Rock in New York City

[chrocket87]

Oh, I agree that WFAS could and should go to some form of rock when it moves in. I disagree with any suggestion that Now go rock.

 

[davideduardo]

CBS radio execs just plain do not like rock music - their CHRs lean Rhythmic, their Hot ACs lean Rhythmic, and now one of the remaining Alternative stations they own is guess what...leaning Rhythmic :

That's not a verifiable statement. One of CBS's most consistent and profitable stations is KROQ in LA.

CBS does not like or dislike genres of music. They like making money.

So if the CHRs tend to be rhythmic hybrids, that is because such is the market preference, shown by ratings and research, in the markets where they have rhythmic CHRs. Often, such as in places like LA and Chicago, this is because the markets have large Hispanic populations and / or considerable influence from r&b.

Hot AC's can lean alternative (in which case they underperform in ethnic delivery) or rhythmic (where they will overperform, particularly with Hispanics). The choice is market driven, and has just about nothing to do with management "preferences" in music.

As to rock itself, you might check out the Edison studies in youth preferences from 2000 and 2010. The interest and passion for rock is in severe decline... a fact that station owners see and use to decide about committing a station to a genre with diminishing returns.

 

[Barry]

As the music mix on many Jack stations leans towards rock, I wonder whether starting up one again in New York may be more successful than straight ahead alternative or modern rock.
Though the oldies fans upset that Jack was on 101.1 tend to portray it as an epic failure, I recall that Jack had decent ratings for a rock oriented station in New York (I do miss it).

 

[atlantaboy]

As to rock itself, you might check out the Edison studies in youth preferences from 2000 and 2010. The interest and passion for rock is in severe decline... a fact that station owners see and use to decide about committing a station to a genre with diminishing returns.

That study is completely irrelevant, since most major market Alternative stations cater to 25-34 (which is not "youth") - this is why there are successful Alternative stations in almost every major market, and why many Alternative tracks are scoring BETTER ON THE I-TUNES CHART than they are in national radio airplay

When you scan Arbitron, the Alternative format is MORE POPULAR than the extreme rhythmic-leaning CHR format that Now 92.3 represents - which is why ratings went up when Clear Channel flipped Wild in Atlanta to Radio 105.7

New York is an exception - and I don't think it's the listeners - I think it's people in NYC radio, heavily influenced by CBS (whose headquarters is there), convinced that Alt/Rock is not popular, no matter what they see on the I-Tunes chart, or how many successful stations there are in literally almost every single Top 20 market besides their own

@chrrocket - the Alternative format does attract a slightly wealthier demo, just like Triple A - that's been true for 20 years now - but I'm not sure it even matters, seeing as how most Alternative stations are ranking better in their demo than Now 92.3 is currently

 

[atlantaboy]

So if the CHRs tend to be rhythmic hybrids, that is because such is the market preference, shown by ratings and research, in the markets where they have rhythmic CHRs. Often, such as in places like LA and Chicago, this is because the markets have large Hispanic populations and / or considerable influence from r&b.

David - you understand that in nearly every market, the CBS CHR-Rhythmic hybrids are losing

Also, I can't believe you cited a study from 2010 to determine what music should be programmed in 2013 - that survey was pre-Mumford & Sons, pre-Fun, pre-Gotye, pre-Lumineers, etc.

There's a whole new genre of Alt/Rock that's developed since then

 

[davideduardo]

David - you understand that in nearly every market, the CBS CHR-Rhythmic hybrids are losing

You are not seeing the nuances here.

Amp in LA has been a major success, with a much smaller budget than KIIS and returns that are very positive for the cluster. In 18-34 women, Amp delivers about 75% of the KIIS levels, and is in the top 4 or 5. In billing, it is now 9th in the market, and grew nearly 15% 2011-2012, while KIIS did not register significant growth.

In Chicago, B-96 is consistently top 5 in its target of women 18-34, and outbills by about 20% its direct CHR format competitor.

Those are just two examples... but they are in the two markets representing about 9% of all radio revenue in the US!

