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The CW Affiliate Apocalypse of 2016

C

crackedscreen

As some of you are aware, Tribune’s 10-year affiliation deal with The CW expires in approximately 3 years. Tribune is The CW’s major station group artery, with 14 affiliates in top rated markets. (LA, NYC, Chicago, etc.) It’s largely believed that when the time comes, Tribune will choose not to extend the contract with The CW, due to the network’s continued low ratings and Tribune’s ambition of creating more original
and local programming. I have dubbed this forthcoming event as “The CW Affiliate Apocalypse of 2016″, or perhaps more appropriately, the “Tribunemageddon.”

Some think The CW will simply shut down. I believe The CW is too much of a revenue machine for CBS and Warner Bros. properties for the parent corporations to shut down. Naturally, the option would be find new affiliates to the network. Immediately replacing some of the lost top market stations wouldn’t be too hard of a task; CBS owns several independent or MyNetworkTV stations that they probably wouldn’t hesitate to flip and create more CBS-CW duopolies:

New York: WLNY 55

Los Angeles: KCAL 9

Ft.Worth-Dallas: KTXA 21

Miami-Ft. Lauderdale: WBFS 33

Boston: WSBK 38

That being said, do you also believe that Tribune will dump The CW come 2016, and if so, which stations in the Tribune markets without a CBS-owned alternative will best serve as a replacement affiliate for The CW, or will The CW simply become a digital subchannel on those CBS stations?
 
I think there are enough Indies in the larger markets that would step up and take the affilation. However, it will certainly be a blow to the network. I think The CW would be more sucessful if they focused on reality shows. That being said, I wouldnt be shocked if MyNet has higher ratings at this point.
 
I don't see the CW as necessarily a goner. Tribune is hardly the be-all end-all it was in 2006 as the CW got their deals before Sam Zell and Randy Michaels gutted out Tribune. I'd say that securing the affiliations for Sinclair and Nexstar/Mission stations are much more important to keep the network solid, and even if Tribune pulls out there are going to be parts of the chain where the CW can't go anywhere else, like in New Orleans (Belo would love to get it on WUPL, but their reputation of local first is something the CW won't handle), Washington (everyone else is owned by Fox or Univision), Portland (KPDX seems fine with MyNet in late night and their syndicated product in prime), and Hartford.

The big wildcard is stubborn Tribune finally trying to go for ABC affiliation in St. Louis with KPLR or some kind of shuffle-up with KTVI where they'd get ABC back, KPLR gets Fox and Sinclair's KDNL gets the CW affiliation that goes more naturally for them than ABC ever has with them. (The CW and CBS won't even consider WRBU since WB Television is still trying to get syndication money from them).

Tribune has pulled the 'original programming' gambit in the past, even in 2007; all that came out of it was Bob & Tom on the radio and the third-string WWE show

I think MyNetworkTV's survival is more in question. How much longer can they go with procedural repeats as the market begins to dry up? At least the CW always can easily bump to online when the time comes; MyNetworkTV has no brand equity whatsoever any longer.
 
If Tribune does pull out the CW will be fine because CBS will just use its owned stations in various markets. Chicago and Washington are the only wildcard markets.
 
As for tribune bailing out on the CW that is a hard one as when the CW launched, Tribune was ALOT more aggressive in dumping the network, and now they may have soften up as the 2006 tribune is not the 2013 Tribune.

If tribune was to bail unless they were starting their own network service, I do not see them pulling all of the affiliates as they are only worried about Chicago, New York and LA as WGN,WPIX, and KTLA are NEWS stations and most of the rest do one to two hours tops so unless they do their own dramas and sitcoms or partner with someone, I could see them bailing out of the top three and resigning everywhere else.

For CBS to take on the CW in most tribune markets would be no problem except as others have mentioned Washington and Chicago.

