Who is Flipping first???

[redbullfan]

I'm 32 and I happen to know the largest group generationally speaking are the babyboomers. A significant portion of those are within the 35-64 demo and why on earth advertisers don't want to target them is breath-taking. To say there is a shrinking audience for News/Talk or Oldies on AM is baseless...the vast majority of these babyboomers grew up on AM radio. They know it still exists...there needs to be Sales People who will notice the revenue potential of the largest group of Americans and go after it instead of abandoning it. It is time for leadership and not simply following. In Politics the most Politically active are the babyboomers and they are in that 35-64 demo that you claim doesn't exist...well it used to be there...what a shame.
Young people know AM is there, but you have to get them to give AM a chance with a convincing product...oh wait...we are dealing with a nation of whiners and Sales folks who can't come up with the information at their disposal to make their station's revenue stream up. It is called laziness on a national scale. Unfortunately it is all about the bottom line and not quality...money is tight in these radio companies...I say fire all the Sales People and keep just one and re-hire the DJs and make radio great again and maybe..just maybe the Revenue will come back to radio. I have all but given up on radio in all forms because it is not creative or Inovative or local much anymore. Radio Sales folks make way too much money and have too much control over what the programming side does and limits the number of DJs the station has...limits being local. Why are younger people listening to radio less...No personalities on a local level anymore...boring contests...imaging and more and you have younger listeners fleeing to anything that is more creative and fun to listen too.

18-34 will listen to AM radio...I believe that with all my heart, but you have to go out and get them. Radio Disney does it...however; I don't know their revenue stream if any. If these kids who have grown up listening to radio disney station in various markets...KNOW ABOUT AM RADIO...these young people can be reached with AM radio just like FM. IT is the product stupid.

 

[davideduardo]

I'm 32 and I happen to know the largest group generationally speaking are the babyboomers. A significant portion of those are within the 35-64 demo and why on earth advertisers don't want to target them is breath-taking.

Without the labels, advertisers want to reach consumers where the return on the investment is good. Over-55's do not produce a good ROI, and are not targeted by advertisers who use radio.

To say there is a shrinking audience for News/Talk or Oldies on AM is baseless

I only bothered to look at the top 100 markets, but it is easy to see that the big AM news talk stations are almost all off in 12+. From WCCO to KMOX to WBAP to WSB, every one has a lower share and all but 3 in the top 100 are declining in bllings. And in 25-54 the decreases in ratings are significant.

there needs to be Sales People who will notice the revenue potential of the largest group of Americans and go after it instead of abandoning it.

This has nothing to do with sales. It is about agency clients telling their agencies to buy against demos that do not include 55+.

I say fire all the Sales People and keep just one and re-hire the DJs and make radio great again and maybe..just maybe the Revenue will come back to radio.

Calling for DJs means you actually think tht there is a market for music on AM. It's been tried over and over in the 30 years since AM took the majority of radio listening shares, and does not work. AM is to radio what B&W is to TV.

Radio Sales folks make way too much money and have too much control over what the programming side does and limits the number of DJs the station has...limits being local.

Sales doesn't make these decisions. Management and ownership do.

/quote]18-34 will listen to AM radio...I believe that with all my heart, but you have to go out and get them. Radio Disney does it...however; I don't know their revenue stream if any.[/quote]

Radio Disney is a brand enhancement for the Disney brand... its principal purpose is to do that, not sell advertising. And it's target is 6-12 year olds, not 18-34. In the new PPM measurements, it has no measurable listening, either.

If these kids who have grown up listening to radio disney station in various markets...KNOW ABOUT AM RADIO...these young people can be reached with AM radio just like FM. IT is the product stupid.

Then why do news talkers that move to FM or add an FM simulcast increase dramatically in 25-54 with the same programming? It's the band and its horrible quality.

 

[flipper123]

Like I was saying, KLLI is a loss-leader right now, you have a manager whos put the whole place into a tailspin and talent whos either bailing or will soon. Either flipping to Americana or Alt Rock will be better than whats going on now...

anyone know the details of Russ Martin's contract? How long, how will CBS get out? Pay off?

 

[mediasup1]

David Eduardo, I don't know if you are in the business or just speculating, but you couldn't be more wrong about Boomer Advertising:

In the top 10 markets which are a significant portion of our nations listenership, in the top 10 markets, there is a News/ Talk in the top 10, here are the breakouts: 1 at #9, 4 at #7, 1 at #4, 1 at #3, 1 at #2 and 3 at #1 (SF has 2 in the top 10). Boomer advertising has been on a steady increase due in large part to the fact that the younger demos are harder to reach and get a positive ROI.