CBS has been the best performer from the beginning of PPM measurements, having actively participated in the PPM rollout going back nearly 12 years to the Philly tests. They learned, and they have implemented well. And, of course, you don't see them kicking asphyxiating debt down the road; they are solidly profitable in the radio division.

Also, I can't believe you cited a study from 2010 to determine what music should be programmed in 2013 - that survey was pre-Mumford & Sons, pre-Fun, pre-Gotye, pre-Lumineers, etc.

The study is the second decennial youth market study from Edison. It is not intended to show what is going to be Top 10 on the Billboard chart. It is intended to show long term trends in media consumption and related areas. What it shows is that there is a declining interest in rock among younger people... and when taste preferences are not formed in 12-24, they are not going to form just because the Lumineers came on the scene.

There's a whole new genre of Alt/Rock that's developed since then

But people who formed preferences in their teen and early adult lives do not, as the follow up study of the 25-34's who were in the original 2000 study shows, change their preferences to any significant extent later on.

 

[davideduardo]

That study is completely irrelevant, since most major market Alternative stations cater to 25-34 (which is not "youth")

Music tastes are formed in youth. If you were not rock-leaning in your primary formative years, you will almost absolutely not lean towards rock when you are over 25.

Look at http://www.edisonresearch.com/Edison_Research_American_Youth_Study_Radios_Future.pdf and go to page 36.

There is a Spanish saying of "what isn't born does not grow". Youth is not using rock or rock radio for entertainment and that trend is growing. Thus there are fewer 25-34's who might become listeners to Alternative stations.

When you scan Arbitron, the Alternative format is MORE POPULAR than the extreme rhythmic-leaning CHR format that Now 92.3 represents - which is why ratings went up when Clear Channel flipped Wild in Atlanta to Radio 105.7

Wild was a less than great station, with a challenged, rimshot signal. It has never billed more than about $2 million and change in a market where one station does nearly $40 million. And its signal did not match the more central core concentration of rhythmic CHR audiences. It's just a bad example... bad signal, wrong format on the signal, and a cluster that has seemingly always underperformed.

New York is an exception - and I don't think it's the listeners - I think it's people in NYC radio, heavily influenced by CBS (whose headquarters is there), convinced that Alt/Rock is not popular, no matter what they see on the I-Tunes chart, or how many successful stations there are in literally almost every single Top 20 market besides their own

That's absurd. The location of a corporation's home office has nothing to do with the products they offer in any kind of business or industry.

CBS, like the other major broadcasters, uses consumer research to determine what formats to employ and what music to play on them. iTunes downloads are not a significant factor in these decisions because the data is not accurate to specific geographies and specific demos.

the Alternative format does attract a slightly wealthier demo, just like Triple A - that's been true for 20 years now - but I'm not sure it even matters,

You are right... it does not matter, since most radio buys are build based on age and gender demos, not income levels.

 

[chrocket87]

I have two big concerns about the long-term viability of Modern Rock:

First, atlantaboy, you are right about the increased crossover of Alt-rock today, but remember, when this study began, Nickelback, Linkin Park, Lifehouse, Creed, and Staind were racking up some huge crossover hits. On top of that, Limp Bizkit and Kid Rock were selling like hotcakes and were huge with the TRL crowd (the exact same demo as this study). If these acts couldn't jolt rock for youngsters, why should today's artists make us more confident about the format?

Second, America isn't getting whiter and Modern Rock isn't very popular with non-white demos. Perhaps the increased electronic-based product will help in these demos, but Alternative needs to broaden it's appeal in the long run. The increased female listenership is a positive sign.

 

[XCountry285]

What makes you say that rock isn't popular with non-whites?

 

[davideduardo]

What makes you say that rock isn't popular with non-whites?

Modern or Alternative rock "underindexes" among Hispanics everywhere in the US. There is nowhere in the US where alternative stations do as well as or better with Hispanics as they do with non-Hispanic whites.

