Rock in New York City

[atlantaboy]

Obviously, there are reasons why a highly rated alternative station performs so poorly at the revenue generation stage. And that sort of question makes anyone in NYC antsy about switching a "perfectly good radio station" to alternative there.

Alright, I'm gonna need to start to bow out of this discussion, cause I think we've both made our points - if someone wants to flip a low performing NYC signal to Alternative they will, if not, they won't

I have a very hard time believing your stat that WRFF is 18th in billing, and in the past 12 hours no one on either the New York or Philadelphia board has been able to back you up - if they are truly #1 18-34, which AllAccess just posted that they are, and rank at or near the bottom of Philly radio in billings, something is incredibly wrong - it could be a misprint, you could have misinterpreted the information, or maybe Clear Channel had some huge expense they had to pay for - I have no idea

What I do know is that WRFF has a reputation for being an extremely successful Alternative station - so much so that Clear Channel flipped a Rhythmic CHR in Atlanta to an Alternative format modeled after Radio 104.5 in Philly, and in the past two months, share has gone from 1.8 (under Rhythmic CHR) to 3.3 (as an Alternative station)

DC101 in Washington is trending up, KROQ in L. A. is one of the top billings stations in the country, The Buzz in Houston is doing extremely well, Denver has an Alternative station in the Top 5, and the format is clearly in an upswing

I've got a successful Alternative station in Atlanta to listen to all the time, so I'm good - people can read what both of us have posted in this thread, and then make a decision about NYC

 

[davideduardo]

I have a very hard time believing your stat that WRFF is 18th in billing, and in the past 12 hours no one on either the New York or Philadelphia board has been able to back you up - if they are truly #1 18-34, which AllAccess just posted that they are, and rank at or near the bottom of Philly radio in billings, something is incredibly wrong - it could be a misprint, you could have misinterpreted the information, or maybe Clear Channel had some huge expense they had to pay for - I have no idea

Business 101: "Billing" is the gross income of a radio station before expenses. As the word would indicate, it is the amount the station charges advertisers and expects to get from them. Then the station pays operating expenses, and if anything is left over, that is BCF or Broadcast Cash Flow. Then interest, depreciation, amortizations, impairments, etc. are deducted and that is pre-tax profit.

Any special expenses would not impact billings.

The station billed $4.2 million in 2012. There is no interpretation or misprint there. The power ratio is 0.3. Pure math.

I illustrated the fact that there are quite a few stations in Philadelphia that have power ratios over a 1.0. That means that they are taking more than their "fair share" of revenue out of the market. That means that these over-performers take more of the money off the table than just their audience share would justify. Advertisers like them better... and at the end of the day, there is less money left over to go to the other stations that have a hard time selling time. WRFF is one of the underperformers.

What I do know is that WRFF has a reputation for being an extremely successful Alternative station

It gets good 18-34 and 18-49 numbers, but they can't sell it. Hello. That is why there is obviously a perception that this is a bad format choice for any currently profitable station in NYC.

- so much so that Clear Channel flipped a Rhythmic CHR in Atlanta to an Alternative format modeled after Radio 104.5 in Philly, and in the past two months, share has gone from 1.8 (under Rhythmic CHR) to 3.3 (as an Alternative station)

Again, the station was only billing $2 million a year. There was nothing to lose; it's a rimshot and may not be truly viable. But it is worth a gamble since there is no downside. All the NYC stations currently being mentioned except Pacifica have huge downside risk.

DC101 in Washington is trending up,

Heritage, with a long history of around a 1 power ratio.

KROQ in L. A. is one of the top billings stations in the country,

Heritage, in the #1 billing market in the US. It has a very high visibility in LA, and good buyer acceptance.

Neither are comparable to a startup, and much of the success of each is in their stability and reputation with buyers.

