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Rock in New York City

Theater of My Mind said:
But I don't believe the majority of 18-34yo white male listeners are "satiated" by having to hear Chris Brown, Justin Beiber and Taylor Swift on the radio before they can hear something that interests them.

You are still missing the point that there are far fewer alternative rock oriented 18-34 non-Hispanic white males today, because there has been, for well over a decade and a half, a decline in the interest in rock by youth.

If you look at the areas of sociology that study the formation of musical taste, you'll see that the base is laid in the early years of adolescence. So today's non-Hispanic white male in the 18-34 group grew up in the era when members of his peer group were more into Hip-hop than rock and where interest in dance, rhythmic and country were all growing.

In the big metro areas, the influence of combined Black and Hispanic communities that sometimes surpass half the market has been huge; those two ethnicities now make up over a third of the population and is even higher a percentage in 18-34. The effect of the changing ethnic composition of the country has been a decrease in interest in alternative, or an aging in the interest group for other kinds of rock.

Instead, I think there are lots of old men in executive positions at both radio and record companies who are too out of touch with that audience to be able to come up with the music they'd like to hear, presented in a way they'd like to hear it.

There are a bunch of people in record companies who know that they can make more money with Pitbull than with alternative acts because alternative has much lower interest outside the US... where 95% of the world's population lives. Look at how rhythmic and pop songs are charting worldwide, while few alternative songs are big everywhere. Taylor Swift can have #1 songs in Chile and Hong Kong, but alternative songs generally are noticeably absent unless they are really alternative artists doing pop.

Wow. Well David, you strike me as quite a competent analyst when it comes to statistics. If you have some time why don't you take a look at what percentage of music being played on commercial radio comes from truly independent artists?

As someone who spent years picking songs or being part of music committees or oversight groups, I'd say that the simple reason why few indies make it is that few of them are very good. Artists don't, generally, go with indie labels. They go indie because they can't sign with Sony or WEA or Universal's label lineups.

My observation is that big radio tends to be on big music's payroll.

That sure explains why radio and the NAB are aggressively lobbying against the labels on the Hill, then. Not. Radio and the music industry are now adversaries, and relationships are at an all-time low. Of course, much of this is because it is hard for any record label to make money...

Witness the latest "partnerships" between the biggest radio companies and the biggest record labels. How do indie rock artists fit into that business plan?

Actually, the "partnerships" are not really that... they are alliances to avoid prohibitive digital royalties, and are made with medium size and small labels. Big Machine, not Sony. In fact, the big international labels have not come to the table on this matter... because they like to bleed internet and digital stations to death.

To clarify, it's about currently-younger people. But someone who wants to hear Regional Mexican is NOT going to be buying rock music. Not in 1973, not in 1993, and not today. Hip hop, country listeners, this isn't about them either. But if this is the line of thinking by the executives in the industry today, then no wonder the real rock audience isn't being served.

But with increasing ethnic communities in the US, and increased interest in rhythmic and country, there is less interest by fewer people in rock. And the international potential of rhythmic and pop is vastly greater than for rock.

The truth is I think the alternative rock audience is alive and well but has gone elsewhere where they can hear their music on their own terms, not on a big-C radio corporate agenda. But that's a shame. Radio should never have abandoned them, and the last rendition of WRXP proved that rock can still sound good on FM even on a shoestring budget. It even attracted a respectable audience in its target male demo in the short 4 months it had to start getting a foothold.

The problem with alternative is that it is highly fragmented. I have been at alternative music AMTs for medium sized markets, and within the core of a regional station, there are 3 or 4 subsets, none of which much likes the music the other three groups like.- So for radio, it is hard to keep all these groups happy... and today, those little fragmented segments can find better online alternatives. No station can keep the whole alternative spectrum happy, as there is no broad coalition taste group... just subsets. That's why alternative is programmed on such a small group of stations in the US and underexposed in most of the rest of the world.
 
atlantaboy said:
I have no clue where you're getting your facts from, bud...