With the 1 BILLION dollar netflex deal, THE CW makes CBS and CBS TV distribution, Warner and Warner TV distribution $$MONEY$$ so I somehow see the CW living past 2016 as CBS CEO Les Moonves feels "It essentially makes the CW a profitable enterprise,"

http://paidcontent.org/2012/05/30/how-netflix-really-did-save-the-cw/

http://paidcontent.org/2011/10/13/419-netflix-goes-for-fountain-of-youth-with-full-season-cw-deal/

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2011/10/netflix-cw-deal-cbs-warner-bros.html

I could see the CW become a option to become a .2 network and be offered along side CBS if it came down to it.
 
crackedscreen said:
As some of you are aware, Tribune’s 10-year affiliation deal with The CW expires in approximately 3 years. Tribune is The CW’s major station group artery, with 14 affiliates in top rated markets. (LA, NYC, Chicago, etc.) It’s largely believed that when the time comes, Tribune will choose not to extend the contract with The CW, due to the network’s continued low ratings and Tribune’s ambition of creating more original
and local programming. I have dubbed this forthcoming event as “The CW Affiliate Apocalypse of 2016″, or perhaps more appropriately, the “Tribunemageddon.”

Some think The CW will simply shut down. I believe The CW is too much of a revenue machine for CBS and Warner Bros. properties for the parent corporations to shut down. Naturally, the option would be find new affiliates to the network. Immediately replacing some of the lost top market stations wouldn’t be too hard of a task; CBS owns several independent or MyNetworkTV stations that they probably wouldn’t hesitate to flip and create more CBS-CW duopolies:

New York: WLNY 55

Los Angeles: KCAL 9

Ft.Worth-Dallas: KTXA 21

Miami-Ft. Lauderdale: WBFS 33

Boston: WSBK 38

That being said, do you also believe that Tribune will dump The CW come 2016, and if so, which stations in the Tribune markets without a CBS-owned alternative will best serve as a replacement affiliate for The CW, or will The CW simply become a digital subchannel on those CBS stations?
Click to expand...

here in Los Angeles, KCAL is looked upon as the OTA Free news ch, and for some reason I have a hard time in seeing KCAL 9 News becoming KCAL 9 LA's CW as the 8 and 9 PM news does well for them and they are #1 at 10 PM.

Could CBS and Warner affiliate with LA's other full power full market indie KDOC 56 if KTLA and tribune dumped them as they are becoming more aggressive in adding excursive rights to shows that they do not share with other stations
 
In Chicago, Weigel's WCIU is an option if they're willing to affiliate with a network. If not, they can go with .2 on CBS O&O WBBM.

There's no other option in Washington but .2 on WUSA, if they relocate Bounce TV to .3.
 
CBS and Warners like to talk a good game about the CW doing better than its anemic ratings would suggest because of online, international, and Netflix. Problem is that that doesn't do affiliates any good. If that's what they're in for, they might as well turn it into a subchannel or even cable network.

MyNet's problem isn't the procedurals drying up, it's that it should have lost several affiliates, especially in smaller markets, long ago when it made the "programming service" move. There's no reason why most MyNet affiliates should use the network logo and branding when it doesn't mean anything, or why there should be a full-size, full-power MyNet affiliate in a market without a similar CW affiliate, or why there should be subchannels whose only reason for existence is to bring MyNet into a market.

Both netlets need to figure out what they want to be and what they offer affiliates, especially at a time where broadcast TV itself is going through an identity crisis as the major networks, the standardbearers of broadcast's continued relevance, are threatening to cripple it in response to Aereo. In the case of the CW, what is the purpose of the broadcast network for the larger business model? What reason do you have for supporting broadcast stations throughout the country at a time when many are writing broadcast's obituary, and what sort of support are you giving them?

If they just want to provide a means to fill a couple hours of primetime, that's fine; they can be glorified syndication services. I'm still not sure we need two of them, or maybe even one if programmers aren't so lazy they can't plug in good syndicated programming or news themselves, but regardless, the best thing in that case is probably for Tribune to go ahead with whatever its plans are, and maybe for the two combined to only push for as much original programming as there was in the heyday of original syndicated programming.

