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Winter Arbitron Numbers Out

Just checked out the winter Arbitron numbers for Buffalo. WYRK is now way out in front -- more than two share points ahead of number two, WBEN. WBEN's numbers were its biggest since Fall 2009. It'll be interesting to see what happens in the spring book now that 930AM and 107.7FM are simulcasting. Big losers in the winter book appear to be 97 Rock, WJYE and WEDG -- all three were down from the fall and from winter one year ago. Winners include WGR, WBUF and WHLD. I'm not certain what we're able to quote from the 12+ numbers that are publicly posted elsewhere. But Swing 1270's share increased tremendously to its highest number in like, forever. Good move on Citadel's part. Meanwhile, WECK remains stuck where it has been these past three years. You wonder what Dick Green was thinking when he went with talk over standards at 1230AM. Now, WHLD has the standards franchise in Buffalo. I have my doubts that Brad Riter's manifesto against WBEN and WGR will generate much additional audience, while Harv Moore's presence on WHLD could attract even higher numbers, perhaps a two share or more. But here I am focusing on a couple of AM minor players. Besides WYRK, WBLK and WKSE retain their top five rankings. WTSS continued to under-perform. Perhaps its recent change in music presentation as noted in another thread on this board is designed to change things. I would assume 97 Rock will rebound, especially now that the Lake is no more. And Townsquare has to be really satisfied with "Jack." Here's a station with little overhead that is generating the best numbers this frequency has seen in years. WGR's numbers were much better than winter one year ago, most likely because of the increased interest in the Sabres, especially after Terry Pegula took over. Granted, these are 12+ numbers. But it's what we have to talk about. So, let the discussion begin!
 
Love to see the demos.

WBEN should have been much closer to WYRK during a normally rugged winter. Maybe the monthly trends gave Entercom a warning and prompted them to try to get extra sampling by killing the Lake, their weakest link in the cluster, and replacing it with a simulcast. We'll see what's next.

GR needed a deeper run in the playoffs than the Sabres gave them.

WBUF puzzles me just by managing to continue to do well enough to survive. The Jack format has been a disaster everywhere else from NYC to Toronto. A clone in Rochester is fading away. Is it that Jack is better liked in Buffalo than anywhere else, or is it more a matter of the competitors for 25-54 music listeners just failing to close the deal and allowing Jack to do well enough to hang around by default?
 
First, the disclaimer. It's Persons 12+. Which is like trying to determine the wind speed by checking the thermometer.

Call me partial, but 97 Rock doesn't fall from a 7.5 to a 4.9 in one book. Hear that sound? It's the Fluke Alarm. WGRF is too good a radio station to be a 4.9. What? Classic Rock in Buffalo just had a heart attack? Nahhh. Something's fishy. Yes, there sometimes is a dip after Bills season (Fall book), but not a 2.6 share dip. Same thing for Edge's slide from a 5.3 a year ago to a 3.8 in Winter.

So where might the loss come from in this book? Did Women disappear? Did clustermate WHTT nip a few pop listeners? Did one daypart collapse? Did one monthly trend evaporate? Given WHTT's 12+ rating, it doesn't appear 97 Rock lost listeners to the station 20 feet across the hall. If 97 suffered one soft daypart, that's a fluke. If there was an across the board loss, that could indicate the sample is tainted. Here's the silver lining: 97 Rock will bounce back in the Spring book and the Winter book will look like a small pothole.

Country WYRK is an outstanding radio station, truly deserving its ratings, but it got a big wet kiss with that 12.1, up 2.2 shares from a year ago and 1.9 from Fall. With a 12+ share like that WYRK probably wins, places or shows in every demo between 18 and 64. Question: Is it possible that WYRK shaved listeners from 97 Rock? Perhaps a few, but not 2.6 shares-worth.

The 12+ for AC rivals Star and Joy is soft. Wonder what they look like Women 25-54? The 12+ doesn't do either station justice, but it might suggest that WJYE switching to Hotter AC as "Joy" isn't catching on as quickly as expected. Then again, the soft 12+ might indicate Joy is simply shedding Women 50+ while Women 35-44 are slow to come around. Then again, it's possible that WYRK is picking off Hot AC listeners from Star and Joy. Kiss, being up a share from a year ago and up .8 from Fall also could be "borrowing" listeners from Star, which may be the reason Star made music changes noted in another thread.