My name is not "bud" and you don't win points in debate by demeaning the opposing presenter...

Market #3 - Chicago has WKQX

WKQX is an alternative station in the Champaign / Urbana market.

Did you, perhaps, mean WRXQ? That's a rimshot Class A from a metro county with only 50 k population and which barely manages to appear in the book.

Market #6 - Houston has KTBZ

KTBZ defines itself as Modern Rock, not alternative. I'll accept the proximity of the formats, but I was very specific in saying that certain markets did not have a station that either self-defined as Alternative or was called alternative by the recognized industry source for station data of this sort, BIA.

Market #7 - Washington has WWDC

Again, the industry's most respected source calls WWDC "rock" and not "alternative."

Market #8 - Philadelphia has WRFF

Same as DC.

I'm not even going to continue - you should really do a little more research to familiarize yourself with the format and its stations

I gave you a data from Arbitron's Radio Today 2013 which shows Alternative to have less than a 2 share of national listening. Even given the ambiguities of "what is alternative" and what is not, we are looking, by comparison, at country with over a 14 share, CHR with over an 8 share, adult contemporary with 8 shares, classic hits with 5 shares, classic rock with over a 5 share, Hot AC rapidly approaching 5 shares...

... and even Mexican regional at 2.9 shares, 50% more than Alternative.

There are a half-dozen other formats such as urban, urban AC, adult hits (Jack) and such that all do better than alternative.

https://marcomm.arbitron.com/downloads/Radio_Today_2013.pdf is the location of the original source data.

One observation worth making is that, if we accept that WWDC, The Buzz and WRFF are close enough to being alternative to include them in consideration, then why do those stations self-describe for sales purposes as rock or modern rock? Could it be that there is a sales issue where one of the problems with the format is buyer resistance?
 
The Chicago station is actually a Channel 6 LPTV - branded as "Q 87.7."
 
David, you wrote that Jack tends to have better ratings than the alternative rock format. I also recall you posting a while back that Jack did reasonably well when it aired in New York, at least pre-PPM.
Do you think bringing back a rock-oriented Jack format would have better prospects than alternative rock?
What about AAA? Would that eclectic rock format have a decent chance?
 
DavidEduardo said:
But with increasing ethnic communities in the US, and increased interest in rhythmic and country, there is less interest by fewer people in rock.

We're clearly not going to agree on this issue today but I'd just like to point out that four out of the top ten on the Billboard 200 this coming week are by rock acts, including Queens of the Stone Age which debuts at #1. But you won't hear it on the radio in New York because there's not a station that plays them.

As far as I'm concerned there are some very clear signals that something is wrong here. Big radio is Out. Of. Touch.
 
Theater of My Mind said:
As far as I'm concerned there are some very clear signals that something is wrong here. Big radio is Out. Of. Touch.

I think this is a blanket indictment and an unfair one.

CBS has a terrific alternative station in KROQ, and has made its PD, Kevin Weatherly a very important part of CBS Radio.

But changing formats on existing stations is an expensive as well as risky proposition.

Clear Channel, whether they "like" alternative or not, is not going to switch formats on any NY station because all their stations are performing very, very well.

CBS has two stations that might be in question, Now and Fresh. But Now keeps Z-100 down. And Fresh limits Lite FM. And each bills enough to warrant keeping the format. Changing a format means leaving around $15 million on the table while (and if) a new format establishes itself... money which would take a number of years to make back if the new endeavor succeeds.

The remaining full signal stations are generally successful enough for it to be said that it is unlikely any would take a risk on something new. And, of course, several of them are part of organizations like SBS, Univision or ESPN that are focused on specific formats or market segments and wouldn't change for any reason.

There may be audience that is underserved. There is not any reason, from a business perspective, to take risks and to enter a period of negative cash flow just to "spin the wheel".
 