It has everything to do with sales, boomers have discretionary income, that means more sales.

 

[little1]

Are those rankings 12+ or 25-54?

And here's a 10 year old article that shows this has been going on for quite a while. http://www.kassof.com/insights/ri-wi980.htm

But I think the proof is in the pudding:

#1 ranked station P25-54 in the last trend? KTCK.

Top billing station so far this year? KTCK.

Not KRLD, whose audience are all AARP members, not WBAP, ditto, butthe much younger skewing KTCK. Boomer advertising may be increasing, but I bet it's still dwarfed by the 25-54 demo.

 

[davideduardo]

David Eduardo, I don't know if you are in the business or just speculating, but you couldn't be more wrong about Boomer Advertising:

Yes, I am in the business and involved with stations in 6 of the top 10 markets as well as 4 more in markets 11 to 20.

In the top 10 markets which are a significant portion of our nations listenership, in the top 10 markets, there is a News/ Talk in the top 10,

There is not a single one in the top 10 25-54. Again, as I said in a prior post, there essentially zero business for 55+ audiences in radio. Those that approach having some decent 25-54 numbers are in decline in that demo and their billings are in decline also...

here are the breakouts: 1 at #9, 4 at #7, 1 at #4, 1 at #3, 1 at #2 and 3 at #1 (SF has 2 in the top 10).

Those are 12+ ranks. The reason Arbitron gives them away to the press is that they are valueless for sales and programming. You have to look at 18-49 or 25-54. Period.

In LA, in 25-54, there is not an AM in any format in the top 10. In SF, the traditional n/t station, KGO, is 18th in 25-54. However, the FM n/t station, KQED, is 5th. In Dallas and Houston, no AM is in the top 15. Etc.

Boomer advertising has been on a steady increase due in large part to the fact that the younger demos are harder to reach and get a positive ROI.

It's the exact opposite. 25-54 used to be the broad sales demo, and it is shifting now to 18-49. There is no business for 55+ on radio except in smaller markets or for marginal stations that take any rate.

It has everything to do with sales, boomers have discretionary income, that means more sales.

Well, how do you explain the fact that there are really no 55+ buys at all?

 

[mediasup1]

David, sorry but you are just wrong. The post I responded to was about declining shares and the existence of boomer advertising, your last post was about rankings in the top 10 and stations being down. Fact is, most markets (N/NT/T top 10) are flat or up.

Everyone's revenues are down, including your company's.

12+ numbers are not a throw away, I don't make my buys based on them, but I do look. It does, however, give you a chance to spin away, unless your stations look good, then you use them. Trust me, I have a number of presentations made by reps working for your company with 12+ numbers on them.

My original post here was to say that boomer advertising is existing and on the increase and it is so because 55+ ROI is visible (boomers have the money) where the younger demos are diminishing (because they are squeezed by gas and the economy). You clearly are not involved on the sales side. If you came with a rep for a presentation and made your claims to me and my buyers, you would be laughed out of the agency.

 

[salemjedi54]

In LA, in 25-54, there is not an AM in any format in the top 10. In SF, the traditional n/t station, KGO, is 18th in 25-54. However, the FM n/t station, KQED, is 5th. In Dallas and Houston, no AM is in the top 15. Etc.
quote]


Wasn't The Ticket in the top 10 this past book. 25-54

 

[davideduardo]

Wasn't The Ticket in the top 10 this past book. 25-54

Yep, my mistake. I should have said News/Talk AM. The Ticket is rather unique in all the large markets of the US, with big 25-54 numbers. It will be interesting to see how it does in PPM in a few months.

As an interesting sidebar, sports stations seem to get 18-34's and 35-54's with some ease. I'm curious to see how the new FM sports stations in places like Detroit and such do... so far, WXYT, a simulcast of AM and FM for some reason not reported in single line method appears to have more than doubled its 12+ share since adding FM, with 80% of the numbers coming from the FM.

 

[davideduardo]

David, sorry but you are just wrong. The post I responded to was about declining shares and the existence of boomer advertising, your last post was about rankings in the top 10 and stations being down. Fact is, most markets (N/NT/T top 10) are flat or up.

Audience for AM news talkers in the top 50 markets are generally down. In 25-54, they are, if you look at four to five year trending, all down. Most look like KMOX which was double digits up to 3 years ago, and is now a 6.3 12+ (yeah, they lost BB but that affects mostly just two books).