The Buzz in Houston is doing extremely well, Denver has an Alternative station in the Top 5, and the format is clearly in an upswing

You are basing your criteria of "doing well" on ratings... 6+ valueless ratings... and not revenue. Broadcasters look at conversion to revenue.

I gave you the figures from the Arbitron annual format analysis "Radio Today 2013" and it shows that alternative is up about 5% in share 2011 to 2012, but down about 20% over the last 5 years. The format is not, per the people who do the ratings themselves, on any sort of dramatic climb.

I've got a successful Alternative station in Atlanta to listen to all the time, so I'm good - people can read what both of us have posted in this thread, and then make a decision about NYC

The Atlanta station got one improved book. Agencies don't buy one book. They buy multi-book averages and trends. If the station does well going into the October or November, agencies will start to consider it. So the station is not "successful" by any standard.

And neither your thoughts nor mine will weigh a milligram in the format decisions about Alternative in NYC. We are both, here, armchair quarterbacks.

 

[hubcity]

The station billed $4.2 million in 2012. There is no interpretation or misprint there. The power ratio is 0.3. Pure math.

I illustrated the fact that there are quite a few stations in Philadelphia that have power ratios over a 1.0. That means that they are taking more than their "fair share" of revenue out of the market. That means that these over-performers take more of the money off the table than just their audience share would justify. Advertisers like them better... and at the end of the day, there is less money left over to go to the other stations that have a hard time selling time. WRFF is one of the underperformers.

This (though put far less tactfully) was the reason cited by Press Broadcasting in NJ when they flipped alt-formatted G-Rock to pop. And unfortunately, it may be true - or may be true enough in the perception of advertisers, which kind of makes it true regardless. Alternative listeners, the conventional wisdom goes, do not like to be sold to, know when they're being sold to, and avoid those sellers almost out of spite. It is thought that they don't like to be good little consumers.

And that's part of the reason I think Alternative's ultimate home, if it is to live at all, is on the noncommercial band, as a listener-supported format.

 

[davideduardo]

This (though put far less tactfully) was the reason cited by Press Broadcasting in NJ when they flipped alt-formatted G-Rock to pop. And unfortunately, it may be true - or may be true enough in the perception of advertisers, which kind of makes it true regardless.

This is part of the "it's only a good format for bail bonds, pawn shops and payday loans" stereotype. Whether true or not, it effects the viability and sales of alternative stations.

Operations like WWDC and KROQ have been around long enough to overcome the objections, and do well. Others don't do quite so well.

The "stereotype" or prejudice-based buying is a subject of itself. In 2011 the FCC adopted an administrative policy to combat "no Black" and "no Hispanic" buying dictates and require stations to certify that they include non-discrimination clauses in their contracts. Of course, this was a reaction to the traditionally lower power ratio of Spanish language and Black targeted stations.

 

[atlantaboy]

I'm gonna leave this to you guys to discuss, but I just wanted to post this passage dealing with Alternative that was just posted on AllAccess, dealing with the most recent format trends...

Alternative: The 18-34 shares for the Alternative format continued to grow this month as the format held up a trend of three straight months of gains. This month’s number (5.2) was the highest for Alternative since last Fall, and since the new year, the listening shares have grown by almost 20%.

Here's the URL...

http://www.arbitrontraining.com/Programming/2013Jun13_Mays-PPM-Format-Trends.htm

 

[Barry]

There is also an article in InsideRadio stating that both classic and contemporary rock stations are generally in an upswing.
It mentions this, concerning WMMR (mainstream rock/active rock? the labels for rock stations can be confusing) in Philadelphia:
"WMMR is No. 1 in persons 18-49, persons 25-54 and five other demos. “The Preston and Steve Show” topped the market in nine demos, including a 15.9 share in men 18-49. If that’s not enough, the morning show ranked top five in all 20 standard Arbitron demos."
Perhaps more advertisers will get on board if they become aware of these trends.
It will be interesting to learn the revenue figures for Nash FM down the road, as it has often been asserted that there is also advertiser bias against the country format in New York.