David, I have absolutely no clue what point you're trying to make (pertaining to that 6:19 post)

We're discussing the prospects for the Alternative format in New York City. Chicago, Houston, Washington, Philaldelphia, Detroit, and most other Top 40 markets have stations reporting to the Mediabase Alternative chart, and many of these stations are doing very well, some extremely well

The sources you're using are antiquated and show absolutely no understanding of the format - to call Radio 104.5/Philly "Rock" instead of "Alternative" (and counting it as a separate format) is about as ignorant as you can get - it reports to the Alternative panel, and pretty much mirrors the playlist

Counting "Modern Rock" and "Alternative" as different formats is like counting "Today's Hits" and "Power Hits" as two different formats - they're slogans/taglines, not specific subgenres

Here's a link to the Mediabase Alternative panel - you can click on each station and look at the playlist, and look at how stations are doing ratings-wise as well - then, IMO, you'll be in a position to discuss the prospects of an Alternative station in New York City in an educated, informed manner

http://www.allaccess.com/mediabase/q/report/stations/by/format/for/R3
 
atlantaboy said:
David, I have absolutely no clue what point you're trying to make (pertaining to that 6:19 post)

We're discussing the prospects for the Alternative format in New York City. Chicago, Houston, Washington, Philaldelphia, Detroit, and most other Top 40 markets have stations reporting to the Mediabase Alternative chart, and many of these stations are doing very well, some extremely well

Stations do not "report" to the MediaBase chart. MediaBase selects stations for each chart based on "closest match" and monitors them electronically and creates the airplay chart based on the detected spins.

MediaBase decides what panel a station is incorporated into, and at times, when a format is borderline, the decision is fundamentally arbitrary and based on the advice of MediaBase's outside consultants and their own staff.

Of course, the idea that 6+ numbers are any indication of whether a station is doing well is patently absurd.

(As an aside, I have heard of markets being clustered as the Top 10, Top 20, Top 25, Top 50 and Top 100, but never Top 40. "Top 40" is a format, not an industry standard market grouping)

The sources you're using are antiquated and show absolutely no understanding of the format

The sources I am using include Arbitron's SIP, which shows how stations self-describe each quarter to Arbitron for the purpose of having their format correctly listed in the "format" field in agency software. The other source is BIA, which is updated daily.

to call Radio 104.5/Philly "Rock" instead of "Alternative" (and counting it as a separate format)

Tell that to the station so that they can follow your advice for the Summer SIP.

is about as ignorant as you can get - it reports to the Alternative panel, and pretty much mirrors the playlist

I already said I have no trouble accepting WWDC, The Buzz and the Philly stations as alternative for the purpose of discussion. However, I told you also that I had originally looked only at those stations which self-describe for sales and ratings purposes as alternative. Those three were not on the two lists I looked at.

Again, no station reports to MediaBase. MediaBase monitors stations whether they like it or not.

Counting "Modern Rock" and "Alternative" as different formats is like counting "Today's Hits" and "Power Hits" as two different formats - they're slogans/taglines, not specific subgenres

I'm glad you think so. In any case, the stations in question don't think they are alternative, and don't use that term. And again, I said that I'm not opposed to analyzing those stations as if they had self-described as alternative. It does not change the fact that, nationally, alternative shares are on a decline, rock in general is on a decline, and station owners can see the trends if they are considering format options in New York.

The big picture is that station owners are not going to look favorably at converting a profitable station to a format and genre which is in decline in market shares. A commitment to a format change in New York on a profitable station means sacrificing perhaps $12 to $15 million in revenue at a minimum... and stations are loath to do that today. Of course, we remember the revenue loss at CBS-FM even though the 25-54 numbers actually improved!

