Well Here it is!

[Savage]

I figured I'd let the gloat-a-thon from HD's four friends on this board rattle on for a while. Who am I to deny you your inevitable "victory?" Enjoy, RF, Gleason, and....hmm. I can't think of any more.

In any event: of COURSE the FCC approved the digital power increase. Nobody doubts for a second that the Commission, for various stupid reasons, is in the tank for HD. FWIW I've been predicting this would happen for over a year.

"Let's turn back the hands of time.....of time.....of time......" (Ampex slapback echooooo......)

I also said in 2007 that the number of AMs operating in HD would never exceed 300. The verified number is now about 270, down from a high about a year ago of 290, out of 4700 authorized AMs (the majority of these are HD only in the daytime or are on graveyard channels.) The number of FMs in HD has been stuck at about 15% of operating FM stations for more than a year. Blab all you want about how those signals "reach" (whatever that means) 90% of the US radio listening audience, it's still not enough to guarantee a successful launch of HD.

So, looking forward:

Wake me up in a year and tell me how many FMs have actually implemented increased HD digital power. I'll bet it's fewer than 40 stations, and most of those will have jumped maybe 3 dB. The vast majority will again be Alliance "show-horse" stations and NPRs whose installations will be paid for by government grants.

In a year the trades and boards will be rumbling with field reports about how digital coverage post-increase is still "disappointing." Receivers will still be common as hen's teeth, and iBiquity will be crowing about new milestones on the automotive-receiver front like how HD is now "standard-available packaged audio options" in Skoda, Oltcit and Excalibur Replicars.

In other words: I predict the same malaise in HD-land in early 2011.

Remember all the gloating and the countdown to 24-hour operation for IBOC-AM in September 2007?

Be careful how you gloat, HD fans.....

 

[TheBigA]

But it is germane. This thing is on life support only because so many bigwigs in commercial and public radio – and in the FCC – have invested their money, their personal prestige or both in it. And they aren’t disposed to brook any criticism of it from their employees, no matter how cogent.

So you're saying the reason the FCC approved this is because they are personally invested in this? Or they were bribed? Once again, if someone doesn't agree with you, they must be either stupid, afraid, or bribed. And then you say THEY deal in group-think?

Look...as I've said before, the amount of money commercial broadcasters have "invested" is so small that it doesn't matter. They have much more invested in other issues. Commercial broadcasters are heavily criticized by outsiders for their lack of investment in new technologies, and HD radio is just one of those areas. So the idea that commercial broadcasters are forcing this on the public because of their own investment is simply wrong. They haven't invested money, people, or time in this, especially over the last three years. If it went away tomorrow, no one in commercial radio would shed a tear. It’s not part of anyone’s agenda, so that statement is complete hogwash.

And while I don’t know the whole story in New Jersey (though I know that the state in a financial crisis),

Well I DO know the situation in NJ, and the reason they haven’t invested in HD is because they also haven’t really invested in much of anything related to radio. New Jersey Public Broadcasting is mainly four TV stations. Radio was an afterthought.

My point, which you ignored, is they have CHOICE. They can do what they want. There is no group-think in public broadcasting. They can carry shows from a range of places, not just NPR. They’re not being forced to use HD radio by NPR or CPB. They can invest in new technologies. Or they can do absolutely nothing. Which is what the stations in NJ have done. So once again, this charge of group-think is wrong.

You hate HD radio so much that you’ve convinced yourself into a whole pack of crap that is simply not there. It reminds me of Bush’s WMD rational for invading Iraq. Then he gets there, and whoops…no WMD. Same thing here. There is no conspiracy. The only place there's group-think is among the corporate haters.

 

[Carmine5]

All I can say is that I'm glad that this finally happened, and that the FCC is going about it with some precautions as far as interference complaints.

Now maybe FM HD will get some better traction for those of us not directly beneath the transmitter antennas....

Unless CE and car manufacturers suddenly decide to put HDR in EVERYTHING, and I mean literally everything they make so that consumers have no choice but to buy it, HD Radio will remain a niche product.

Consider DAB radio. The most successful implementation of it is in Great Britain. Because it's on a different band, listeners there can enjoy strong, dropout-free reception. And yet only 3% of UK households have digital radio and reports are that sales in DAB radios have flat-lined (while web radio listening continues to grow). A few stations have pulled the plug on it. I think we can find a parallel here.

I believe that FM stations that broadcast in HD Radio will continue to do so for years to come while we will see a slow retreat for HD AM.

But without stronger support from CE manufacturers, I see only modest HDR growth for FM with an eventual plateau. On the other hand, web radio listening in the US will continue to trend upward regardless of the fate of HDR.

c5

 

[TheBigA]

Unless CE and car manufacturers suddenly decide to put HDR in EVERYTHING, and I mean literally everything they make so that consumers have no choice but to buy it, HD Radio will remain a niche product.

