Who is Flipping first???

[davideduardo]

CBS I have heard is selling the entire cluster in Pittsburg...not just KDKA.

And that is mostly because the AM is so rapidly declining and the market cluster has no growth potential because of it. KDKA is 13th in 25-54.

WABC and WBAP along with the majority of AM heritage stations are not declining 12+...they are steady. These stations are not dying...

WBAP over the last 6 books averages a full point below the average for the 6 prior books. In the last trend, it is out of the top 10 in 25-54.

If you look at WTIC, WBAL, WPHT, WTAM, WJR, WGN, WCCO, KMOX, etc., you see slowly declining 12+, faster declining 25-54 and slowly eroding billings.

A few stations like WTMJ and WBZ have managed to keep share in 12+, but are declining in 25-54 unless they have baseball or strong sports.

None are growing or staying flat in 25-54. And that is where the money is.

 

[redbullfan]

Sir David,

Let's look at the final score...12+ over the last number of books for WBAP...they range from a low of 3.3 to a high of 4.1...this past trend is a 3.7. Right in the middle of their range as of late. Truth hurts!

 

[davideduardo]

Let's look at the final score...12+ over the last number of books for WBAP...they range from a low of 3.3 to a high of 4.1...this past trend is a 3.7. Right in the middle of their range as of late. Truth hurts!

Last trend, WBAP was 17th with a 2.3 share while the #1 station, with a 5.1 beat it by more than two to one.

That's the sales reality, that is why their billing is going down more than the industry average.

There is no point in mentioning 12+ in the context of evaluating the viability of a format or a station. The only ages that produce significant, ongoing, agency sales are between 18 and 54.

 

[redbullfan]

Sir David,

I'm not talking your Sales Demo...I'm talking about eh FINISH LINE OVERALL. WBAP ain't going down...they are in their normal range. Now to Arbitron: I now recall what they do in the diary process...it is called "Weighting" in other words they give more ratings to minority stations...specifically hispanics...that is not equality...that is bias. KESS and other Spanish stations would not be so high and English language stations would be at normal levels. Country would be up and so would HOT AC...News/Talk too. Both Country stations will soar big time with PPM...I don't believe they are middle of the pack...this is Texas!

 

[plasticlife0]

Hey David, what are the top 10 billing stations in DFW over the past month year?

 

[davideduardo]

I'm not talking your Sales Demo...I'm talking about eh FINISH LINE OVERALL.

There is no such thing in the real world of commercial radio. Advertisers in major markets buy 18-54, or some subset, and don't care about 12+

WBAP ain't going down...they are in their normal range.

It's not even in the top 15 in 25-54. That is not a normal range, and not a salable range.

[/quote] Now to Arbitron: I now recall what they do in the diary process...it is called "Weighting" in other words they give more ratings to minority stations...specifically hispanics...that is not equality...that is bias.[/quote]

Every random probability sample has to do some degree of weighting. In theory, a sample will give a perfectly proportional representation of every subset you care about in the universe you are sampling. But today, refusal rates, availablity of indivuduals, security and fraud issues cause different groups to respond out of proportion. So weighting up or down of under or oversampled cells is used to restore proportionality.

An example. A market is 55% women and 45% men. You sample 100 people and get 52% women and 48% men. The women will be weighted up to 55% and the men will be weighted down to 45% to achieve a match with the market percentage of men.

All cells by age, gender, ethnicity, language and geography, are weighted up or down to make their part in the total Arbitron sample in 100% proportion with the market composition. Weighting has been used by Arbitron since 1964 when they started doing radio surveys.

Weighting does not benefit or harm any ethnicity or age group. It is used to make the achieved sample match the universe being sampled.

KESS and other Spanish stations would not be so high and English language stations would be at normal levels. Country would be up and so would HOT AC...News/Talk too. Both Country stations will soar big time with PPM...I don't believe they are middle of the pack...this is Texas!

The PPM employs the same standard for weighting as the diary method does. As we have seen from Houston, the total Spanish shares in the PPM there are HIGHER than under the diary (19.2 to around 21 shares) and country stations are generally down. The improved formats are rock, like The Buzz, and AC, like Sunny. Urbans are about the same after the panel shook out, and AM is off overall, especially in 25-54.

 

[little1]

Sir David,

I'm not talking your Sales Demo...I'm talking about eh FINISH LINE OVERALL. WBAP ain't going down...they are in their normal range.

The problem is that management makes their decisions not on the finish line, but on the bottom line.

Take Movin'. I've said before that it's entirely possible for them to have ratings go down, but revenue to go up. Because The Oasis drew an older audience, which, while it was bigger, was a harder "sell" to advertisers. By switching to Movin, they've increased (IIRC) their overall 25-54 numbers, even though their 12+ numbers have dropped. Better 25-54 numbers, easier sales,= more money

You can look at the 'finish line overall" if you want. Just realize that that is NOT where decisions about what stations to keep, what formats to flip, what jocks to fire, etc are being made. Those decisions are being made based on 25-54 (or important demographic breakdowns specific to each station within that range)...