Here's a link to the Mediabase Alternative panel - you can click on each station and look at the playlist, and look at how stations are doing ratings-wise as well - then, IMO, you'll be in a position to discuss the prospects of an Alternative station in New York City in an educated, informed manner

Unlike you, I get much of my ratings data, particularly for markets like NY, Chicago, LA, SF, Dallas, Houston... directly from Arbitron. And I can look at the target demos, not the useless 6+ and I can also access billings figures and market data via other services.

I don't use MediaBase any longer, as I have paid access to BDS... six of one, half dozen of another as they both work the same way.

The point of all this explanation is that I can see why Clear Channel will not flip a station in NY. I can see why CBS accepts less than top performance on two FMs in NY and why it would be too costly to flip. And I can see why ESPN, Emmis, UVN, SBS, Yucaipa and Cumulus would not flip, either... because this is a business and such format flips don't appear to make any sense at this time.
 
"Modern or Alternative rock "underindexes" among Hispanics everywhere in the US."

Doesn't KROQ do fairly well with Hispanic males?
 
briancraig said:
"Modern or Alternative rock "underindexes" among Hispanics everywhere in the US."

Doesn't KROQ do fairly well with Hispanic males?

It still underindexes... despite the fact that much of the 18-34 Hispanic population is now second generation... even more so in 18-24.
 
atlantaboy said:
We're discussing the prospects for the Alternative format in New York City. Chicago, Houston, Washington, Philaldelphia, Detroit, and most other Top 40 markets have stations reporting to the Mediabase Alternative chart, and many of these stations are doing very well, some extremely well

Here are some examples of how your statements represent magnificent hyperbole, using some of the stations and markets you brought up:

Houston. Billing off by 8% from 2011 to 2012, while the market was flat.

Philadelphia. Billing up about 5% 2011 to 2012, but they are 18th in the market in revenue with one of the worst power ratios for a significant facility that I have ever seen... 0.3.

Detroit. CIMX down from a 4 share in 2011 to a 2.1 average for the Jan-Feb-Mar books. It averages 13th in 18-49 and 14th in 25-49.

Chicago. WKQX-LP has averaged in the 12th to 14th range in the 18-49 target demo. Not bad for a horrible, off band signal but not a success, either.

WWDC. Revenue flat and ranked 9th in the market; market up slightly 2011 to 2012.

San Francisco. KITS is 22nd in billing, despite a 5% increase year to year. It bills one-fifth of what the two leading stations each bill. It's 15th in its core demo of 18-49... where even the Spanish language adult hits station is 7th!
 
DavidEduardo said:
I'm glad you think so. In any case, the stations in question don't think they are alternative, and don't use that term.

Really? Let's look at Radio 104.5/Philadelphia's website...

http://www.radio1045.com/main.html

And lol they don't "think they are Alternative"? Their entire playlist is based on the Alternative chart, not the Active/Heritage Rock chart - same with DC101, and the other 20 stations your reliable "source" didn't recognize as Alternative - and BTW it's not just Mediabase - Arbitron also reports all these stations as Alternative

Here are links to the Alternative and Active Rock charts so you can tell the difference...there's almost no overlap between the two formats

http://www.allaccess.com/mediabase/q/report/sevenDay/format/R2/panel/R/detail/C/reportType/R
http://www.allaccess.com/mediabase/q/report/sevenDay/format/R3/panel/R/detail/C/reportType/R

And just so you know, "Rock" is not a format, recognized by either Mediabase or BDS - stations are either Alternative, Triple A, Active Rock, or Mainstream Rock

As far as the numbers you posted about billing and rankings, sorry, but IMO you've completely lost credibility with me
 
atlantaboy said:
I'm glad you think so. In any case, the stations in question don't think they are alternative, and don't use that term.

Really? Let's look at Radio 104.5/Philadelphia's website...

All along I have been discussing the business viability of various rock formats as business models.

The two source I have used are the Arbitron SIP listings...

