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[Kabrich]

Finally, Arbitron wants us believe it is a zero sum game - that if one station loses a listener, another has picked one up. They call them trends. Truth is, sampling change alone can result in a ratings shift. The only way I believe they could track a true trend is to survey the same people over and over again for the whole year!

You might want to rethink that. It is a zero sum gang.

Shares are always 100% of radio listening. The pie is ALWAYS 100%.

If there are 100,000 people listening to radio and 10,000 people listen to a station then its a 10% share.

If the next book 110,000 people are listening to radio and 10,000 people listen to a station they only have a 9.1 share.

It is a zero sum gain as share is 100% people listening to radio.

Rating points are percentage of the population listening to radio (not just radio listeners as shares are) and it is not a zero sum gain - but then again, as most do not understand the difference and never see Ratings Points in any trades (its a very small number for most stations), most have no concept of what they are or how they work.

 

[realradioplayer]

Great info. Arbitron.com has a lot of information and free classes for those who want to learn more about Arbitron.

 

[turkeydance]

zero sum: well, that begs the question of dropping audience numbers.
if 100 listen and 3 listen to wztk = 3%
if 30 listen and 1 listens to wztk = 3.3%
PROFIT?

 

[MaskMan]

I think that WZTK is quite deserving of all of the good numbers it can get. I'm sick of Rush. I'm sick of Hannity. I'm sick of all of the same political talk day after day, aren't you? After Obama is elected, all they'll do is tear him down and bitch about what a rotten job he's doing. Haven't we had enough of that yet??

Clark Howard and Alan Handleman are both good alternatives to the political stuff. Their topics are on target for the demo they're trying to reach. Dittohead obviously has an axe to grind with Curtis Media.

Where did Magic go? Are you referring to WMAG or WTHZ? If it was WMAG, it has to do with the Christmas programming and the bump they got from that. What they have now is just a bad hand from the deck. If it was WTHZ, they've changed their line-up, not for the better, as well as being stale. They haven't sounded good for months.

Mediawatch22 - Are we the same person? I could have just written all of the above. This has been one of the best exchanges we've had on this board in months!

Where did Magic go? There is only one Magic and everyone knows it's WMAG. If you look back at previous books, you'll see that although they appear to have dropped like a rock, they really just went back to their pre-Christmas music numbers. They've been playing this game with ratings for years now. I DO think that the book where they went so high is a little suspect. Not even the Christmas music has garnered ratings that high. In fact, I almost wonder if it wasn't a case of staff getting hold of several Arbitrons. At the very least, they must have had excellent diary placement.

WTHZ - The fact that they axed their good PD might have something to do with their ratings. What a joke that they call themselves Majic.

I totally agree with Mediawatch on Clark Howard and Alan Handelman. I really enjoy both of those shows, and yes, I'm an occasional NPR listener, as well. I'm TOTALLY SICK of Rush, Sean Hannity and all their hate-spewing BS. I think a lot of people are seeing through that kind of rhetoric.

As for WZTK ratings, all you have to do is look at their coverage map to understand why they'll never have huge numbers. They don't effectively cover the entire Metro. Doesn't make them a bad station, they just can't play the Arbitron game. Go to www.radio-locator.com and type in their calls, then look at the coverage map. AND, in spite of that, they don't sound like they're hurting for advertisers. I would be willing to bet WZTK is very effective in getting results for advertisers.

Personally, I think all stations should drop Arbitron, and in the current economy I think that's going to happen A LOT. They've been forcing the same old crappy methodology on this industry for years. It's always sucked, but it's all that's available. I too have wondered about the astronomical ratings on WJMH and WQMG. I think part of the problem is that Black listeners are even less likely to fill out diaries than their white counterparts, so a single diary is hugely weighted. It's got to have something to do with the weighting. Plus, there are fewer radio choices for an ethnic audience, so they listen to these stations longer (also a testament to good programming), and TSL can really increase ratings.

Without Arbitron, Media Buyers might be forced to use their brains, coupled with qualitative information in placing their buys. Start the Revolution!!!

 

[realradioplayer]

Here's the deal with both black and talk stations .... TSL .... period. It is purely a factor time spent listening. Look at the Winter book .... the talk stations were through the roof ... did they have a huge amount of listeners ... no... their cume was about the same .... but the TSL was through the roof ... thank politics for that. In the winter black radio listening was down about 4 hours week that's why MKS and QMg has such crappy books .... thank poor diary placement for that ... the rural counties were loaded up in the winter ... they call it urban radio for a reason. Arbitron has done a piss poor job since the PPM crisis ... I guess they forgot who pays most of their bills.