Want to know why we have so many attempted sports stations? Because the Ticket is a top biller in the market. Want to know why we have so many news-talkers? Because WBAP is giving KTCK a run for their money. IIRC Jack is a top 10 station 25-54. And have NO payroill to speak of. people look attheir 12+ and think 'they can do better'. Hey., they're doing fine. A lot better 25-54 than a ton of other higher profile stations. It's aboutthe 25-54 numbers, and teh revenue that can be generated from those numbers.

NOT 12+. reall. I'm not kidding.

 

[redbullfan]

Little1 you put David on the spot when you mention the revenue of WBAP and the fact it is giving "The Ticket" a run for it's money despite being out done in 25-54...now ask yourself why they are neck and neck...hmmm WBAP beats the ticket 12+ and that keeps them close in Revenue with the Ticket. Put that in your hat and smoke it. I doubt Movin is beating the Oasis at a 1.3 share....in Revenue. WBAP can't move to FM unless Citadel buys another or more Full Signal FMs in Dallas...the market is flooded with Talk stations of various kinds and there is not room for a News/Talk on FM...unless CBS scraps Live 105.3 and puts KRLD on FM...then you will have another KFYI and KTAR kinda competition. KRLD's line-up is inferior to WBAP and would not gain a penny in moving to FM unless the Line-up improves. I bet WBAP will be strong and healthy 20 years from now if their product remains stellar.

 

[Texaz]

From what I've heard WBAP has the biggest AM daytime coverage and is equal to others as the biggest nighttime coverage. So that should contribute to revenue. Their signal is massive at night. They should have no problem reaching Oklahoma City or Austin with a good signal at night.

 

[scottythecynic]

Little1, I sure do miss the Oasis though. No jazz in Dallas seems a crime!

 

[returnofbongo]

Who said there is no Jazz in Dallas? There are thousands of elevators and dentist offices. You can listen there.

 

[davideduardo]

From what I've heard WBAP has the biggest AM daytime coverage and is equal to others as the biggest nighttime coverage. So that should contribute to revenue. Their signal is massive at night. They should have no problem reaching Oklahoma City or Austin with a good signal at night.

There is, today, virtually no way to monetize out of market coverage. WBAP gets a 1 share in Lawton, but there is no advertiser in Lawton that will buy at Dallas rates. And national agency accounts buy each market separately because they run multi-station reach and frequency tallies for each market, not for the whole country.

Today, high power (although by world standards, 50 kw is low power) is only good to blanket the local market.

 

[davideduardo]

Little1 you put David on the spot when you mention the revenue of WBAP and the fact it is giving "The Ticket" a run for it's money despite being out done in 25-54

WBAP's 12+ and 25-54 numbers are falling. In sales demos, it is now out of the top 15. It takes sales a longer time to fall, but when the PPM hits, look for WBAP to nosedive.

...now ask yourself why they are neck and neck...hmmm WBAP beats the ticket 12+ and that keeps them close in Revenue with the Ticket. Put that in your hat and smoke it.

WBAP has the advantage of time and relationships, which will hold many stations through down trending. But in the end, like all of the big AM n/t stations, revenue will fall to catch up with sales demo ratings. It always does.

I doubt Movin is beating the Oasis at a 1.3 share....in Revenue.

Actually, in 2007 Movin beat the average of the prior 5 full years of smooth jazz, which is good considering that '07 was a revenue loss year for the overall market.

WBAP can't move to FM unless Citadel buys another or more Full Signal FMs in Dallas

Then they can sit and watch the revenue and audience decline. The average listener age is 58 to 59 now, and it will hit 60 next year. Not good.

... I bet WBAP will be strong and healthy 20 years from now if their product remains stellar.

Not if it stays on AM. Remember, it's already out of the money demos on 25-54.

 

[little1]

1. They (WBAP)used to be number 1 in revenue. They've been losing ground to KTCK for the last (est) 5-6 years. The Ticket has finally managed to get ahead...

2. They may be keeping it close in 12+, but they're losing ground 25-54. Which corresponds nicely to them losing ground in the revenue battle. And from what my sales sources tell me, WBAP used to be the CLEAR revenue leader. It used to not even be close. Now it's a much different story.

3. My sources tell me the same thing about movin'. That within a couple of books they were already billing more than SJ was. And yes, billing more with lower ratings.

4- Scotty- my sig-other misses jazz also. Asked me about it again a coupel days ago. And had to explain that it just wasn't drawing enough of an audience to make the kind of money the "suits" expect.