But if there are still people at the CW with pretensions of creating a true fifth network following in the footsteps of Fox, which there was a lot of buzz about when the merger happened but which there doesn't seem to have been any sort of effort at all towards since, I don't know that you can do that without the Tribune stations, precisely because they are so strong they don't need you, to the point they may have been stronger than the stations that became Fox affiliates in the 80s, certainly in Chicago. WPHL may not produce its own news, but I can still see it as an affiliate of a fifth network far easier than WPSG, which comes off to me as substantially more of the syndication dumping ground that most CW/MyNet affiliates outside the top ten tend to be. I also don't think you can ignore the CW's anemic ratings; that bleep might fly on cable, but if you're not on broadcast to maximize live viewership, what are you there for?
 
Tribunemageddon is probably a poor name, since Tribune has their TV properties for sale, and probably won't own these stations come 2016.

Plus, this was announced this morning:

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/05/16/apple-tv-to-get-cw-content-in-new-streaming-deal

The good bet is on CW being online only within a couple of years, regardless of what happens to the Tribune stations. They already contend that at least 25% of their viewing is done online and thats only going to grow. Combined that with the announcement that TNT and TBS will start streaming 24/7 and it appears Warner Bros is in it to win it when it comes to the online TV viewing game. A streaming network which targets young people would be a great sister station for CBS as well.

As far as CBS duopoly stations like WLNY and KCAL, a lot was made of them picking up syndicated reruns of both "2 Broke Girls" and "Mike & Molly" so maybe there is something there in terms of transforming these stations, but I still think its a plan B after the online only option.
 
mavtv said:
crackedscreen said:
As some of you are aware, Tribune’s 10-year affiliation deal with The CW expires in approximately 3 years. Tribune is The CW’s major station group artery, with 14 affiliates in top rated markets. (LA, NYC, Chicago, etc.) It’s largely believed that when the time comes, Tribune will choose not to extend the contract with The CW, due to the network’s continued low ratings and Tribune’s ambition of creating more original
and local programming. I have dubbed this forthcoming event as “The CW Affiliate Apocalypse of 2016″, or perhaps more appropriately, the “Tribunemageddon.”

Some think The CW will simply shut down. I believe The CW is too much of a revenue machine for CBS and Warner Bros. properties for the parent corporations to shut down. Naturally, the option would be find new affiliates to the network. Immediately replacing some of the lost top market stations wouldn’t be too hard of a task; CBS owns several independent or MyNetworkTV stations that they probably wouldn’t hesitate to flip and create more CBS-CW duopolies:

New York: WLNY 55

Los Angeles: KCAL 9

Ft.Worth-Dallas: KTXA 21

Miami-Ft. Lauderdale: WBFS 33

Boston: WSBK 38

That being said, do you also believe that Tribune will dump The CW come 2016, and if so, which stations in the Tribune markets without a CBS-owned alternative will best serve as a replacement affiliate for The CW, or will The CW simply become a digital subchannel on those CBS stations?
Click to expand...

here in Los Angeles, KCAL is looked upon as the OTA Free news ch, and for some reason I have a hard time in seeing KCAL 9 News becoming KCAL 9 LA's CW as the 8 and 9 PM news does well for them and they are #1 at 10 PM.

Could CBS and Warner affiliate with LA's other full power full market indie KDOC 56 if KTLA and tribune dumped them as they are becoming more aggressive in adding excursive rights to shows that they do not share with other stations
Click to expand...

Doubtful, CBS is the controlling partner of the CW arrangement thus they will move it to WLNY and KCAL prior to other stations.
 
crackedscreen said:
In Chicago, Weigel's WCIU is an option if they're willing to affiliate with a network. If not, they can go with .2 on CBS O&O WBBM.
Click to expand...

CBS has been testing local news channels on its .2 subs in New York and Philadelphia at least, and is looking to do the same for all its CBS O&Os. The only markets where CBS has only an O&O and Tribune has a CW affiliate are Chicago and Denver. Respectively, WBBM-TV and KCNC-TV could add CW on .3 if Tribune (WGN-TV and KWGN-TV) bails on the network.

crackedscreen said:
There's no other option in Washington but .2 on WUSA, if they relocate Bounce TV to .3.
Click to expand...

Washington could be interesting because WJLA-TV is on the block and word on the street has CBS as an interested party, though my understanding is that Allbritton wants to sell its stations as a group. Just wanted that nugget put out there.
 
Yes, I could see a scenario where CBS and Warner Brothers shut The CW down, with the two or three most popular CW programs moving to CBS.