 

[mediawatch22]

Where did Magic go? There is only one Magic and everyone knows it's WMAG.

WTHZ - The fact that they axed their good PD might have something to do with their ratings. What a joke that they call themselves Majic.

I totally agree with Mediawatch on Clark Howard and Alan Handelman. I really enjoy both of those shows, and yes, I'm an occasional NPR listener, as well. I'm TOTALLY SICK of Rush, Sean Hannity and all their hate-spewing BS. I think a lot of people are seeing through that kind of rhetoric.

As for WZTK ratings, all you have to do is look at their coverage map to understand why they'll never have huge numbers. They don't effectively cover the entire Metro. Doesn't make them a bad station, they just can't play the Arbitron game. Go to www.radio-locator.com and type in their calls, then look at the coverage map. AND, in spite of that, they don't sound like they're hurting for advertisers. I would be willing to bet WZTK is very effective in getting results for advertisers.

Personally, I think all stations should drop Arbitron, and in the current economy I think that's going to happen A LOT. They've been forcing the same old crappy methodology on this industry for years. It's always sucked, but it's all that's available. I too have wondered about the astronomical ratings on WJMH and WQMG. I think part of the problem is that Black listeners are even less likely to fill out diaries than their white counterparts, so a single diary is hugely weighted. It's got to have something to do with the weighting. Plus, there are fewer radio choices for an ethnic audience, so they listen to these stations longer (also a testament to good programming), and TSL can really increase ratings.

Without Arbitron, Media Buyers might be forced to use their brains, coupled with qualitative information in placing their buys. Start the Revolution!!!

What you're saying is very valid. There's no "attitude" and you're just stating facts. As far as ZTK is concerned, not all radio stations sell air time based on Arbitron. A lot of ZTK's business comes at the local retail level and they have a pretty good client base. All you have to do is listen to who's advertising on ZTK. It's a lot of the same businesses that come back regularly becase the station works for them.

WTHZ used to be a top 5 25-54 station. Now they're down to number 11 or12. That company is very good at turning a decent product into a loser. The trends and quarterly reports will back me up. WMAG needs to freshen up but they have a far better reputation than most of the heritage formats in the market. They can make a comeback.

 

[quadraphonic]

I think that WZTK is quite deserving of all of the good numbers it can get.

THAT'S THE POINT: THEY CAN'T GET ANY DECENT NUMBERS!

Numbers don't matter as much as revenue.
Curtis Media stations don't seem like they sell based on Arbitron numbers, anyway (even when they can with WQDR). No matter how much peops want them to fit into "the way it's supposed to be done" they just don't, and they keep on going on.

 

[w00t]

and they keep on going on.

At least as of a couple years ago they bill more than anyone else in the Triangle at that. Curtis has come a long way in the past 5 years... I remember when 96 Rock and QDR shared jocks... now 96 has a full slate of live jocks. The man knows what he's doing.

 

[XTalker]

Finally, Arbitron wants us believe it is a zero sum game - that if one station loses a listener, another has picked one up. They call them trends. Truth is, sampling change alone can result in a ratings shift. The only way I believe they could track a true trend is to survey the same people over and over again for the whole year!

You might want to rethink that. It is a zero sum gang.

Shares are always 100% of radio listening. The pie is ALWAYS 100%.

If there are 100,000 people listening to radio and 10,000 people listen to a station then its a 10% share.

If the next book 110,000 people are listening to radio and 10,000 people listen to a station they only have a 9.1 share.

It is a zero sum gain as share is 100% people listening to radio.

Rating points are percentage of the population listening to radio (not just radio listeners as shares are) and it is not a zero sum gain - but then again, as most do not understand the difference and never see Ratings Points in any trades (its a very small number for most stations), most have no concept of what they are or how they work.

While share is based on 100%, real radio listening is not! I have always disagreed with Arbitron's assertion that they can show a trend with their methodology. There is no way in hell listenrs switch from stations like WSJS and WZTK in large enough number to impact the ratings!

 

[XTalker]

As for ZTK ratings vs revenue, you have to recognize they sell in two markets. Their combined RDU and GSO cume is likely in the 130,000-150,000 range and that is a healthy number and can be mighty attractive to advertisers.

Quadraphonic is right. Curtis hires people who know how to sell radio the old fashioned way. Yeh, they have some numbers seller, too, but their base is solid relationship selling with repeat business based on results! If more sellers ignored Arbitron and learned how to sell rather than take orders, the industry would be better off.

