The Inventor Didn't Plan On This...

[pocket-radio]

I've listened to the on going HD debate both pro & con. And each side has their valid points.

Here's what I can't figure out. While HD promises so many great benefits, the fact is any gains in HD listening will have to directly come from AM/FM listening. I mean, unless more people all of a sudden start listening to radio, how else will HD gain market share? it's impossible! It's like 90 new stores just opened up on main street and the population hasn't increased to support this influx of new stores. Plus these new merchants will be challenged to market merchandise already found on the rack down the street.
The FCC needs to learn how to say no...

It's unlikely listeners 12-24 will suddenly return to radio because of HD. This generation's time and interests are elsewhere.

Digital and analog living side by side creates more unforeseen challenges. Media buyers won’t purchase HD stations that don’t show, or are last in ratings? Depending on the market, they’ll go 3 or 5 deep and let the bottom feeders get scraps. Broadcasters have their hands full cluster selling and maximizing revenues. The last thing they need is more inventory left unsold. I get the added value argument. But in my mind added value is free and drives your average rate down, not up. And only trains advertisers to expect free.

Nothing matters in this world but ratings and revenues and HD has a huge mountain to climb. Plus, we all know the impact on ratings by gaining or losing just a handful of diaries. I mean it can make or break a book.

In addition, I’m not certain applying the old rules will work in a digital radio world. At least not the one we’ve created where digital and analog will survive side by side for the foreseeable future.

Where analog pd’s shoot for mass impact, HD pd’s might shoot for tribes where stations have smaller but loyal fans. And so the challenge becomes selling HD tribes under the old rules…

One thing is certain the rules of the road have yet to written, something perhaps the inventor and buyers didn’t plan on....

 

[TheBigA]

the fact is any gains in HD listening will have to directly come from AM/FM listening.

The goal was for HD to have formats that were not on AM or FM. So no, that's not correct. At the time HD was introduced, satellite was offering more stations than were typically available on AM & FM combined. Listeners were being attracted to formats not available on their local AM & FM stations. HD sought to offer some additional channels and formats.

The FCC needs to learn how to say no...

Great advice, but in addition to HD, the FCC also wants to expand LPFM. Guess where those listeners will come from.

 

[clouseau]

I've listened to the on going HD debate both pro & con. And each side has their valid points.

Here's what I can't figure out. While HD promises so many great benefits, the fact is any gains in HD listening will have to directly come from AM/FM listening. I mean, unless more people all of a sudden start listening to radio, how else will HD gain market share? it's impossible! It's like 90 new stores just opened up on main street and the population hasn't increased to support this influx of new stores. Plus these new merchants will be challenged to market merchandise already found on the rack down the street.
The FCC needs to learn how to say no...

You bring up a very valid point. but here's how it reads from the other side.

SHOUD THE FCC BE ALLOWED TO RESTRICT FREE RADIO CHANNELS, WHEN SATRAD GETS AS MANY AS THEY WANT?

What you're suggesting is an artificial scarcity of radio stations based on an arbitrary adminstrative decision.

HOW MANY IS TOO MANY?

Do you believe as I do that the FCC's job is not to assure the profitability of radio stations.

It's a slippery slope. Imagine if every person in the country had their own radio station. "In Theory" no station would have more than one listener. That assumption is wrong because people in radio know the vast number of listeners don't want to program radio, they want to be entertained. Press "ON" and be entertained. Press "OFF" and do somethig else. Back on topic...

I believe the "TRUE" question you are posing is...

"DOES THE FCC HAVE A RESPONSIBILITY TO EXISTING LICENSEES TO PROTECT THEM FROM NEW "IN SERVICE" OR "OUT OF SERVICE" COMPETITION?"

As a licensee, it pains me to answer the question honestly, because IMHO, the answer is "NO". (Which means I'm on the chopping block)

If I Apply before you shouldn' make me special. Within reasonable technical specifications, EVERYONE ought to be able to broadcast. Does this create a problem for existing broadcasters? YOU BET. Does it seem "FAIR" to you? Hmmmmm...

It's unlikely listeners 12-24 will suddenly return to radio because of HD. This generation's time and interests are elsewhere.