Those days are over. You can thank satellite radio for that. The deals they made with car makers are the blueprints now. If you invent a new radio and want to get on car dashboards, you need to negotiate with car companies and give them something. There will be no federal mandate for car radio installation. I think the next step is cars being made WITHOUT the traditional AM/FM radio. Or eliminating AM from the dash. And there is no company that will champion traditional radio's placement in the dash if that happens.

The lack of HD Radio sales is nothing to gloat about, because below those bad sales figures is the reality that most people simply are not buying radios any more. They buy things WITH radios. Cars with radios, computers with radios, phones with radios, or mp3s with radios. That's it. Everything else is a niche product. All those expensive table radios? Niche products. Bose Wave? Niche product. The battle now is for getting placement in other products, and those who own traditional AM & FM stations better pray that their bands are included on every cool new device being built. Or we could see AM/FM becoming a niche product.

 

[BRNout]

Unless CE and car manufacturers suddenly decide to put HDR in EVERYTHING, and I mean literally everything they make so that consumers have no choice but to buy it, HD Radio will remain a niche product.

Those days are over. You can thank satellite radio for that. The deals they made with car makers are the blueprints now. If you invent a new radio and want to get on car dashboards, you need to negotiate with car companies and give them something. There will be no federal mandate for car radio installation. I think the next step is cars being made WITHOUT the traditional AM/FM radio. Or eliminating AM from the dash. And there is no company that will champion traditional radio's placement in the dash if that happens.

The lack of HD Radio sales is nothing to gloat about, because below those bad sales figures is the reality that most people simply are not buying radios any more. They buy things WITH radios. Cars with radios, computers with radios, phones with radios, or mp3s with radios. That's it. Everything else is a niche product. All those expensive table radios? Niche products. Bose Wave? Niche product. The battle now is for getting placement in other products, and those who own traditional AM & FM stations better pray that their bands are included on every cool new device being built. Or we could see AM/FM becoming a niche product.

Here, you are speculating and you're wrong. The HD alliance is feverishly working to try to get HD radio sets into cars. It's basically life or death for them because so much listening goes on in the car. Put it in there and people will start to use the technology; leave it out and most won't bother. As it stands now, most HD radio offerings from auto manufacturers have been highly limited. We'll see if, in the next 4 or 5 years, HD becomes standard equipment in most new cars. If so, then HD may actually gain a foothold. However, if current trends continue, it will pass just as AM stereo did. And that was standard equipment in quite a few cars at one time - including many Chryslers.

As for your comment about the trend being toward NO radios in cars, that's simply not so. Radios are always there, just now they are frequently mixed in a multi-platform entertainment/information system where radio is de-emphasized somewhat as other alternative mediums are also offered in parallel. Fewer new cars sell without radios now than at any time in the past, just as fewer cars without a/c sell now than at any time in the past.

Unless HD becomes standard equipment in most cars, it's going nowhere.

Also, on a side note, I may have been mistaken in my statement about royalty payments - I wasn't in that part of the business. However, what I also know is that you can't program music for free and you have to track what you pay for that reason. Even if it's 0.09 cents per play, that's still more money than these HD subs are taking in via advertising. It's not free - I am dead certain of that.

It costs money to put ANYTHING on the air and when you can't sell ads to pay for it, you lose money and go out of business. Unless you truly believe that all that HD buzz in the air and the digitized HD signals don't cost anything. That's what your earlier argument with me seems to imply.

 

[TheBigA]

The HD alliance is feverishly working to try to get HD radio sets into cars.

That's an oxymoron. The HD Alliance "feverishly working" on something is like the FCC "feverishly working" on addressing interference complaints. But yes, it is life and death for them. But not for anyone else. The ONLY way HD Radio becomes standard equipment is either through mandate or revenue share. And neither is likely.

As for your comment about the trend being toward NO radios in cars, that's simply not so.

You misunderstand what I said. I didn't say there's a trend towards no radios, but towards paying for placement on the dashboard. At some point, there will be so many paid platforms that they will crowd out AM/FM. Unless it's required, I can imagine a suit somewhere saying "Why is this still here?"

 

[davideduardo]

The HD alliance is feverishly working to try to get HD radio sets into cars. It's basically life or death for them because so much listening goes on in the car.

A third or less of listening takes place in the car, even less in markets like New York.

We'll see if, in the next 4 or 5 years, HD becomes standard equipment in most new cars. If so, then HD may actually gain a foothold.