WBUF/Jack, ever consistent, is the pick-pocket that takes listeners from a number of stations. Could be that Star, 97 Rock and WHTT feel Jacks hand in their pants?

WBEN is no surprise due given the weather and the news cycle, but that 12+ 9.9 looks a little inflated. The station is a "mid to high 8 share" station, given it's five book trend which is admirable, although people who have everyday access to the ratings insist the WBEN audience is concentrated 50 and 55+. Small irony, WBEN had its best 12+ numbers in "off" books, Summer '10 and Winter '11.

WGR is up from a year ago. Given the Sabres rally to the playoffs, no surprise. This station had a good jump on the Spring book too, but that rocket ride has reached its apogee now that the Sabres payoff run is done. Can WGR carry that Sabres playoff residual momentum through another month of the ongoing Spring book, giving it two out of three strong months?

The rise of WHLD with Standards? Anybody who's read or posted on this board for the last two years knows that was bound to happen. I'd guess the station could close in on a 3 share in Spring. And to think WECK...

Here's what I first noticed when opening the main R-I ratings page. In market size, market #53 Buffalo has only 500 more bodies than market #54 Louisville, Kentucky.
 
We used to see the same fluctuation in numbers here in Charlotte. My thought is it all depends on where the diaries are placed. I don't have any proof to back that up but a stations' audience doesn't just disappear. Well sometimes it can!

Maybe someone in the area can tell me, which station has the better signal overall, WECK or WHLD? I know WHLD is very directional with their 5KW day and peanut power at night.

With the numbers that WYRK is posting they are just begging for competition. Seems like WTSS with that killer signal would be the perfect foil. After all the country format was very good to Entercom at WDSY Pittsburgh in the early days of the company.
 
Mike Sheridan said:
With the numbers that WYRK is posting they are just begging for competition. Seems like WTSS with that killer signal would be the perfect foil. After all the country format was very good to Entercom at WDSY Pittsburgh in the early days of the company.

True, but after those early years 'DSY was a neglected, third-rate station with ratings and revenue to match. I was working for WGR alumnus Larry Anderson at WWVA/WOVK in Wheeling, WV from 1989-92, and we all thought "Daisy" was a joke. It was only after the Fields hired Power Pig alumnus Joe Armao as GM in late '92 that the station really began living up to its potential. "DSY" became "Y108" and went to a far more personality-oriented presentation, and not surprisingly the ratings popped - big time. In '96 WDSY was sold to Secret Communications (which was sold to SFX, who spun us off to ARS which was bought by CBS, our current owners - take notes there'll be a pop quiz!)

I can't speak for how Entercom is today but based on my personal experiences from "back-in-the-day" and co-workers' stories, I can't see them mounting a serious (read: costly) Country challenge to 'YRK. I'd more likely think if they did anything it would be a flanker...something to cut a couple points from 'YRK to help their other properties move up the ranker. Just my gut feeling...
 
You guys need to get a copy of the book. Star is shining as bright as ever (now #3 with W 25-54) with WJYE in the tank. Kiss #2 in Women 25-54 M-Su 6a-12m. WHTT looks like "nobody's home" and whatever that little pea-shooter Swing took out, it probably cannibalized its own sister station (WHTT). With Cumulus taking over, Farid will want maximum money NOW from his Buffalo GM, so Chet Osadchey -- who never was afraid to load up his log with a ton of commercials -- will be taking any deals he can, so this just creates the death spiral for them. Cumulus brags they can create $50 million in efficiency synergys when they take Citadel. This usually doesn't mean adding great content. So, look for Charlie Banta and Bill Sauer to be licking their chops and ready to pounce!
 