WCCO in the 8's through '05, now a 6.6 in last book. WSB mostly double digits through '03, now averaging high 7's. I could go on, but nearly all are that way.

And the loss is in 25-54, the sales demo. You really have to peel off the 55+ as there is scant revenue to be garnered from that demo.

Everyone's revenues are down, including your company's.

I am talking of multi year trends. Where I am, we were up double digit's last year, and are flat this year... so far, per the press releases on the web.

12+ numbers are not a throw away, I don't make my buys based on them, but I do look. It does, however, give you a chance to spin away, unless your stations look good, then you use them. Trust me, I have a number of presentations made by reps working for your company with 12+ numbers on them.

While 12+ may give bragging rights, it sure is useless for sales. I've never seen a 12+ buy. Ever.

My original post here was to say that boomer advertising is existing and on the increase and it is so because 55+ ROI is visible (boomers have the money) where the younger demos are diminishing (because they are squeezed by gas and the economy).

I asked a former sales manager of a music FM in LA that has a significant 55+ audience (that they are trying to get rid of) if he had ever seen a piece of 55+ business come up for rate quotes, and he said that he had seen exactly one, and it was for a ballot initiative that affected only seniors.

There is no good ROI on 55+ for most consumer goods and services because the average 55+ has somewhat to considerably greater brand loyalty or, at least, history of use. It takes too many impressions to overcome this for nearly all categories, so the ROI is often negative.

You clearly are not involved on the sales side. If you came with a rep for a presentation and made your claims to me and my buyers, you would be laughed out of the agency.

I have been involved with sales since I became (among other things) GSM of a Top 40 station in 1964. Until fairly recently, I was a group GSM (among other things) in a top 15 market and increased sales on average over 25% every year for 8 years and did almost 100% agency sales.

The fact is that there are essentially no 55+ buys. Were your points true, there would be vastly more.

Were there opportunities for 55+, we would not have nearly every "oldies" station converted to "classic hits." It's a shame there is not a concerted effort to market radio in this area and to push marketing to 55+; radio needs to be able to include the large 55+ group in the spectrum of sales offerings as one of the reasons why many stations have cut back is that markets are very compressed and there are too many stations going after the same demos or subsets.

Imagine if 55+ were a sales demo. Several stations in each market could serve it... new money would be put in budgets for this sector... and the stations that stayed below 55 would have fewer competitors for the ears.

 

[little1]

Were there opportunities for 55+, we would not have nearly every "oldies" station converted to "classic hits." It's a shame there is not a concerted effort to market radio in this area and to push marketing to 55+;

I've tried to make this point before. KLUV's playlist 15 years ago was 60's with a sprinkling of 70's. Now it's 70's with a sprinkling of 80's and a light sprinkling of 60's. But even the 60's is late 60's (Jimi, Beatles, Motown, etc) and not early 60's (Early Spector stuff (Ronettes, etc) doo wop, etc) What was classic rock 15 years ago is oldies now...That tells me the oldies stations are trying to get younger to stay in that 45-54 demo. They've written off the (now) seniors who listened to them 15-20 years ago.

And DE- I've got some friends who've worked at the various KAAM's. They're convinced part of the problem with 55+ buys is that a lot of what the disposable income IS spent on aren't impulse buys. "Old folks" are much more likely to comparison shop, investigate all the possibilitys, etc, before they rush out and buy a new product just because it's, well, new. So a lot of stuff that's marketed to older audiences (LOL- Lincoln town cars, cruises, mutual funds, cemetery plots at restland etc) can be better marketed through other mediums than radio. What I've been told, is that for some of those clients, radio is a good lead generator, but it still requires serious sales effort to "close".

Comapre that to some of the ads on 105.3 (since that is a hot subject lately) topless bars, viagra knock offs, liquor stores, etc. Think someone is going to spend more time deciding where to move 20K in a retirement fund, or which topless bar to drop a couple of 20's at...

 

[redbullfan]

David,

When you talk about declining shares a few things come to mind. A few years ago Arbitron changed how it surveyed the markets in the diary process. The ratings became watered down and shares went down overall for every format in the largest markets. Arbitron also went out of it's way to please minorities and now Spanish and Urban shares are over represented and the PPM will level the playing field to where it actually is or closer to it.