The average age of a car in the US is around 9 years now, and it is increasing due to the economic situation. That means it would take nearly a decade to get to 50% penetration in cars if every car came with HD. It would take nearly 20 years to get the penetration of AM and FM.

Also, on a side note, I may have been mistaken in my statement about royalty payments - I wasn't in that part of the business. However, what I also know is that you can't program music for free and you have to track what you pay for that reason. Even if it's 0.09 cents per play, that's still more money than these HD subs are taking in via advertising. It's not free - I am dead certain of that.

No, you don't have to track everything that you play. Two of the organizations do electronic monitoring, and one asks for a log at random about once a year, and most stations just submit their Selector or MusicMaster output. The fees are based on a complex metric based on market and station size (they used to be a percentage of adjusted revenue). The HD channels that have no revenue yet pay a very minimal fee, or are part of the base terrestrial licence.

 

[Channel Surf]

I wonder how many people, in its first 20 years or so of service said of FM, "No one's buying it. We should just get rid of it!". Where would radio be now if that had happened?

Except that when I discovered FM radio in 1966 at the age of 11, (WRKO-FM-Boston, to be specific) it was clearly a superior technology over all the than successful AM stations that I had listened too for the past three years or so. While I continued to listen heavily to AM radio through about 1973, it was always secondary after my early FM "coversion". I have yet to really find any redeeming quality in HD. By the way...this is my very first posting on this "contraversial" topic....

 

[BRNout]

A third or less of listening takes place in the car, even less in markets like New York.

That's a bit misleading because you're including passive listening - which is unlikely to hook anyone into listening to HD Radio. The majority of active listening happens in the car. And, please don't count New York because it's commuting patters aren't typical. Fact is, you put HD in cars and it will catch on.

The average age of a car in the US is around 9 years now, and it is increasing due to the economic situation. That means it would take nearly a decade to get to 50% penetration in cars if every car came with HD. It would take nearly 20 years to get the penetration of AM and FM.

Yes, I agree. It's most definitely a tall hill to climb.

No, you don't have to track everything that you play. Two of the organizations do electronic monitoring, and one asks for a log at random about once a year, and most stations just submit their Selector or MusicMaster output. The fees are based on a complex metric based on market and station size (they used to be a percentage of adjusted revenue). The HD channels that have no revenue yet pay a very minimal fee, or are part of the base terrestrial licence.

No need to continue to hammer me on this. I admitted that this was never my department. However, my whole point was YOU CAN'T PROGRAM MUSIC ON THE RADIO FOR FREE. And, that remains true, doesn't it?

 

[R.F. Burns]

If the power boost helps with the coverage issue I wouldn't be surprised if Ibiquity & broadcasters pushe to get more of these receivers in to cars.

 

[RadioDoogie]

Just like with TV aren't we trying to move away from the world of analog in radio? Isn't digital the way we should be moving with radio and why is everyone hanging on to analog as long as we have? Why isn't there more of a push to put HD on all future manufactured radios?

 

[Len14043]

I hope there will be some type of database indicating the digital power of HD stations.

 

[8638]

Just like with TV aren't we trying to move away from the world of analog in radio? Isn't digital the way we should be moving with radio and why is everyone hanging on to analog as long as we have? Why isn't there more of a push to put HD on all future manufactured radios?

Well, the adoption of 8-VSB digital television has not been great for all parties concerned. When it works, and it does, 95% of the time at my location, it's great. But when it doesn't, you get NOTHING. IBOC has the burden of being a Hybrid Digital system, riding alongside the existing analog signal. If you are stationary, and relatively close to the stick, it's great. If, however, you are on the move (read: car) and out in the fringe area of the signal (read: most suburbs/exurbs), being a digital delivery system, when the signal drops below a certain threshold, you hear NOTHING on an HD-2 or 3, and a blend back into analog on the HD-1. Human beings do not see or hear digitally, but rather, analog. We have the ability to listen through analog interference (or to tune to a stronger signal!). Nothing at all wrong with quality analog FM radio. The reason so many want to hold on to analog is because is works, consistently, a claim IBOC cannot yet make.

The concept of IBOC is interesting; its execution, less so. And I will state that I enjoy several HD-2's and 3's receivable at my location. But they suffer from dropout at times, and that is annoying as hell.

 

[davideduardo]

That's a bit misleading because you're including passive listening - which is unlikely to hook anyone into listening to HD Radio. The majority of active listening happens in the car. And, please don't count New York because it's commuting patters aren't typical. Fact is, you put HD in cars and it will catch on.

Not so. I am using diary survey data, remmbering that 7/8 of all Arbitron markets right now are diary markets. And the diary generally has been thought to record only conscious listening, not "hearing" since filling in the diary requires remembering later in the day or in the week the stations one listened to.