If some, many, or all of the Tribune-owned CW affiliates decide to dump The CW come 2016, that may force CBS and Warners to reassess The CW's future.

On the other hand, if The CW has a disastrous 2013/2014 season, and loses lots of money, could it's owners afford to wait until the Tribune affiliation agreements expire to determine whether or not to continue with the network??
 
Joseph_Gallant said:
Yes, I could see a scenario where CBS and Warner Brothers shut The CW down, with the two or three most popular CW programs moving to CBS.

If some, many, or all of the Tribune-owned CW affiliates decide to dump The CW come 2016, that may force CBS and Warners to reassess The CW's future.

On the other hand, if The CW has a disastrous 2013/2014 season, and loses lots of money, could it's owners afford to wait until the Tribune affiliation agreements expire to determine whether or not to continue with the network??
Click to expand...

Thanks to the netflix deal, the CW is basically profitable until 2015 according to the heads of Warners and CBS.

In honestly I see the CW living past 2016 as unless CBS has a solid plan for its CW O&O's, Time Warner wants out of being a part owner of a broadcast network, and they cannot find replacement stations in Chicago and Washington the CW will be around.
 
mavtv said:
Joseph_Gallant said:
Yes, I could see a scenario where CBS and Warner Brothers shut The CW down, with the two or three most popular CW programs moving to CBS.

If some, many, or all of the Tribune-owned CW affiliates decide to dump The CW come 2016, that may force CBS and Warners to reassess The CW's future.

On the other hand, if The CW has a disastrous 2013/2014 season, and loses lots of money, could it's owners afford to wait until the Tribune affiliation agreements expire to determine whether or not to continue with the network??
Click to expand...

Thanks to the netflix deal, the CW is basically profitable until 2015 according to the heads of Warners and CBS.

In honestly I see the CW living past 2016 as unless CBS has a solid plan for its CW O&O's, Time Warner wants out of being a part owner of a broadcast network, and they cannot find replacement stations in Chicago and Washington the CW will be around.
Click to expand...
Honestly, CBS could become a part-owner of MyNet. Because MyNet was the result of Fox's ownership of UPN stations, New York, Los Angeles and Dallas are the only markets where they overlap. Compare that to CBS/Tribune overlaps, which I believe numbered six at the time of the merger, and the loss of several markets has been partly outweighed by the purchase of WLNY. Alternately, they could start their own version of MyNet if they buy WCIU or something.

If TimeWarner doesn't want any part of the CW, that might be the likeliest outcome regardless of how CBS might otherwise be feeling. Yet it may also be what happens if they go the opposite way and attempt to reconstitute the WB with the Tribune stations and without CBS' "help".

Problem in Washington is that the stations are very constrained because of Baltimore's stations.

Personally, I wouldn't mind if the FCC restricted duopolies in such a way as to force CBS and Fox to sell some of them, but that might be a pipe dream.
 
Tribune won't ditch The CW. Strong ratings or not, it is the best network available to them at this time. Reruns of old shows won't be any more successful for prime-time viewing. Plus it would be harder to sell stations without a network to cable companies.
 
Casey said:
Tribune won't ditch The CW. Strong ratings or not, it is the best network available to them at this time. Reruns of old shows won't be any more successful for prime-time viewing. Plus it would be harder to sell stations without a network to cable companies.
Click to expand...
Unless Tribune wants to get into running a network with original programming themselves or sell the stations to someone who will.
 
mavtv said:
I could see the CW become a option to become a .2 network and be offered along side CBS if it came down to it.
Click to expand...

And on the non-O&O side, there are CBS affiliates currently running networks/programming services that are even lower on the terrestrial food chain than The CW. As long as there isn't some revolution in local cable carriage fees or a market-dropping amount of nationwide cord-cutting, the Arrow network could/would find space somewhere else.
 
The Tribune is too weak now to do much. In Chicago there is always WJYS Channel 62. The independent station runs religious shows and brokers infomercials. If the CW wanted they could simply buy time on WJYS and show their shows there.

An odd situation but do-able in Chicago. WGN really is a shadow of its former self since it joined the WB.
 
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