Rock is on a Roll: http://insideradio.com/Article.asp?id=2664265&spid=32060#.UbsYbtjD_s0

 

[chrocket87]

Oh, morning shows are huge in determining how successful rock stations are.
For example, the Kevin and Bean Show on KROQ is huge in making the station one of the top 10 in revenue.
In Detroit, Drew and Mike on WRIF was a blow away #1 in mornings (a few years ago, it topped the combined shares of the #2 and #3 morning shows). It boosted WRIF to be the 4th highest biller in Detroit. Sadly, the powerful duo was just released by Greater Media in May.
The big numbers for WMMR's morning show certainly help to explain it's huge ratings are strong power ratio.

 

[davideduardo]

Alternative: The 18-34 shares for the Alternative format continued to grow this month as the format held up a trend of three straight months of gains. This month’s number (5.2) was the highest for Alternative since last Fall, and since the new year, the listening shares have grown by almost 20%.

Let's put this in a more long-range perspective: 5 years ago, alternative had a 2.4 share nationally. Last year, it had a 1.9. So an increase in the last few months barely catches the format up with the levels of half a decade ago... a mostly non-PPM diary based era for the larger markets.

 

[davideduardo]

Perhaps more advertisers will get on board if they become aware of these trends.

It's worth noting that advertisers don't as a rule buy formats... they buy ratings of individual stations. Only when "eligible" stations (meaning those with a good rank in the target demo) are compared does format reach and appropriateness for a campaign come into play.

 

[MarkW]

A huge part of the reason WRFF bills so poorly in Philadelphia is WMMR:
--WMMR generally outperforms WRFF in the money demo.
--You can still reach a very large segment of 18-34's by advertising on WMMR..
--WMMR has a wildly successful morning show that can serve as the face of the brand. WRFF has no one.

Although DC 101 plays alt rock, from a market perception standpoint, they have more in common with the WMMRs of the world. That station has heritage that goes back decades, they position themselves as a "Rock" station, and they probably reach a a broader audience than a typical alt rock station.

I would be curious to know how well Radio 92.9 WBOS in Boston fares from a billing standpoint, as well as KYSR in Los Angeles.

105.7 in Atlanta has potential to make quite a bit of money. That is the perfect format for that frequency and that market given recent format shake-ups.

 

[XCountry285]

CC modeled Radio 105.7 in Atlanta after Radio 104.5 so they are doing something right in Philly. Also 98.7 in LA has music in the morning which does well. It's nicer to have someone do traffic & weather and news & sports, play a few commercials, & just play music. It sounds better this way. Personalities are nice however putting multiple people to talk on the radio is boring. Unfortunately Nash FM is going to have a morning show soon so there goes music in the morning.

 

[XCountry285]

I hope 103.9 becomes Alternative soon and hopefully gets some type of repeaters or something that will increase its coverage. I can't imagine it doing well on 103.9 because it's concentrated on the city. Alternative Rock is a suburban format much like Country and PLJ are.

 

[davideduardo]

CC modeled Radio 105.7 in Atlanta after Radio 104.5 so they are doing something right in Philly.

They get ratings, but can't monetize it.

Also 98.7 in LA has music in the morning which does well.

In 18-49 they have gone from 6th in mornings 9 months ago to 13th, and the overall station has gone from 7th to 14th. I see nothing "doing well" there, ratings wise, although that station does better in billings with a 0.85 power ratio.

It's nicer to have someone do traffic & weather and news & sports, play a few commercials, & just play music. It sounds better this way. Personalities are nice however putting multiple people to talk on the radio is boring.

Using LA as an example, now that you brought it up: Kevin & Bean are #1 18-49 in mornings, while the station is #4 overall. Guess what people actually want in mornings?

 

[davideduardo]

A huge part of the reason WRFF bills so poorly in Philadelphia is WMMR:

I agree with this, and with your reasoning. The lack of a strong morning presence hurts, too.