It is sad that just about every station can claim #1 in something. What happened to being honest about your overall rank 12+ which represents the "Mass Appeal" factor. If you look at the heritage News/Talkers still on AM...they are still very much "Mass Appeal." Sales Agencies will notice the "Mass Appeal" numbers as well...yes they are what you call beauty...but David these stations are still doing their job and will be 20 years from now if the programming product stays high. KDKA will be in the Top 10 for 20, 40, 60 years from now...the station is of legend...and the 12+ Mass Appeal numbers will remain close with the FM rival for years to come. In 40 years most of these AM Heritage News/Talk stations will still be there getting great ratings...why...Unless our Country is overtaken by the North Koreans...Politics will still be there as a mainstay of these radio stations and these stations will still by 35-64....just like today. Younger people may not listen to AM radio because most are not Politically Active, but just like their older counterparts they know equally that AM is there. 99% of all radios sold in the US contain the AM band and so the Young know of it's existence even though they may not use it that often. Now if the product or a product was there that they wanted...Music or talk or sport they would listen.

 

[redbullfan]

For Example Live 105.3 is #1 with Men who are domestic abusers. Just look at those who defend him and continue to listen to that wasteland on 105.3.

 

[little1]

It is sad that just about every station can claim #1 in something. What happened to being honest about your overall rank 12+ which represents the "Mass Appeal" factor.

I think DE's point is that who CARES about mass appeal? Most of us in the bid-ness realize that is IS a bid-ness, and we have to make money. And 12+ ratings do NOT generally make stations money. I remember back a dozen or so years when I interviewed a girl who'd been at 100.3 when it was Jamz. They did real well 12+, they were giving KKDA a run for their money ratings wise. But they had no 25-54 numbers to speak of, and therefore little revenue. So they flipped.
KTCK was mentioned earlier. They can barely break the top 10 12+, but they are #1 25-54 and #1 in revenue. they're appealing both to listeners AND to advertisers.

If you look at the heritage News/Talkers still on AM...they are still very much "Mass Appeal." Sales Agencies will notice the "Mass Appeal" numbers as well...yes they are what you call beauty...but David these stations are still doing their job and will be 20 years from now if the programming product stays high. KDKA will be in the Top 10 for 20, 40, 60 years from now...the station is of legend...and the 12+ Mass Appeal numbers will remain close with the FM rival for years to come. In 40 years most of these AM Heritage News/Talk stations will still be there getting great ratings

No they won't. Newspapers are already dying a slow death from the internet. All news radio is next. After all, what possible reason would I have to tune into a news station to hear 6-12-18 hour old news when I can log onto the internet and find exactly what I want, often delivered right o my desktop.

they know equally that AM is there. 99% of all radios sold in the US contain the AM band and so the Young know of it's existence even though they may not use it that often. Now if the product or a product was there that they wanted...Music or talk or sport they would listen.

Backs up a point I've tried to make here before. People claim AM is dead, but can't explain why the top 2 billing stations in the market are on AM. (except by claiming more units, which ignores the fact that KRLD, ESPN, KLLI, etc all can run just as many units) they're popular because they provide a product (sports and conservative talk) that people want.

 

[redbullfan]

No they won't...ummmm...they thought all radio would die when the TV came on the scene in the 50s. Newspapers are hurting, but they won't ultimately die. They are changing with the times my friend...they are going Online and that is where their source of Income is growing actually. Newspapers will still exist in 50 years and you will look like a fool and so will magazines...mostly online, but they will exist on the street as always. People still drive long distances even though airplanes make it easier and quicker...why...you can't see the scenery that well from 30,000 feet high. AM/FM radio will never die either...Satellite costs money...why pay for something when you can get something for free and furthermore is of lesser quality and not local. WBAP will beat any FM that flips to the same format...why?...WBAP's Line-up is stellar and the FM rival will get trounced by the signal alone.
AM radio is not dying like you said...not even a slow death.

 

[davideduardo]

When you talk about declining shares a few things come to mind. A few years ago Arbitron changed how it surveyed the markets in the diary process.

I must have slept through that year. As far as I know, there has been no major change in the diary method in the last few decades. The minor changes include language preference for Hispanics, improvements in DST, and redefinition of the HDHAs.

The ratings became watered down and shares went down overall for every format in the largest markets. Arbitron also went out of it's way to please minorities and now Spanish and Urban shares are over represented and the PPM will level the playing field to where it actually is or closer to it.

That is just untrue. All demos including age and gender and ethnicity, as well as geography, are proportional. If a market is 42% Hispanic, Arbitron seeks to get 42% of its diaries back from Hispanics.

The changes in TSL in the PPM for Hispanics are related to rounding when diaries are filled in; Hispanics tend to round time to larger units than non Hispanic whites.

Yet today, 6 of the top 10 stations in the PPM weekly are Hispanc, and 5 of the top 11 are as well.