4A. And complain about the suits all you want, but every business deals with the same thing. AA cutting mechanics, SBC cutting workers, EDS laying peeps off, either buisnesses make the kind of money the owners expect, or changes are made.

 

[scottythecynic]

Thanks, Little. I figured that was the case all along.

Bongo, how intelligent of you!

Thank you Little and Eduardo for your insights.

 

[davideduardo]

1. They (WBAP)used to be number 1 in revenue. They've been losing ground to KTCK for the last (est) 5-6 years. The Ticket has finally managed to get ahead...

It's very likely that there will be a virtual tie for revenue leadership this year, with KTCK, KKDA, KPLX, KLTY and KHKS all disputing the first place with less than a million difference on either side. WBAP may end up after all of these.

 

[redbullfan]

DE...

WBAP 12+ is stable...they have not been below a 3 share nor have they ventured much above a 4 share. They have a range of 3.3 and a 4.1...the most recent trend had them at a 3.7 share. KHKS used to have 7 shares not to mention K104...their 12+ is down dramatically in the last 10 years as well.

You are making wild claims about WBAP's future performance in PPM. If you examine Houston PPM...KRBE went up, KHMX went up, Country went way up...yeah KTRH and KRPC have been poorly run for a while now...with that said KTRH is only .4 behind KRBE and KILT both successful Houston radio stations.

So if you look honestly...WBAP will be just fine because they are a much better station than KTRH.

 

[davideduardo]

DE...

WBAP 12+ is stable...they have not been below a 3 share nor have they ventured much above a 4 share. They have a range of 3.3 and a 4.1...

In Spring of '03 WBAP had a 4 share 25-54, and in Spring of '08 they have a 2.8 (and even lower in the last trend at a 2.0 in the July extrap). That is about 30% down in the only demo that matters.

Sales does not use 12+, agencies do not buy 12+.

the most recent trend had them at a 3.7 share. KHKS used to have 7 shares not to mention K104...their 12+ is down dramatically in the last 10 years as well.

You are looking at 12+ again. Both Kiss and K104 will probably outbill WBAP this year, as likely will The Ticket because all of them have much greater 25-54 numbers.

You are making wild claims about WBAP's future performance in PPM. If you examine Houston PPM...KRBE went up, KHMX went up, Country went way up...yeah KTRH and KRPC have been poorly run for a while now...with that said KTRH is only .4 behind KRBE and KILT both successful Houston radio stations.

I have been looking at the Houston PPM for 38 months now. KTRH is nowhere close to KRBE in 25-54, although they are close to KILT. Condsidering that KTRH is the only AM that comes close to covering the market completely, that's not surprising.

So if you look honestly...WBAP will be just fine because they are a much better station than KTRH.

Not for long. Follow the billing.

 

[Kent]

Actually, in 2007 Movin beat the average of the prior 5 full years of smooth jazz, which is good considering that '07 was a revenue loss year for the overall market.

What I had heard was that Movin' bills better than the Oasis, but it also has substantially higher expenses. I can't imagine CBS is all that happy with it.

 

[txchipk]

From what I've heard WBAP has the biggest AM daytime coverage and is equal to others as the biggest nighttime coverage. So that should contribute to revenue. Their signal is massive at night. They should have no problem reaching Oklahoma City or Austin with a good signal at night.

KSL 1160 Salt Lake City and WWL 870 New Orleans are 50kw clear channels that don't have coverage problems and opted for FM simulcasts. KIRO 710 Seattle has moved to KIRO-FM 97.3; most expect the AM to go to sports next year. It will actually move to a facility with less coverage in order to be on FM if they do indeed change the AM to something else. But, out of market businesses don't buy ads anyway...

I've brought this topic up about making a WBAP-FM, KRLD-FM, or KTCK-FM...
http://www.radio-info.com/smf/index.php/topic,105669.0.html
Not even counting full-time public radio/NPR outlets, there are now more than 100 news/talk or sports FMs across various radio markets. By and large, the reasoning is the same...

Most AM outlets have this reality...
- the audience on the AM was rapidly aging
- advertisers do not prize older audiences since they tend to be a harder sell regardless of the fact they have more income (i.e. brand loyal; not compulsive buyers; etc.)
- most people under 35-40 do not listen to AM radio or even consider it a choice since they grew up with little reason to tune into it (i.e. the dial already shifted to mostly talk, religious, brokered, ethnic, MOR, etc. formats by the time most of that age group hit their teens)

The sum of all that is a slow death...revenue declines because the audience is aging out of the demos advertisers care about and no younger audience to come take their place. Most of these heritage stations moved to save the brand. Otherwise, we wouldn't have WWL-FM, KSL-FM, WTOP-FM, WOKV-FM, etc. And there wouldn't be a new AM-to-FM migration occurring almost every couple of weeks now...KKFN-FM Denver, WXYT-FM Detroit, KIRO-FM, etc.