("Hispanic" is a cultural denominator or ethnicity, not a race. 90% of Hispanics classified as "white" in the 2010 Census so using the term "non-whites" is inaccurate as well as inappropriate)

While rock of the AOR-classic rock-traditional type has always been fairly popular among upper and middle socioeconomic levels in Latin America, alternative has not met anywhere near the same acceptance.

Alternative underindexes even more with African Americans.

 

[atlantaboy]

I feel like we're really overanalyzing this - New York City is the only Top 10 market without an Alternative station, and most Top 40 markets have financially successful Alternative stations - we don't need a study telling us whether Alternative is popular with certain demos, because we have a large number of solidly rated and high billing stations that show us that it is

My guess is that the study in question, back in 2010, dealt with Nickelback, Daughtry, Matchbox 20, 3 Doors Down, etc., and it would've been correct that those bands weren't popular with the younger generation whose parents listened to those bands

But it is now 2013, and a whole new genre of Alternative music has developed, based on the tastes of the current youth generation - Mumford & Sons, Fun, Ed Sheeran, Florence & The Machine, Imagine Dragons, Muse, Of Monsters And Men, the Lumineers draw huge youth crowds at their concerts

The 3rd most downloaded album on ITunes is Queens Of The Stone Age - the 4th most downloaded album is Imagine Dragons - the 9th most downloaded album is The Lumineers - the 13th most downloaded album is Vampire Weekend - the 15th most downloaded album is Nine Inch Nails - the 17th most downloaded album is Fall Out Boy

The idea that Alternative isn't popular with 25-44, or even 18-34, in 2013 is antiquated, and New York City radio is simply out of date in terms of not providing their metro with an entire genre of music with a strong, loyal fanbase

CBS has a station that hasn't gotten higher than a 2.2 for at least the past year, and I don't have the demo rank, but it is obviously low, since two CHRs, a Rhythmic, and two Hot ACs are all well above it

 

[GSP163]

But if Cumulus goes ahead and moves WFAS into New York, we then have in essence a new station. And I recall that Cumulus CEO Lew Dickey not too long ago has expressed interest in creating a rock brand, perhaps along the lines of the new Nash country station branding. And they do retain the WRXP calls, which they inexplicably used on 94.7 in January.
As WFAS would have a signal that is limited compared with the major stations, perhaps a format that is somewhat different such as modern rock would make sense, as it would not be able to compete with them on the more lucrative formats.

I think we still need to wait awhile before 103.9 moves. They are waiting to see if the FCC will allow the 3 watt 94.3 W232AL to move from Pomona to the WFAS transmitter site where it will broadcast 250 Watts. Cumulus will want to use 94.3 to transmit WFAS AM-1230 which is my guess is where the WFAS-FM format is heading. So until we know more of the future of 94.3, 'FAS-FM will stay on 103.9

 

[WNTIRadio]

But it is now 2013, and a whole new genre of Alternative music has developed, based on the tastes of the current youth generation - Mumford & Sons, Fun, Ed Sheeran, Florence & The Machine, Imagine Dragons, Muse, Of Monsters And Men, the Lumineers draw huge youth crowds at their concerts

Most of those artists are found on either CHR or Hot AC now... that's the problem, other than the "harder" stuff, all of these artists have crossed over to the mainstream.

What will never happen but I can dream about is that Cumulus moves 103.9 and puts a very WLIR-ish format on the air. Not a throwback WLIR, but what it would be if it kept going.

 

[tjolsen]

As has been pointed out, the format is fundamentally different then it was the last time(s) a rock station was attempted with a full budget and push (Krock
and RXP circa 2008-2010 overlap) and both were not well programmed for the market. Urban alternative stations need to lean indie rock with nothing older
then 90s cross over and a focus on currents, like RXP 2.0 did, and Radio 104.5 and 105.7 are doing with success in their respective markets. New York
had a passionate audience for what is now called alternative long before many other markets.
Modern alternative also has lots of cross over potential as most of it is not nearly as abrasive as the it was when artists like Three Days Grace, Shinedown
Etc. were dominating the charts, and not crossing over to CHR at all.
The summer should be the ideal time to launch such a format with a heavy push due to how many large events with alternative artists will be going on all
Over the city.