... every station is supposed to update quarterly their data, including a format description, operating schedule, simulcast hours and partners, if any, streams and HD channel usage. All subscribers can verify that their own listing is accurate and that competitors have fairly selected the right format options and are truly operating as stated.

And the industry's most accurate database....

... http://www.biakelsey.com/Research-and-Forecasts/Media-Access-Pro/ which is the "gold standard" for station data ranging from facilities, staff, contacts, license upgrades, format, ratings, billings, station sales and market data. If you have $10 k rattling around in your pocket, you can buy access, too.

And lol they don't "think they are Alternative"?

There are countless examples of stations that classify for sales one way and which use totally different terms ON THE AIR for promotion.

Many stations use the term "classic hits" in the Aribtron SIP, but continue to use "oldies" on the air as a positioner. This is because "oldies" is anathema to agency buyers, while "classic hits" is a desirable format to buy. Of course, the station has to actually be "classic hits" to keep this name on file at Arbitron.

You have to ask yourself what reason certain stations which, to your criteria, are "alternative" have for using a different term within the industry and for sales.

Their entire playlist is based on the Alternative chart, not the Active/Heritage Rock chart - same with DC101, and the other 20 stations your reliable "source" didn't recognize as Alternative - and BTW it's not just Mediabase - Arbitron also reports all these stations as Alternative

Arbitron does not provide the format descriptors used on the various websites that publish 12+ ratings data... the website does. I looked at the All Access site format descriptors for LA and noted a handful of glaring errors, starting with KTWV being listed as "Smooth Jazz" while the station has listed the format with Aribitron as "Smooth AC" for several years now.

Here are links to the Alternative and Active Rock charts so you can tell the difference...there's almost no overlap between the two formats

That's fine. But keep in mind that within the broadcast industry, and starting with Arbitron, "Active Rock" is a different format from "Alternative" and both are different from "Modern Rock" and so on.

I'm not arguing this point with you. I am just stating the facts of how stations file a quarterly Station Information Profile with Arbitron that includes the station's selection of one of the accepted format types. This is, in many cases, the only format descriptor that agency and transactional buyers ever see.

And just so you know, "Rock" is not a format, recognized by either Mediabase or BDS.

Neither MediaBase nor BDS are part of the buying process, and I doubt there are more than a handful of media buyers who even know what those companies even do. The airplay monitoring services you mention produce charts, so they will often combine similar... yet individually slightly different... stations in a single chart as they need a good base number of stations to make the chart truly reflective of a consensus, reliable and broad enough.

As far as the numbers you posted about billing and rankings, sorry, but IMO you've completely lost credibility with me

I'm sure you are oblivious of what MK is, too.

You are looking from a "music fan" perspective, using fanspeak and record industry terms. Radio is not in the record business, and different terms are used in the business of radio. And 6+ numbers are meaningless and even dangerous.
 
On topic Alternative Rock will work, however at 103.9 it covers some of the city which is nice however it's core will be in NJ (Passaic, Sussex, North Bergen) & LI. For NYC Alternative Rock will be a suburban format much like Hot A/C and Country is as well as AAA (The Peak at 107.1) or Rock (105.5 DHA). 107.1 (NJ & NYC) & 105.5 are a part of the NYC Market as is 98.3 in NJ & 103.9 in NY as well as 106.3 (NJ-Thunder & NY). Fresh 102.7 is somewhat playing rock about half of it is.
 