12-24 maybe. I can't argue with that. But as they enter adulthood, the pressures and responsibilities are going to consume more and more of their time. 30 years ago, in my daily driver car I had...

AM, FM stereo, Cassette, and CB. In my bedroom I had all of the above, plus 8 Track, and records. Back then we called it 33, 45 and 78. (Under 30? Check Wikipedia)

I had several hundred 45's. (My "not so portable" I-Pod)

Now? Frankly I can't be bothered screwing with an Ipod for hours on end. Or those 45's. I have 5000+ mp3's on my computer. Best Jukebox in town at a party.

But frankly I usually just listen to the radio. And punch buttons when commercials some on. Just like most other radio listeners. Many have stated that ALL radio is dead. I do not agree.

Clearly "Life pattenrs" are changing for everyone, especially youth. However as the amount of time you spend maintaining your I-pod goes down, it's quality of programming does also. Teenage girls buy records (or now MP3s) Does a mother of 2 children? Radio is always free and easy. That's why it will survive . Along with localism.

Digital and analog living side by side creates more unforeseen challenges. Media buyers won’t purchase HD stations that don’t show, or are last in ratings?

Agreed, they won't buy ANY stations that don't show or are last.

Depending on the market, they’ll go 3 or 5 deep and let the bottom feeders get scraps. Broadcasters have their hands full cluster selling and maximizing revenues. The last thing they need is more inventory left unsold. I get the added value argument. But in my mind added value is free and drives your average rate down, not up. And only trains advertisers to expect free.

Fair enough. You make a great point. HOWEVER... look at it from the other side. I don't know your market, but where ever it is, it has a finite number of analog formats available. If a listener prefers a format that does not appear in that market, they don't usually settle for what's there. They go elsewhere to seek it out. Often times where it's harder to get. Or of lower quality. A great example is MY Network TV in my town Corpus Christi. It's on low power 21. Doesn't come close to equalling HD radio coverage in the market. It's on cable, but received by the cable co off the air. Often times has hash or bad reception. People who want to see the WWE don't go online to find it. They watch KTOV. They're saving viewers for TV. In radio it's even more defined. If you want smooth Jazz and radio doesn't provide it, you'll go to SatRad or the internet. You ain't settling for the best of Wham!.

So while it divides the pie, it also INCREASES the pie. That's why "Big Radio" doesn't necessarily want fewer CHANNELS. they want fewer OWNERS.

Nothing matters in this world but ratings and revenues and HD has a huge mountain to climb. Plus, we all know the impact on ratings by gaining or losing just a handful of diaries. I mean it can make or break a book.

How true THAT is.

In addition, I’m not certain applying the old rules will work in a digital radio world. At least not the one we’ve created where digital and analog will survive side by side for the foreseeable future.

It's just more competition. PD's have been dealing with this since ever...

Where analog pd’s shoot for mass impact, HD pd’s might shoot for tribes where stations have smaller but loyal fans. And so the challenge becomes selling HD tribes under the old rules…

I'd love to hear you expand on this, based on the fact that this old dog doesn't really get "Tribes".

If you're talking "Niche", that's been around for a while. If you're saying "Life was easier when we went after everybody" I agree. I did Jammin Oldies for a couple of years and it' was murder. Especially when my ownership thinks it's classic hits. Bad Memory...

One thing is certain the rules of the road have yet to written, something perhaps the inventor and buyers didn’t plan on....

Ain't that the truth. I think this was expected. But I'm not so sure the new programming philosophy was "PERFECTED" before it launched. Of course it took a few decades to migrate radio to music, so I guess I'm not surprised. We'll see.

Clouseau

 

[KB1OKL]

I've listened to the on going HD debate both pro & con. And each side has their valid points.

Here's what I can't figure out. While HD promises so many great benefits, the fact is any gains in HD listening will have to directly come from AM/FM listening. I mean, unless more people all of a sudden start listening to radio, how else will HD gain market share? it's impossible! It's like 90 new stores just opened up on main street and the population hasn't increased to support this influx of new stores. Plus these new merchants will be challenged to market merchandise already found on the rack down the street.
The FCC needs to learn how to say no...

It's unlikely listeners 12-24 will suddenly return to radio because of HD. This generation's time and interests are elsewhere.