 

[Brooklyndon]

Bring Danny back and have her program 92.3 like she programmed K-Rock 2. Observe niche audience materialize.

Not sure it'd bring in more money than another sports talk station though. We need more sports talk.

 

[davideduardo]

My guess is that the study in question, back in 2010, dealt with Nickelback, Daughtry, Matchbox 20, 3 Doors Down, etc., and it would've been correct that those bands weren't popular with the younger generation whose parents listened to those bands

If you bothered to read the description of methodology, you would see that the study was not about individual artists. In fact, the study was not just about music... it was about media and entertainment trends and preferences among 12-17 and 18-24 year olds.

The purpose of the study, which, like the US Census, is done at 10 year intervals, is to show interest in broad areas, not ephemeral items like specific artists.

The fact is that the two decennial studies have shown that teens and young adults have a declining interest in any form of rock. This fact is a major consideration for any station debating a new format; while a station in a format now would remain as long as it is viable, a new entry to a shrinking category would be unwise.

The trending of Alternative across all markets is detailed in Arbitron's Radio Today 2013 where on page 124 the trending since 2005 shows an unmistakable downtrend:

2005 2.4%
2006 2.1%
2007 2.1%
2008 2.2%
2009 2.1%
2010 2.1%
2011 1.8%
2012 1.9%

While there is a small upwards tick in the last period, overall the shares are off by 20% over the last 7 years. Not a good sign for future sustainability.

And that's the real issue in any format flip: is the genre strong enough to sustain and grow a station, or is the owner not going to be able to make up for the costs of the flip (lost revenue, etc) and are they going to see diminishing returns?

But it is now 2013, and a whole new genre of Alternative music has developed, based on the tastes of the current youth generation - Mumford & Sons, Fun, Ed Sheeran, Florence & The Machine, Imagine Dragons, Muse, Of Monsters And Men, the Lumineers draw huge youth crowds at their concerts

And, as another poster observed, much of the interest in alternative comes from the crossover songs and acts that have found a place on CHR radio and on Hot AC stations.

The idea that Alternative isn't popular with 25-44, or even 18-34, in 2013 is antiquated, and New York City radio is simply out of date in terms of not providing their metro with an entire genre of music with a strong, loyal fanbase

If we go by the strictest definition of stations that meet Arbitron and industry definitions of Alternative, there are only 93 Alternative stations out of 15,000 total stations in the US.

The most relied on source of station valuations and information does not show an Alternative FM main channel station in markets 3, 6,7,8, 11, 12, 14, 16, 19, 21, 23, 28, 29, 30, 34, 36 and 38. So much for "all of the top 40 markets except New York."

And some of the existing Alternative stations, like KITS, KENZ and WRRV, are not doing particularly well... and would appear to be screaming for format change.

 

[Theater of My Mind]

Everyone knows popular music trends are cyclical. It looks like Alternative bottomed out in 2011 and is hopefully back on the upswing with some of the excellent artists mentioned earlier. This is also reflected in the number of alternative songs crossing over to CHR, but as usual CHR is only jumping on most of them months after they're peaked in their primary format.

Kudos to the alt-rock stations who have stuck with it through the bottom of the cycle but it's not like the big labels have been helping matters, and the big radio is loathe to embrace anything indie which is where so much of the good new rock is at right now.

Beyond the normal popular music cycles, I think we might be seeing the radio and music industries starting to reap what they've sown through years of ignoring the younger audiences, and manufacturing dreck with quarterly profits trumping any real vision for the future.

So what happens very soon when the classic rock and conservative talk audiences age out of the advertising demo? Is every station supposed to flip to sports? At some point all of those once-younger people you alienated by ignoring them are not going to be turning to radio at all, no matter what format you try.

 

[davideduardo]

Everyone knows popular music trends are cyclical. It looks like Alternative bottomed out in 2011 and is hopefully back on the upswing with some of the excellent artists mentioned earlier.

But you miss the radio perspective.