Wow! The first post from radiodon was quite a shot across the bow and pulled no punches taking on Citadel, Farid, Cumulus and Chet Osadchey while waving the flag for Bill Sauer and Charlie Banta. So if Kiss and Star are #2 and 3 Women 25-54 respectively, would WYRK be #1? And despite what a former cheer leading 97 Rock staff member posted earlier in the station's defense, something must have happened in the 25-54 demo to make its 12+ fall as much as it did. Eight minute commercial breaks don't do much for TSL. Sure, everybody knows about 12+ ratings and 97 Rock could still be #1 Men 25-54, but its lead over the #2 station could have melted away because of Long Distance Larry Norton in the morning. Did WGR and the Sabres beat 97 Rock in Men at night? Take a look at what happened in Rochester. The market now has four stations that claim to be Classic Hits, plus Classic Rock WCMF which used to own the market is down to a 2.2 Persons 12+. Not pretty. Classic Rock may have Oldies Disease.
 
The Sabres wouldn't TRUELY have an effect until Spring book (what we are in now) with the Playoffs, unless "Pegula Mania" (which started on Feb 22nd) had a pronounced effect...

One thing I haven't seen on here is the arbitrary "It's just the winter book" post... Can't wait for Q1 Spring trends though, should be interesting
 
"Take a look at what happened in Rochester. The market now has four stations that claim to be Classic Hits, plus Classic Rock WCMF which used to own the market is down to a 2.2 Persons 12+. Not pretty. Classic Rock may have Oldies Disease."

The competition for music listeners 35-54 is getting intense to be sure. But CMF's slide can probably be traced to two things...first, the continuing effect of the loss of Wease to a direct competitor (which is now doing almost double the numbers on the strength of Wease alone, with voicetracks the rest of the day) and replacement with a show with a lot of good sidekicks still in search of a strong host who'll center them. Then, they lost their afternoon guy, Brian Robinson, who was another real talent. CMF right now has only one strong personality in the lineup--Dave Kane in middays--and he can't be expected to carry the station himself. CMF has been a personality-driven station for years, and if you are missing the strong personalities you used to rely on, you need to do a reboot.
 
I don't understand why WYRK is so popular, a dominating #1. Maybe I'm stereotyping, but the main population in Erie/Niagara County isn't exactly the Country type. Or is it just because they have no/little competition in the Country genre?
 
Long-time reader, first-time commenter. I'll be somewhat brief and then hang up and listen:

FM -

WYRK has the market cornered with its format, but lets be honest folks, this station is WELL RUN. The on-air personalities are engaging and professional, the shows they are involved with are fun to listen to and flow smoothly, and all of their commercials/liners/PSAs are crisp and sound great!
I will say that it is time for some serious consideration to be given to moving Janet Snyder off of KISS and go with a younger approach to morning drive on 98.5 FM. I'm not sure how the staffing all works out and I'm not saying Janet and Nick should be let go, but something has to change.
Long Distance Norton has to be frustrating for all parties involved. Pull the plug already and move Shredd And Ragan to morning drive on BOTH 97 Rock and The Edge and watch the AM drive numbers improve dramatically. Consider using a syndicated PM drive show for The Edge and put the money into the morning show. Keep "Bull" as the sports anchor/expert and utilize all the on-air talent to build around that show. The money is in morning drive. Norton is not cutting it and S&R deserve another shot there after performing admirably there for over a decade before being unceremoniously dumped for the Opie & Anthony fiasco a few years back.
Jack is what it is. Let it ride!!!

AM -

WBEN is going to be fine. I wouldn't tinker with the lineup at all. Keep things consistent and as you head towards the 2012 presidential election you'll get your bang for you buck from Rush, Bauerle, Beach and Hannity. I miss the local programming on weekday evenings but Hannity's show is well listened to in this market and across the country.
WECK? Nothing to see here, at least not yet. The Spring 2011 book will be interesting to study. If there's not some type of progress, Dick Greene may be hunting for some "FOR SALE" signs for 1230 AM and 1340 AM.
Swing is going to do real well. I don't know if a 3.0 is realistic, but a 2.5 is something I can see happening in the very near future.
WGR is unlistenable when it's not hockey season. The on air talent all admit they are fans and that is fine but they are so sour on the football team (can we blame them? I know, I know) that it is painful to try and sit through more than a couple of segments of the morning show or Bulldog and Mr. I Hate My Job Mike Schopp.

On a totally unrelated note, I miss Barbara Burns on WBEN. Not surprised at all they did nothing to fill that roster spot in the WBEN newsroom. It's another sign of major changes happening in the market and in the business. I shudder to think what happens if Steve Cichon ever leaves. They are already running a tight ship already, that would be a VERY small staff for the market's main commercial NEWS talk station.
 