Digital and analog living side by side creates more unforeseen challenges. Media buyers won’t purchase HD stations that don’t show, or are last in ratings? Depending on the market, they’ll go 3 or 5 deep and let the bottom feeders get scraps. Broadcasters have their hands full cluster selling and maximizing revenues. The last thing they need is more inventory left unsold. I get the added value argument. But in my mind added value is free and drives your average rate down, not up. And only trains advertisers to expect free.

Nothing matters in this world but ratings and revenues and HD has a huge mountain to climb. Plus, we all know the impact on ratings by gaining or losing just a handful of diaries. I mean it can make or break a book.

In addition, I’m not certain applying the old rules will work in a digital radio world. At least not the one we’ve created where digital and analog will survive side by side for the foreseeable future.

Where analog pd’s shoot for mass impact, HD pd’s might shoot for tribes where stations have smaller but loyal fans. And so the challenge becomes selling HD tribes under the old rules…

One thing is certain the rules of the road have yet to written, something perhaps the inventor and buyers didn’t plan on....

All of these are reasons iBOC has failed. The inventors planned on this becoming the next new big thing obviously thinking they could get away with a half baked scheme that doesn't work as they glossed over so many details such as stomping all over your neighbors on the dial, lousy range, mediocre sound etc. Luckily the consumers aren't as stupid as the FCC and the inventors are and were. It purports the fix a problem that was never there. This FCC didn't say no to anything that could maybe make money for large corporations. If it had succeeded we would have all had to buy new radios for a system that doesn't work nearly as well as the one it would have replaced, big bucks for Sony, thankfully it didn't happen. There is absolutely no reason for radio to become digital. The fact that LP sales are increasing and CD sales are decreasing speaks volumes about analog vs digital.

 

[TheBigA]

This FCC didn't say no to anything that could maybe make money for large corporations.

And yet they also approved LPFM, against the opposition of the NAB and large broadcasting corporations. And they approved the whole HDTV thing, even though it cost local broadcasters millions.

If it had succeeded we would have all had to buy new radios for a system that doesn't work nearly as well as the one it would have replaced,

Not true. It was never mandated.

The fact that LP sales are increasing and CD sales are decreasing speaks volumes about analog vs digital.

Oh please! The increase in LP sales is infinitesimal compared to the loss of CD sales. And it's restricted to a handful of specialty LP releases, not full catalogue. There is only one vinyl pressing plant left in the US, so we won't be seeing a return to LPs any time soon.

 

[KB1OKL]

And yet they also approved LPFM, against the opposition of the NAB and large broadcasting corporations. And they approved the whole HDTV thing, even though it cost local broadcasters millions.

And will make TV manufacturers billions

If it had succeeded we would have all had to buy new radios for a system that doesn't work nearly as well as the one it would have replaced,

Not true. It was never mandated.

No thank God, but if it had succeeded you bet you a## it would have been mandated at some point but that's moot now

The fact that LP sales are increasing and CD sales are decreasing speaks volumes about analog vs digital.

Oh please! The increase in LP sales is infinitesimal compared to the loss of CD sales. And it's restricted to a handful of specialty LP releases, not full catalogue. There is only one vinyl pressing plant left in the US, so we won't be seeing a return to LPs any time soon.

You're missing and minimizing the point the point as usual, people prefer the sound of analog over digital which is the reason people are seeking out turntables and buying LP's which are still not the easiest thing in the world to find. You have to work at buying and playing LP's and their sales are still growing which proves that if consumers want something they will go out of their way to seek it out and if they dislike something or just couldn't care less about an item, they will kind of ahem.. ignore it no matter how hard industry tries to shove it down their throats, sound familiar?.
[/quote]

 

[TheBigA]

And will make TV manufacturers billions

Not exactly. Not unless you choose to buy a new TV. And from what I've seen, TV manufacturers are not profiting from this. In fact, after the collapse of HDTV prices last fall, they're losing money and laying off workers.

You're missing and minimizing the point the point as usual, people prefer the sound of analog over digital which is the reason people are seeking out turntables and buying LP's

A very small minority of people. The same ones who prefer tubes over transistors.

no matter how hard industry tries to shove it down their throats, sound familiar?.