It is sad that just about every station can claim #1 in something. What happened to being honest about your overall rank 12+ which represents the "Mass Appeal" factor.

You made that term up, and it means nothing. Stations target specific parts of 18 to 54, because that is where the money is. 12+ means nothing.

If you look at the heritage News/Talkers still on AM...they are still very much "Mass Appeal." Sales Agencies will notice the "Mass Appeal" numbers as well

Sales agencies? Do you mean national sales rep firms? Or ad agencies? I've never heard of a sales agency. So probably you are a real outsider and don't seem to want to learn.

[/quote]...yes they are what you call beauty...but David these stations are still doing their job and will be 20 years from now if the programming product stays high. KDKA will be in the Top 10 for 20, 40, 60 years from now.[/quote]

In sales demos, it is 13th. That is all that matters, and that is certainly part of why CBS told the staff the station was for sale. Declining ratings, ageing demos, declining sales.

the 12+ Mass Appeal numbers will remain close with the FM rival for years to come. In 40 years most of these AM Heritage News/Talk stations will still be there getting great ratings...why...Unless our Country is overtaken by the North Koreans...Politics will still be there as a mainstay of these radio stations and these stations will still by 35-64....just like today.

First, those stations... all of them... are declining in 12+. As each year passes, AM's average age increases, because people under 50 grew up on FM. AM sounds bad, is bad.

Younger people may not listen to AM radio because most are not Politically Active, but just like their older counterparts they know equally that AM is there. 99% of all radios sold in the US contain the AM band and so the Young know of it's existence even though they may not use it that often. Now if the product or a product was there that they wanted...Music or talk or sport they would listen.

It sounds bad. When news talk moves to FM, the younger demos grow nicely. That is because the format is on the band the under-55's prefer.

 

[redbullfan]

CBS I have heard is selling the entire cluster in Pittsburg...not just KDKA. WABC and WBAP along with the majority of AM heritage stations are not declining 12+...they are steady. These stations are not dying...as long as Politics is the life-blood of these stations they will be just fine. All ages who favor Politics and News know how to find AM just like FM. I'm not stupid...FM has gazillions more listeners, but they identify Music with FM and Info mainly with AM. There has always been the term, "Mass Appeal!" Top 40 and Country tend to be more Mass Appeal.

 

[Steve Eberhart]

...and I thought this was Napolean Dynamite asking what station was #1...

 

[rbrucecarter5]

The fact is that there are essentially no 55+ buys. Were your points true, there would be vastly more.

Were there opportunities for 55+, we would not have nearly every "oldies" station converted to "classic hits." It's a shame there is not a concerted effort to market radio in this area and to push marketing to 55+; radio needs to be able to include the large 55+ group in the spectrum of sales offerings as one of the reasons why many stations have cut back is that markets are very compressed and there are too many stations going after the same demos or subsets.

Imagine if 55+ were a sales demo. Several stations in each market could serve it... new money would be put in budgets for this sector... and the stations that stayed below 55 would have fewer competitors for the ears.

And whose fault is that? I think the advertising agencies that have ignored a demographic that has vast disposable income. These are the folks who, for the most part, no longer have kids at home or college sapping their income, have paid off their mortgages, have inhereted wealth, are at the top of their career, etc.

So - what do 55+ buy?

High end autos
Vacations
Timeshares
Health Care
Furniture
Luxury items

The list goes on and on. So why aren't there commercials and stations catering to that crowd? Probably because it is the same demographic that remembers the way radio used to be, and is disgusted with the present stations. No matter what their musical tastes are. Radio is homogenized, consolidated, passes the test of the legal department, passes the test of the "suits" in management. In other words - it isn't working any more to reach discriminating listeners because it isn't any more fun.

 

[davideduardo]

And whose fault is that? I think the advertising agencies that have ignored a demographic that has vast disposable income.

Although we have discussed this before, it's time to say again, "it's not the ad agencies."

Targeting for a product is determined mostly by the client of the agency, and is based on consumption "hot demos" as well as what the client's marketing department knows about return on investment.

Advertisers know that 55+ have money, but they also know that the older a person is, the more they have learned about what they like and the harder it is to change patterns. What that means is that it takes more ads to create a sale, and often that need for more impressions means the sale costs more to make than the profit on the sale.

The list goes on and on. So why aren't there commercials and stations catering to that crowd? Probably because it is the same demographic that remembers the way radio used to be, and is disgusted with the present stations.

Actually, 55+ makes great use of radio, using the medium as much as under 55 demos. The issue is advertisers don't target 55+.