Fluke. Diary placement. What's next? It's revealed that somebody connected with radio got a book?

It was a long, cold, lonely winter that wore on everybody. The same-old, same-old didn't work for a lot of people. On the other had, the "big move" by WJYE into the territory that didn't work for WHTT a year ago also didn't seem to work for them. Kiss continued to expand its audience. Star continued to super-serve their slice. Let's not forget WBLK, who consistently delivers an audience that's unfairly painted with their call letters. There are plenty of suburban white 18-34's diggin' what they're laying down.

What happened to 97-Rock? Could easily be age creep hurting their 25-54. That doesn't explain their 12+ nosedive. I'm inclined to think fluke or diary placement, but you can't discount the Sabres playoff run and the arrival of Terry Pegula as factors that hurt them and helped WGR - particularly in the evening and morning drive. Imagine what might have happened if WGR was a good radio station.

What we don't see here is the impact of NPR. I know that I've been listening to them more, and 97-Rock less since they redid their program line-up. I'm sure we'll hear more analysis from those who have time to digest the book more closely.

In the meantime, WYRK get bigger and bigger. Makes you wonder what Lew Dickey might think when he and his minions get around to dissecting the Buffalo market.
 
WYRK also spends a lot of time either broadcasting live from casino Niagara,
or with an excellent promotions team there.
They must be paying a pretty penny because they occupy space that SHOULD be going to WGR sports radio instead, since that portion of the casino (these days) is a heavy sports betting spot, rather than being the slots source it once was.

I mean, honestly, what better way to attract sports fans than to occupy space where sports fans are? Instead, it seems it's always WYRK doing their thing there.
 
So, WHLD has come roaring in with a 1.7, stealing even some of the enviable share of CFZM. Some radio folks are flummoxed as to why in the world WECK did not see the light and adopt this low-hanging-fruit of a format.

I've worked for well-executed adult standards stations, both as an account executive and as an air personality in both medium and major markets. With enthusiasm, I might add. I loved the format!

What have I observed?

I can tell you that unless there is a serious, undeniable commitment from management to mount a legitimate, direct sales effort, the ratings of these stations will be meaningless. Whether you have a 0.1 or a 5.5, there won't be much billing unless there is a committed, focused sales force beating the streets for direct business.

There is absolutely local, direct advertising cash from seniors-oriented businesses available to these stations. There is not, however, an honest will to go out and pitch for it. Management may give lip service, but in practice, meaningful resources will not be devoted to selling it. This is especially true when the station is in an ownership with FMs.

If a commissioned salesman can make presentations for spots at $70 or at $15 - where do you think he will put his attention? Sales Managers will deny it, but they feel the same.

But, how about hiring a couple of sales people to sell the standards stations exclusively? Great idea, and I've seen it. But the salespeople are always inexperienced, receive little guidance, and flame out real fast. All the management attention is to the big 18-34 FM.

To operators of standards-formatted stations:

1) Forget agency business. Not even worth the drive to make a pitch. (n/c bonus spots don't count)

2) Embrace and be thrilled with the station's 60+ fans. Don't try to "get some younger demos" by hiring a PD who will add songs by Hall & Oates, Belinda Carlisle, and Mister Mister. It's a recipe for disaster.

3) Throw out Arbitron and burn your media kits. Get back to copy-focused, people-in-the-store driven sales pitches. Be sure that they are realistically affordable so that small advertisers can get some real, meaningful frequency. What's the point in holding an artificial rate when a legitimate merchant needs 100 spots for his schedule to work but can only afford 40?

4) Engage sales people who believe in the format and are willing to knock on doors until their knuckles bleed. (Tough to find, but not impossible). Create a commission structure that works for them instead of killing their spirit.

5) Expect and be satisfied with pretty good billing and don't say "we could do a lot better if our demos were 10 years younger." No, you couldn't. You have a small AM station and have chosen this format as a last resort.

It's usually said that standards-formatted stations fail because the listeners are too old. No, they fail because management has failed to commit to selling to advertisers who really want to market to these consumers. Operators lose a great opportunity, because they don't see the value in these listeners who are in love with their station.

Nick Seneca
 
Wow!  Nick Seneca has just laid out the perfect playbook for an Adult Standards station.