[/quote]

No one is shoving anything down anyone's throats. You can buy their products, or not. Microsoft is doing more to force you to use Windows and Vista than any of these companies are doing to force you to use HD TV or radio. And I bet you've got Windows in the computer you're using right now.

 

[Savage]

Big A: typically, your point eludes me. In answer to the proposition, HD will fragment existing (analog) audiences for radio, you declare that the idea was to offer formats that weren't available on AM or FM.

First of all, that's just another HD promise has never been realized.

 

[TheBigA]

Big A: typically, your point eludes me. In answer to the proposition, HD will fragment existing (analog) audiences for radio, you declare that the idea was to offer formats that weren't available on AM or FM.

First of all, that's just another HD promise has never been realized.

Depends on the station. We've been down this road before. I've given lots of examples. You poo-poo them.

 

[Savage]

@@##!!xx Did the auto-post thing again before I was finished. Anyway:

Many, if not most, of the available HD channels are varieties of the programming available on the main channel, offering differences which are often so subtle as to elude many listeners. It's a frequent criticism of HD.

And in any event - irrespective of the programming merits - you ducked the question: where is the audience going to come from? Are you arguing that the existing listener base will simply increase their TSL so the same listeners will listen to MORE radio, including the HD subs? Or are you forecasting that HD will attract a vast new audience - one which could be spread across three channels (main plus 2 subs) without diluting existing cume?

Anticipating possible "yes" answers to the above propositions, I would argue: number one is highly unlikely. And number two is even LESS likely. Witness what's going on in the industry. Actually, I would further argue: fragmenting the existing audience with HD choices is precisely the OPPOSITE of what radio needs right now. If you buy the widespread perception that "radio is in trouble," what sane businesspeople do in a scary environment is "get back to basics." Excel at your core business. Get the wagons in a circle and pull together as a team.

As opposed to the HD approach, which is: scatter resources, pursue highly theoretical and unlikely new concepts, and fight among ourselves over interference problems.

Far from assuring a secure future for radio, HD actually is one of the industry's biggest threats, IMO.

 

[TheBigA]

you ducked the question: where is the audience going to come from?

Depends on the person. I know a lot of people who hate modern country music. To them, country music is George Jones and Waylon Jennings. In most markets, their choice for that is either satellite or HD.

Look...the story of media in the 21st century is lots of choices diluting the audience base. That isn't going to change, regardless of the future (or lack of it) of HD Radio. The audience will be spread to other media, whether it's the internet, satellite, or something that hasn't been invented yet. The game for broadcasters is to aggregate audience. (not aggravate)

The question is how broadcasters view themselves: As owners of towers & transmitters, or as content providers. If it's about content, then the medium doesn't matter.

I would further argue: fragmenting the existing audience with HD choices is precisely the OPPOSITE of what radio needs right now.

I agree, but guess what: It doesn't matter what you or I think. The public wants what it wants and they don't care if it's good for radio or not.

Excel at your core business. Get the wagons in a circle and pull together as a team.

Fine. When will WYSL start playing George Jones?

 

[Savage]

I get it, Big A! The "audience will be spread to other media?" "Aggregate audience" by internally fragmenting it?

"Holy moley, they're shooting at us! Quick, let's put a bullet in our OWN brain before somebody beats us to it!" Makes perfect sense.... :

"When will WYSL start playing George Jones?" It's the trifecta! Absurd, irrelevant and gratuitously insulting. All in one convenient post.

 

[TheBigA]

I get it, Big A! The "audience will be spread to other media?" "Aggregate audience" by internally fragmenting it?

Just some of the contradictions of running a radio station.

Look, if you were so concerned about fragmenting the audience, why did you put conservative talk on WYSL? It's not like that format isn't available elsewhere it town. You're just as much of an audience fragmenter as the HD folks. Except you don't cause interference.

As I said, there is nothing you or I can do to stop audience fragmentation. The best thing you can do is try to grab as big a piece of it as you can. If that means you use a multiple media approach, then that's what it means. If you make enough money using one single AM station, and you don't need anything else to meet your obligations, then keep doing what you're doing.

 

[Savage]

Oh, and I forgot (sorry I'm "fragmenting my audience" among successive posts. Just a little technique I learned from HD Radio.)

It may be very well true that the audience wants what it wants, and doesn't care whether it's good for radio or not.