David, in 2013, Alternative is Alternative, not "Rock" (according to Arbitron, Mediabase, most station websites, and even the ITunes chart) - it's not a matter of opinion - the Alternative chart and Active Rock/Mainstream Rock chart have almost no tracks in common, so the formats do not overlap - you posted that WRFF/Philadelphia doesn't consider itself an Alternative station, and their website is titled "Philadelphia's Alternative"

Radio 104.5/Philly, DC101/Washington, The Buzz/Houston, and all the other stations Arbitron classifies as Alternative are Alternative, period - whatever information you had must have been extremely outdated, or just inaccurate

The original point leading up to all this was that nearly every Top 40 market has an Alternative station, except for NYC (along with Phoenix, Puerto Rico, and a couple others)

If there are loyal Alternative fans in every other market in the country, there are also loyal Alternative fans in New York City - unless you can tell me that Mumford & Sons, Foo Fighters, etc. skipped NYC when they were touring, because there were mysteriously very few Alternative fans in the biggest city in the U. S.
 
atlantaboy said:
you posted that WRFF/Philadelphia doesn't consider itself an Alternative station, and their website is titled "Philadelphia's Alternative"

Again, again, again. We are talking about the business decision to put alternative, in whatever color and flavor might result, on an FM in New York City.

Stations often "brand" for listeners in a different manner than how they self-describe for the industry and for advertisers. Among the stations you mentioned several posts back are stations that play music that is partly or all from the alternative charts but which do not identify themselves to Arbitron or to the industry as "alternative."

I pointed out that many stations that identify in the industry as "classic hits" brand on air as "oldies" where, in fact, they play practically no "oldies" music. But the industry format name is used to identify buying options, while branding is used to promote listenership.

MediaBase, iTunes, etc., are programming and "listener" based. Advertising agencies don't look at them. If they even look at the format of a station on a buy, they look at the definition in the Arbitron "tapes" (another example of a term that does not represent reality but continues to be used) to see what format a station has.

Radio 104.5/Philly, DC101/Washington, The Buzz/Houston, and all the other stations Arbitron classifies as Alternative are Alternative, period - whatever information you had must have been extremely outdated, or just inaccurate

Arbitron does not classify formats. Stations submit their format choice on a form filed each quarter called the SIP. Subscribers can check the format names of competitors, and they can object if they are not correct.

The information I have is the SIP tool on the subscriber website and the full list of all stations that have filled out the SIP in the form of an Excel spreadsheet from Arbitron... dated, er, well, today.

The original point leading up to all this was that nearly every Top 40 market has an Alternative station, except for NYC (along with Phoenix, Puerto Rico, and a couple others)

No, the original point was that there is not a lot of evidence and validation supporting the flip of an existing Class B FM in New York City. The existing formats are committed, and the costs of a flip do not justify blowing up profitable stations.

This point is all the more clear when we see that in some major markets, alternative or alternative-like stations are not doing all that well. Market #4 snaps to mind, but many others like Detroit also prove that it's not an easy format and it does not have guaranteed success.

If there are loyal Alternative fans in every other market in the country, there are also loyal Alternative fans in New York City - unless you can tell me that Mumford & Sons, Foo Fighters, etc. skipped NYC when they were touring, because there were mysteriously very few Alternative fans in the biggest city in the U. S.

The popularity of individual songs and artists, many of which get play on other formats, is hardly the metric used to determine the potential of a format. Generally, a format search involving A-W-T (Awareness, Trial, Usage) would be done... and it would be so proprietary that neither you nor I would know it was done and what the results were.
 
atlantaboy said:
David, in 2013, Alternative is Alternative, not "Rock" (according to Arbitron, Mediabase, most station websites, and even the ITunes chart)

The original point leading up to all this was that nearly every Top 40 market has an Alternative station, except for NYC (along with Phoenix, Puerto Rico, and a couple others)

"They have them" is worth about 10%. "How they're doing" is worth the other 90. And, no, 2+ numbers don't count. It just may be that the NYC market is a little more ahead of the game than others. Nah....that never happens ::)
 
A good example for this conversation is the recently launched radio 105.7 in Atlanta, a city who's demographic makeup isn't overly different then that of New York City, and if anything, New York City has a more robust suburban area to further support such a station--after only a few months on the air, the station is at a 3.3--and the market has a history of under performing rock stations. They have something similar to the format of tradio 104 in Philadelphia, and not to different from the last WRXP.
 
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