The boys at Entercom should bring him back home, help him find some qualified, enthusiastic salespeople
dedicated to selling just the one station-WHLD and turn him loose! 

The demos in Buffalo being what they are, I'll bet he could make them some serious extra money.  Good work, Nick!
 
Brilliant. You buyin'?

Nick Gerard said:
To operators of standards-formatted stations:

1) Forget agency business. Not even worth the drive to make a pitch. (n/c bonus spots don't count)

2) Embrace and be thrilled with the station's 60+ fans. Don't try to "get some younger demos" by hiring a PD who will add songs by Hall & Oates, Belinda Carlisle, and Mister Mister. It's a recipe for disaster.

3) Throw out Arbitron and burn your media kits. Get back to copy-focused, people-in-the-store driven sales pitches. Be sure that they are realistically affordable so that small advertisers can get some real, meaningful frequency. What's the point in holding an artificial rate when a legitimate merchant needs 100 spots for his schedule to work but can only afford 40?

4) Engage sales people who believe in the format and are willing to knock on doors until their knuckles bleed. (Tough to find, but not impossible). Create a commission structure that works for them instead of killing their spirit.

5) Expect and be satisfied with pretty good billing and don't say "we could do a lot better if our demos were 10 years younger." No, you couldn't. You have a small AM station and have chosen this format as a last resort.

It's usually said that standards-formatted stations fail because the listeners are too old. No, they fail because management has failed to commit to selling to advertisers who really want to market to these consumers. Operators lose a great opportunity, because they don't see the value in these listeners who are in love with their station.
 
I'd hazard a guess as why standards aren't carried by more stations: it's because standards only have so long to live, despite the title. If I started a radio station today, there is simply no chance it would be music and the WBEN shift is not only a cost-saving move as decried by many but a nod toward the continuing decline of music radio.

Seriously, I know the radio is free but I don't know the last time I checked in on a music radio station unless it's to hear a DJ I like like Jim Kurdziel or Josh Potter. Even music radio's best programs are talk ones: Murph, Chris Brown and Rich Gaenzler KILL it with the Bills casts.

I realize I work in talk radio, but I can't imagine working in strictly music radio. Every week there's a new obstacle making the stations insurmountable. Pandora, iPods, even those crazy compact discs. I love Zeppelin, but why pray to hear something other than "Whole Lotta Love" when I can access it in moments? Why wish Oldies 104 would come back when I have Buddy Holly, Johnny Cash and Otis Redding all over my iPod?

Every now and again I get passed links to this board in which I doubt the conventional knowledge. There's a difference between wisdom and an unwillingness to get it. Classic rock, silly pop/dance and modern country will always have a market because most people in those niches don't care to explore. I travel a ton for play-by-play work and it's rare I find a station that isn't one of those three. To be fair, I haven't tried since Pandora came on my phone.
 
Well put by Nick on the other side of the argument.

I'll only add that, via informal surveys of my friends, I get the sense that people aren't abandoning the idea of music radio, so much as giving up on music radio the way it's being done today. I hear complaints about everything from interminable commercial sets to those robo-sells on WJYE.

I believe that an intelligently programmed station, with "predictable unpredictabily" and a sense of curation from the programmer(s) and air talent would still gain attention and TSL. Unfortunately, with a few exceptions (WBFO's Blues, 97 Rock at times, even Jack with it's oh-wow songs and timely-topical bumpers) I also believe that ship has sailed.
 
topsound said:
Well put by Nick on the other side of the argument.

I'll only add that, via informal surveys of my friends, I get the sense that people aren't abandoning the idea of music radio, so much as giving up on music radio the way it's being done today. I hear complaints about everything from interminable commercial sets to those robo-sells on WJYE.

I believe that an intelligently programmed station, with "predictable unpredictabily" and a sense of curation from the programmer(s) and air talent would still gain attention and TSL. Unfortunately, with a few exceptions (WBFO's Blues, 97 Rock at times, even Jack with it's oh-wow songs and timely-topical bumpers) I also believe that ship has sailed.

That's a solid point in the second paragraph. I can remember WEDG getting tons of traction with my college music friends before they had to drop indie/alternative for more Ozzy, which really goes back to my first post!
 
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