And guess what? Thus far, the audience has voted with its feet when it comes to HD Radio. Generally, they're unaware. And among the few who are aware, they don't care. That's why receiver sales are somewhere south of "laughable."

Increasing the digital to -10dBc is akin to increasing the variety of rotten food on the menu in a mostly-empty restaurant. The lonely retching will just get louder.

 

[Savage]

Excuse me, BigA. This isn't the WYSL board. This is the HD Radio board. I'm not discussing my station or defending it here. (Other than to agree that we don't cause interference, a claim HD-AM stations generally can't make.)

Just curious. Have you ever run an actual radio station? Programmed one? Actually been inside one?

 

[TheBigA]

And guess what? Thus far, the audience has voted with its feet when it comes to HD Radio.

Fine. You win.

That doesn't mean the audience isn't going someplace else to get what they want. It just means they're going someplace else not owned by you or other radio owners. You can win the battle and lose the war. Right now, radio is losing the war.

Just curious. Have you ever run an actual radio station? Programmed one? Actually been inside one?

Every day of the week. For 35 years. Thanks for asking.

Some of it spent in Central New York State. Go Orange.

 

[Savage]

Well, jeepers, thanks for the tardy admission that HD Radio isn't the fix for whatever problems the radio industry has. Now at least we're making some headway.

Last I checked, there is a thing called HD Radio. It's been around since 2002. And, according to you and just about every other sentient person, it's not having any effect on the erosion of radio's audience. HD or no, they're getting audio entertainment from other sources. We could debate other non-HD, non-technical potential fixes, but that's not what this thread or this board is about.

My point is: HD is depleting increasingly scarce resources from other activities, like "programming on the main channel," which would be far more likely to retain and/or win back audience. Also, if "not many" represents the number of non-Alliance stations with fiscal wherewithal to install HD a couple of years ago, "almost none" would probably accurately assess those likely to do so today. Especially given the proposed -10dBc which will require extensive rebuilds, in some cases even new towers. And we don't even need to discuss the ludicrous train-wreck known as "AM-HD."

Toss the likely increase in FM adjacent and self-interference and there you have it: The gun the radio industry has put squarely in its own mouth.

I'm just trying to stay out of the spray pattern and invite my colleagues to do the same.

 

[TheBigA]

Well, jeepers, thanks for the tardy admission that HD Radio isn't the fix for whatever problems the radio industry has.

I don't think I ever said it is. Contrary to what opinion others force on me.

My point is: HD is depleting increasingly scarce resources from other activities, like "programming on the main channel," which would be far more likely to retain and/or win back audience.

That's where we differ. As long as you have conservative talk on your station, there's nothing you can do to win me over. No amount of money you can spend, no resources you can dedicate. It will just never happen. Now if you aired Syracuse Basketball, you might have a chance. Put it on your HD-2. Whoops!

 

[Savage]

Again, I salute you for your candor and your directness. At least we now know what the agenda is. A little clarity goes a long way.

Much in the same way this board isn't about WYSL and its programming, this board isn't about politics. Or our political convictions.

Syracuse Basketball, unfortunately, is not available since it's been tied up on a major group station in Rochester for years. We do just fine with the U of R, St. John Fisher, Roberts Wesleyan, Nazareth, and the SUNY schools, though, thanks.

If SU did become suddenly available, we'd program it on the MAIN channel. You know: where it would actually be heard. ("Whoops" is right! You must have just gotten the word that HD-AM doesn't have HD-2 subchannels. SURE you've been in a radio station every day for 35 years?)

 

[TheBigA]

Much in the same way this board isn't about WYSL and its programming, this board isn't about politics. Or our political convictions.

It's not about politics, it's about programming. The audience isn't monochromatic. They prove it every day.

("Whoops" is right! You must have just gotten the word that HD-AM doesn't have HD-2 subchannels. SURE you've been in a radio station every day for 35 years?)

That's just my sick sense of humor. I know all about your views on that issue. God, those Orangemen are killing me. Losing to Louisville! Oh well, there goes the Top 10 ranking. When was the last time Ithica in the Top 10? As I said, I have a sick sense of humor. Say hi to Ed Levine for me. We went to college together.

Oh yeah, I had a week off in 1983. Forgot about that.