BTW, my comments about the changes at WSJS are not based on bitterness in any way, shape, or form. They are simply based on the reality of the situation - and I am sure the powers at be recognize that. Patience - and some cume building promotion - is th order of the day!

 

[MaskMan]

Quadraphonic is right. Curtis hires people who know how to sell radio the old fashioned way. Yeh, they have some numbers seller, too, but their base is solid relationship selling with repeat business based on results! If more sellers ignored Arbitron and learned how to sell rather than take orders, the industry would be better off.

Amen! The sellers that sell with numbers are either lazy or just inexperienced and don't know any better. I don't know any successful, seasoned sellers that use Arbitron numbers when selling local direct. AND, bringing in local direct business is highly prized at any radio station. If you train advertisers on numbers, you'll never get them away from it and Arbitron numbers are always going up and down. Hence the old saying "live by the numbers, die by the numbers".

 

[RoundMound]

Still think arb is a solid way of measuring radio listenership? Behold SP08 M25-54 7p-12m. Numero Uno is DeeeeeeeeeLiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiLaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhh... What a JOKE!

 

[eyewitness news]

come on round....you love her

 

[disgruntled]

Quote from XTalker:
With all due respect, your basic premise is wrong. One station loses listeners does not mean another station of a similar format will pick them up. It might work with music, but talk radio is a way different animal.
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need to clarify a few things:

I know the sampling pool is not static from book to book.  In fact, that was my whole point; the pronounced urban skew in sp08 would seem to indicate a a radical shift in the sample demos from the previous book, unless we're supposed to believe that there was a sudden massive influx of urban-oriented listeners into the overall population during a 3-month period.

My question--still unanswered--is, why is arbitron trying so hard to make the numbers fit certain pre-conceived notions about listenership?  What is the motivation?

 

[Sniffthamic]

It all comes down to the same couple of things: Get higher ratings and you beat the competition. Period. If your share of the market is higher than the other stations, you should come out on top. This should be true book after book, time after time. Xtalker will back me up here.

 

[Christopher Chenn]

It all comes down to the same couple of things: Get higher ratings and you beat the competition. Period. If your share of the market is higher than the other stations, you should come out on top. This should be true book after book, time after time. Xtalker will back me up here.

Ya and if you travel 60 mph in your car after 1 hour you will have traveled 60 miles.
Sniff, I'm sure it sounded real brainy when your wrote it but what are you trying to say. If you score more home runs than the other team in a baseball game you will most likely win the game? Really?

 

[XTalker]

I guess if you remain with today's radio atmospher, sniff is right.

One exception, however, a station with OK ratings and the right sales people can outperform the station with GREAT ratings and a room full of order takers. We used to talk about the power ratio - percentage of revenue in the market vs share of audience. The best sales staffs can out perform their ratings any day of the week.

You want a real measure of radio's effectiveness, talk to the local advertisers of WSJS. They come back again and again. While that station's ratings put them at 10th of 11th (12+) their revenue has always been in the top four of five in the market, and at one time was third, sniffing at 2nd.

 

[Sniffthamic]

Very interesting take on my revolutionary theory, there Xtalker. You've really given us all a lot to think about. Given your theory here, you are actually saying that a station with ratings that are not as high as a station with higher ratings might actually win the ratings race? This is truly extraordinary. I really wish ARB still put out paper books so I could study up on this a little bit more than I can. Thank you.

 

[realradioplayer]

Sniff -
Complete ratings books are available on-line. If you don't have a password e-mail me privately and I will make you a copy of the E-Book and mail it to you. If you don't want to do that Clear Channel or Entercom has something on-line. Goggle Entercom Greensboro or Clear Channel Greensboro, I don't remember who had it, but they have alot of market specific demo specific details on their website.
Ciao, Playa

 

[XTalker]

Very interesting take on my revolutionary theory, there Xtalker. You've really given us all a lot to think about. Given your theory here, you are actually saying that a station with ratings that are not as high as a station with higher ratings might actually win the ratings race? This is truly extraordinary. I really wish ARB still put out paper books so I could study up on this a little bit more than I can. Thank you.

What I actually said is the station with mid-ranked ratings can be a leader in REVENUE. It is proven month after month in the Triad and in similar markets. I am saying you can have 4% of the listening (according to Arbitron 12+) and still do 8% of the business.

I remember when WYYD (96.1 Raleigh) changed from BM to AC. The station had an 11 share in the Spring of 1981 but could only muster about 6% of the revenue in the market. After the change to AC, the share actually dropped but the revenue increased! Two factors - BM was a tough sell, and the station had a great sales staff!