurrents, and classic rock. Perhaps AAA is also preferred over alternative by advertisers. In contrast, I believe the alternative stations that are being mentioned on this thread are focused on a rather narrow sliver of rock music-Current or relatively recent songs by well known alternative groups. This limited focus may be more subject to the ups and downs of what is in fashion.
And of course there are also many active rock stations, and others with slightly different formats, such as mainstream rock. The Shark on Long Island appears to be doing quite well with the latter format. Perhaps there could even be room in this market for a classic rock station that plays more recent songs than Q104, such as Rewind on Sirius XM.
So why should alternative rock be any more likely in New York than AAA or other rock formats?

I would be fine with AAA as well, however, most AAA stations don't do well ratings wise, but have a highly loyal following. Listeners don't matter, only power ratios!

 

[Barry]

I would be fine with AAA as well, however, most AAA stations don't do well ratings wise, but have a highly loyal following. Listeners don't matter, only power ratios!

As numerous AAA stations have existed for a long time, perhaps they tend to have good power ratios, at least in comparison with certain other rock formats. That may help them stay profitable enough to stay on the air year after year, even if their audience size is relatively modest.
And if alternative rock music is popular in the market, an AAA station has the flexibility to play most of the alternative hits, as well as older stuff from the genre.
To the best of my knowledge, New York has never had a true AAA commercial station, such as The Peak in Westchester County.

 

[stevensonair]

WNEW was AAA for some months, but varied between a classic based, eclectic format and a "new rock alternative" format that was based in classic modern rock and currents.

 

[WNTIRadio]

Watching this thread go back and forth is like watching the two old guys from the Muppets arguing.

 

[davideduardo]

Watching this thread go back and forth is like watching the two old guys from the Muppets arguing.

It's more like one of the SyFy Channel programs, where no matter how many times you zap the aliens, they just come back, over and over.

 

[atlantaboy]

Judging from the last two pages, David you would be the one that people would be zapping

What do you think about this theory?

Alternative has a niche audience, which is a "fit" for some advertisers, but not for others - the same would be true for Urban, and for Country in non-Southern markets

Alternative stations can build up advertising if their station has decent ratings, but at a certain point, the advertising money maxes out, since some advertisers want to reach a broader demographic

That would explain why extremely high rated Alternative stations have low power ratios, and why moderately rated stations have high power ratios - it would also explain why the Urban and Country formats (according to you) do not have high power ratios either

 

[atlantaboy]

So why should alternative rock be any more likely in New York than AAA or other rock formats?

Active Rock is at a really low point right now - only 2 of the Top 10 markets have Active Rock stations (Chicago has a fringe one targeting suburbs) - and if you scroll through the ITunes Top 100, there isn't even one Active Rock track on there

AAA is tricky right now (in my opinion), because many developing new acts are synth-based, rather than guitar-based, and there aren't a large amount of singer/songwriters being broken right now, mostly bands - most of the higher rated Alternative stations, in the past couple years, have focused more on the adult end of the spectrum (than they had in the past), at least most of the Clear Channel ones - Radio 104.5 and Radio 105.7 are definitely adult-friendly Alternative stations, and they seem, on average, to be rated much higher than traditional AAAs

 

[atlantaboy]

I'll reply with this, naysayers are everywhere. People on this board said New York would never have a country station again, and look, NASH on 94.7. When Y100 in Philly went off the air in 2005, people on the Philly board said Philly would "never have a sweater wearing college alternative station" again, and we got Radio 104.5 (NUMBER ONE in A18-49) two years later.

I remember, last winter, having a 20-page long discussion with a certain other NYC-based poster who insisted that the Alternative format was dead, and would not work in Atlanta

Now, look what's happened... ;D

 

[atlantaboy]

I am familiar with the fact that it is likely the most unpredictable format for new launches. Therefore, the riskiest.

David, why don't you tell us about some of those unsuccessful "new launches" that have occurred in the last couple years

 

[atlantaboy]

Again, the point is that nobody in today's economy is going to give up cash flow and lose money for a year or so on something with no guarantee of doing any better.

Lol really? Clear Channel in Atlanta is losing money for a year? - Sun Radio in Ft. Myers?

Good thing you're not trying to spread misinformation... :

 

[davideduardo]

Lol really? Clear Channel in Atlanta is losing money for a year? - Sun Radio in Ft. Myers?

Clear Channel has little to lose in Atlanta. The format was billing about $2 million, and likely not profitable even with the lowest possible expenses. But even then, they gave up the existing revenue and will not get many significant buys until they have a 6 to 9 month period of salable ratings.

In Ft Myers, the situation was even easier to analyze: the alternative / active hybrid in the market changed format (gee, they must have loved the format) and another station, suffering from declining sales and sales-demo ratings and, snapped up the format. In other words, they move one rung up from the bottom on the food chain.

 

[davideduardo]

I am familiar with the fact that it is likely the most unpredictable format for new launches. Therefore, the riskiest.

David, why don't you tell us about some of those unsuccessful "new launches" that have occurred in the last couple years

Look nationally at any of the more recent changes to Alternative... starting with the low, low billings at WRFF. More established alternatives like KROQ and WWDC do much better.