[/quote]Although DC 101 plays alt rock, from a market perception standpoint, they have more in common with the WMMRs of the world. That station has heritage that goes back decades, they position themselves as a "Rock" station, and they probably reach a a broader audience than a typical alt rock station.[/quote]

All of this is shown in the billing and Arbitron numbers. The fact that the station uses "rock" to sell and not "alternative" speaks to these facts.

I would be curious to know how well Radio 92.9 WBOS in Boston fares from a billing standpoint,

WBOS is 16th in revenue and 6th in 18-49 on average.

as well as KYSR in Los Angeles.

KYSR is down from last year's 6th or 7th in 18-49 to around 13th, and in billing is 18th. That 18th in billing is for 2012 when they were around 6th, 7th or 8th in ratings most of the time. Once the decline to 13th or so sinks in, they will likely be billing in the 20th to 22nd place range.

105.7 in Atlanta has potential to make quite a bit of money. That is the perfect format for that frequency and that market given recent format shake-ups.

Clear has had Atlanta problems for what seem like "ages" and this seems like a nice format match on a facility that was ill-suited to do rhythmic due to signal... and one which was billing just north of a measly $2 million a month.

 

[Brown Raven]

Professor,

Please just stop. We all get it. You don't have to answer your own posts. Please just stop!
Please! As an Alt Rock fan, I look to the message boards for a hint of optimism. I'm tired of your two week long whiz on this thread.

Yeah you know everything! You do. You know all the stuff! All praise you! Whoever you are!

I like to think music is cyclical, I like to think Radio makes moves illogically sometimes, and I like to think Rock in the No. 1 Market in the country can and will make a comeback!

Please just go back to your regular hole, please!

And can we all stop bringing up WRFF in Philly! It has a staff of 3, with CC in house promotions. It doesn't matter what it bills, they don't pay hardly anybody to work there!!!! Mornings are VT'ed from 6-Noon. Afternoons from Noon-6. I think the guy from LA does nights. Nobody LIVE ever! Except for the Friday thing.

INCREASE THE PPM SAMPLE!!! ROCK RADIO FOREVER!!!!!

 

[davideduardo]

Please just stop. We all get it. You don't have to answer your own posts. Please just stop!
Please! As an Alt Rock fan, I look to the message boards for a hint of optimism. I'm tired of your two week long whiz on this thread.

FLASH: we have further proof that denial is not just a river in Egypt.

Yeah you know everything! You do. You know all the stuff! All praise you! Whoever you are!

Gee, you did not think to click the link down below?

I like to think music is cyclical, I like to think Radio makes moves illogically sometimes, and I like to think Rock in the No. 1 Market in the country can and will make a comeback!

Per all the data, rock has been on a decline as a genre for the better part of two decades: share of radio listening, percentage of music sales, as a base of lifestyle groups, etc.

Please just go back to your regular hole, please!

Play nice, now!

And can we all stop bringing up WRFF in Philly! It has a staff of 3, with CC in house promotions. It doesn't matter what it bills, they don't pay hardly anybody to work there!!!! Mornings are VT'ed from 6-Noon. Afternoons from Noon-6. I think the guy from LA does nights. Nobody LIVE ever! Except for the Friday thing.

Back in the 70's, Beautiful music stations ran automated, had voicetracking, and were often the top billers in their markets. Airstaff size does not always relate to ratings, and has little correlation with billing.

Besides, the airstaff is only a part of the total costs of running a station.

INCREASE THE PPM SAMPLE!!!

Arbitron will gladly increase the sample. Stations would have to pay for it. Since the PPM already increased the cost of ratings by nearly 70% over the diary and since radio revenues are off 30% since the start of the recession, the money for the sample increase is not gonna' happen.