The fact is that a third or less of listening takes place in the car. The limitation is time. While a workday may include up to 8 or more hours of listening opportunities, in-car listening for those that commute or use the car for errands is restricted by the length of those tasks.

The PPM does not distinguish between kinds of away from home listening... in fact, at present it can't do that.

I specifically singled out New York as being a low-side exception.

No need to continue to hammer me on this. I admitted that this was never my department. However, my whole point was YOU CAN'T PROGRAM MUSIC ON THE RADIO FOR FREE. And, that remains true, doesn't it?

The cost for HD channels that are not commercialized is minimal to the point of insignificance.

 

[BRNout]

I'll add 2 details to Don's fine reply:

1) 85% of the public doesn't have radio delivered via cable or satellite. Sounds like a silly statement, but for the majority of the public the transition to digital TV was (or appeared to be) seamless.

2) Radio is a mobile medium for the most part. And television is a stationary medium for the most part. Once you can get the antenna tuned just right, you have digital TV and life is good. Radio, on the other hand, is often used on the go. And digital decoding doesn't do very well when you're in motion. Lots of drop-outs, even well inside the coverage area. It happens with HD Radio and it happens with satellite radio (despite their best efforts).

Put simply, analog is more robust and it always will be. Digital isn't always the answer to everything and it isn't always better.

 

[BRNout]

Not so. I am using diary survey data, remmbering that 7/8 of all Arbitron markets right now are diary markets. And the diary generally has been thought to record only conscious listening, not "hearing" since filling in the diary requires remembering later in the day or in the week the stations one listened to.

The fact is that a third or less of listening takes place in the car. The limitation is time. While a workday may include up to 8 or more hours of listening opportunities, in-car listening for those that commute or use the car for errands is restricted by the length of those tasks.

The PPM does not distinguish between kinds of away from home listening... in fact, at present it can't do that.

I specifically singled out New York as being a low-side exception.

Then you're helping to make the anti-HD point for us because you're not going to get HD in most offices unless you listen to those feeds online. And, where will you find the interest in them? In the car.

David, the car is the key listening location where you don't have distractions. Argue with me and you're arguing with each and every PD who has ever paid more money for morning drive and afternoon drive talent. Why do that? Because that listening time spent in the car is the most important listening time of the day.

The cost for HD channels that are not commercialized is minimal to the point of insignificance.

Insignificance is in the eye of the beholder, isn't it? Fact is, they aren't making money airing those subchannels - are they? It's ok, you can admit the truth......

 

[ve3jf]

The fact is that a third or less of listening takes place in the car. The limitation is time. While a workday may include up to 8 or more hours of listening opportunities, in-car listening for those that commute or use the car for errands is restricted by the length of those tasks.

If this is the case, isn't it remarkable that the NPR study concentrated completely on mobile reception? They went out of their way to show that impairments due to IBOC interference can be masked by the ambient noise in vehicles, by putting their test subjects in cars, and playing back previously recorded audio samples as they drove around in traffic. Reception in quiet listening environments simply wasn't considered at all.

And then there's the magic calculator they came up with to show the allowable digital power that a given station should get. It's based on the estimated D/U ratios on the protected contours of 1st adjacent stations - just like the previous calculator that they came up with - remember that one, that showed virtually no stations should get a power increase? The new one is essentially the identical, except that they threw in an 8 dB fudge factor that now permits big increases in most cases. The reasoning behind the 8 dB tweak is fuzzy, to say the least.

Under pressure, the NPR folks have resorted to some really bad science here. And the FCC has once again thrown the public interest out the window by not subjecting their report to any serious scrutiny - in fact, not requesting any comments at all.

Oh well, I won't waste any more time writing about this stuff. Let 'em stew in their own juices...

 

[davideduardo]

David, the car is the key listening location where you don't have distractions. Argue with me and you're arguing with each and every PD who has ever paid more money for morning drive and afternoon drive talent. Why do that? Because that listening time spent in the car is the most important listening time of the day.

The most important listening time in the day is mid-days, followed by afternoons followed by mornings based on the market-based Persons Using Radio percentage. When actual listening is measured, mornings takes last place. This is why Dahl and Brandmeier are out in Chicago, Corcoran in St.Louis... because electronic measurement shows that it's important to measure the results of "personality" morning shows against the now-lower importance of the daypart. This is today's reality in radio.

Insignificance is in the eye of the beholder, isn't it? Fact is, they aren't making money airing those subchannels - are they? It's ok, you can admit the truth......

Many of the ones I am familiar with are making money.

 

[RadeoEngineer]

Many of the ones I am familiar with are making money.

Who and how?

 

[TheRover]

HD sub channels are playing it safe for the most part.

I've had HD for over 2 years now.

YAWN