Radio formats constantly go through cycles in new music. When the new stuff is weak, there is more dependency on the gold library. Stations like KROQ, with decades in the format, show that the ups and downs are weathered quite well using this sort of practice.

However, in the long range, the fact remains that the whole rock genre or spectrum is on a long term decline as there is far less conversion of young teens into "rockers" than in decades past.

This is also reflected in the number of alternative songs crossing over to CHR, but as usual CHR is only jumping on most of them months after they're peaked in their primary format.

But, as was observed by WNTIRadio, most of the "thirst" for those exceptional alternative songs is sated by the CHR play; those hearing a few good current songs from the genre in a pop CHR mix are not necessarily going to become partisans of a 100% alternative format.

...and the big radio is loathe to embrace anything indie which is where so much of the good new rock is at right now.

I don't know where anyone gets the idea that radio, big or small, has any prejudice or inclination against independent labels. Radio tends to be pretty "brand neutral" when it comes to new adds.

At some point all of those once-younger people you alienated by ignoring them are not going to be turning to radio at all, no matter what format you try.

First, consider that only a small percentage of "once younger people" are even into rock. Some are into rhythmic and hip hop, others are into Regional Mexican and others are into pop and CHR... and today, many are into the new generation of country.

Radio gives less than full attention to alternative as a format because it only works in certain markets and in certain cases... and in markets where alternative does not have and has not had an alternative voice, it is hard to build a constituency and make money because there are too few partisans to be successful.

 

[Theater of My Mind]

But, as was observed by WNTIRadio, most of the "thirst" for those exceptional alternative songs is sated by the CHR play; those hearing a few good current songs from the genre in a pop CHR mix are not necessarily going to become partisans of a 100% alternative format.

I don't believe this is true. Sure CHR works for its target audience, primarily females who like to hear the hits from across various genres but are mainly into pop. But I don't believe the majority of 18-34yo white male listeners are "satiated" by having to hear Chris Brown, Justin Beiber and Taylor Swift on the radio before they can hear something that interests them. Instead, I think there are lots of old men in executive positions at both radio and record companies who are too out of touch with that audience to be able to come up with the music they'd like to hear, presented in a way they'd like to hear it.

I don't know where anyone gets the idea that radio, big or small, has any prejudice or inclination against independent labels.

Wow. Well David, you strike me as quite a competent analyst when it comes to statistics. If you have some time why don't you take a look at what percentage of music being played on commercial radio comes from truly independent artists? My observation is that big radio tends to be on big music's payroll. Witness the latest "partnerships" between the biggest radio companies and the biggest record labels. How do indie rock artists fit into that business plan?

First, consider that only a small percentage of "once younger people" are even into rock. Some are into rhythmic and hip hop, others are into Regional Mexican and others are into pop and CHR... and today, many are into the new generation of country.

To clarify, it's about currently-younger people. But someone who wants to hear Regional Mexican is NOT going to be buying rock music. Not in 1973, not in 1993, and not today. Hip hop, country listeners, this isn't about them either. But if this is the line of thinking by the executives in the industry today, then no wonder the real rock audience isn't being served.

The truth is I think the alternative rock audience is alive and well but has gone elsewhere where they can hear their music on their own terms, not on a big-C radio corporate agenda. But that's a shame. Radio should never have abandoned them, and the last rendition of WRXP proved that rock can still sound good on FM even on a shoestring budget. It even attracted a respectable audience in its target male demo in the short 4 months it had to start getting a foothold.

 

[atlantaboy]

The most relied on source of station valuations and information does not show an Alternative FM main channel station in markets 3, 6,7,8, 11, 12, 14, 16, 19, 21, 23, 28, 29, 30, 34, 36 and 38. So much for "all of the top 40 markets except New York."

I have no clue where you're getting your facts from, bud...

Market #3 - Chicago has WKQX
Market #6 - Houston has KTBZ
Market #7 - Washington has WWDC
Market #8 - Philadelphia has WRFF

I'm not even going to continue - you should really do a little more research to familiarize yourself with the format and its stations, rather than relying on broad facts and figures you remember reading about in 2010