 

[WNTIRadio]

There HAS to be a better way than PPM alone to sample an audience. The sample size IS too small. If it's a non-comm station, or suburban or someone lower in the pack your entire "ratings" can be made up of 10 or 15 people. I've seen it when one leaves the panel and then the ratings take a dump. And everyone knows damn well the station didn't go from a 1.0 to a .6 in one month. And sure as s***, in 3 months, sometimes even one month, it's right back where it was before.

How about mixing diaries into the data sample with PPM. Since it doesn't require expensive equipment, and the panelists are only on for a week at a clip, it may make for better data. I have some client stations that are a network in a few markets, PPM and diary, and RRC combines the data into total audience figures.

Add some call out research? Anything? Hell, the next president can be pretty closely predicted by calling out a sample of people, why can't who's listening to a radio station be measured as well?

 

[davideduardo]

There HAS to be a better way than PPM alone to sample an audience. The sample size IS too small. If it's a non-comm station, or suburban or someone lower in the pack your entire "ratings" can be made up of 10 or 15 people. I've seen it when one leaves the panel and then the ratings take a dump. And everyone knows damn well the station didn't go from a 1.0 to a .6 in one month. And sure as s***, in 3 months, sometimes even one month, it's right back where it was before.

You are right about the numbers of meters producing the share data: a Top 10 station in LA will have, 10 and 20 meters detecting it in morning drive. When it comes to cume, though, the cume rating of a top ten cumer can be based on 600 to 900 meters.

However, in somewhat of a defense of the existing sample, stations with a 0.6 or whatever are not going to be selling on ratings. When a top station moves 0.4 up or down, it's considered a wobble. When it happens in a smaller station, it is considered a disaster.

The fact is that the margin of error can be calculated, and subscribers can even see the margin of error of every figure in a calculator on the subscriber website. And, agencies and other transactional buyers generally look at multi-book averages so the little ups and downs play out without much effect... unless they are real trends.

How about mixing diaries into the data sample with PPM.

We have the PPM in the 48 biggest markets because agencies pretty much demanded electronic measurement.

Of course, the big issue with the diary is that it mostly measures memory, not actual listening.

Add some call out research?

That involves cellular phones, since there is a growing and very high percentage of cell phone only households... approaching a third in many markets. Researchers have to hand dial cell phones to recruit, and it is costly. Plus, phone research is limited to about 24 hour recall... no weekly cume, no ability to combine usage data with week-based measurement.

Phone based research was used by Hooper and Pulse after door-to-door research became unsafe and impossible. That all ended in the 70's when Agencies decided to use Arbitron exclusively and Hooper closed, followed by The Pulse.

Anything? Hell, the next president can be pretty closely predicted by calling out a sample of people, why can't who's listening to a radio station be measured as well?

If there were 50 or so candidates (stations) running in hundreds of separate races (dayparts and demos) the results would be much less precise. In any case, the ratings are accurate enough for advertisers to place business by, and that is the standard for evaluation.

 

[atlantaboy]

Professor,

Please just stop. We all get it. You don't have to answer your own posts. Please just stop!
Please! As an Alt Rock fan, I look to the message boards for a hint of optimism. I'm tired of your two week long whiz on this thread.

99% sure that CBS is paying him/encouraging him to sit on the board all day and fabricate/exaggerate information about the Alternative format, that they know no one else has access to - Now is cheaper for CBS to run than Alternative would be (since they can use templates from other rhythmic-leaning CHRs), and a flip would ruin the reputation of CBS's other Rhythmic leaning CHRs, as well as mean layoffs and political issues

The same thing happened to me when I started a thread questioning CBS's decision to flip WZGC to Sports in Atlanta - CBS had a poster literally stay on the board 24/7, arguing with every post questioning their decision, for a time period of more than a week

 

[chrocket87]

I'm sure CBS is concerned about posts from Internet fanboys who have no business knowledge outside of 6+ ratings.

Could you share whatever you're smoking? I'd love to be half as delusional as you are. :