Winter Arbitron Numbers Out

[jas2525]

jas 2525 wrote:

Looking at the latest numbers, what is realistically the best case scenario for WECK?

Just a thought from afar:

For as long as I can remember - even going back to WNIA - 1230 has always tried to be a "metro Buffalo" station.

For most of 1230's life, this has been a reasonable thing to do - especially in WECK's "Music of Your Life" days when it was, IIRC, the only station in Buffalo playing that music.

For years however, Buffalo COL powerhouses like WBEN have already been talking about national issues and Buffalo issues. In today's media marketplace, why should a rimshot graveyarder even try to compete?

If WECK is to continue as a talk station, I believe the best opportunity is to morph into a true Cheektowaga-Amherst- Depew-Lancaster station. Not living there I don't know what the issues are, but examples might be potholes on Geroge Urban Blvd, sinking houses in Amherst or security in the Galleria parking lot. Engage hosts who are suburban residents to talk about suburban issues. Leave "Buffalo talk" to the Buffalo COL stations. Make "Hometown Radio" mean something. Leave national political debate to WBEN or NPR.

Again - my disclaimer - I don't live there and have not listened, and perhaps 'ECK is doing this to some degree. But a full commitment to the eastern suburbs combined with a local direct sales focus on these communities could make this station "Arbitron-proof" and not have its viability affected by where the diaries happen to fall.

Nick Seneca

Interesting theory.

The only problem is, that a station has to be INTERESTING to get people to listen. Making it super local will deprive the hosts of talking about the most interesting conversation subjects of the day. Even people in Cheektowaga and Amherst and Lancaster don't wanna hear just about Cheektowaga and Amherst and Lancaster. They want to hear interesting subjects, be they local, state, national or international, depending on the day.

Herein lies the problem: WBEN already does that. No, they don't get into the minutae of the burbs, but I doubt even the people IN the burbs will listen to THAT for very long.

HOWEVER, if they can find a way to get each listener that makes up that .6 share to patronize each and every sponsor they have, they could do alight irrespective to Arbitron. Very tricky proposition though.

 

[VoiceGuyJack]

Here's an idea for WECK...Hire four guys... call them..Tommy Thomas, Jerry Jack, Mike Melody and Mac McGuire..Pay them minimum wage..Give each a six hour air trick..Tell them they must play only hits from 1955- 1965. Bring in the crappiest equipment you can find. Get some "cheesy" jingles...and let them roll.

It happened before...It can happen again..The results might surprise everyone...Hey Dick, What do you have to lose?

 

[Paul_Warren]

Here's an idea for WECK...Hire four guys... call them..Tommy Thomas, Jerry Jack, Mike Melody and Mac McGuire..Pay them minimum wage..Give each a six hour air trick..Tell them they must play only hits from 1955- 1965. Bring in the crappiest equipment you can find. Get some "cheesy" jingles...and let them roll...

At least it would cost much less than the attempt a few years ago to exploit the memory of KB! But 3" reels and the machines which play them are getting scarce...

The last station I worked at before leaving radio was a suburban AM in the Portland, OR market that both survived and thumbed its nose at Arbitron by super-serving the portion of the metro it served, and by covering high school sports in the evenings when pattern change and adult listening patterns left few other options. There were always sponsors lined up for high school football and basketball. The only challenge was writing and producing the spots fast enough. I was amazed at how many decent-sounding amateur play-by-play and color guys would give up their evenings to support the kids and make minimum wage, or a percentage of revenue.

 

[Element9]

You guys need to get a copy of the book. Star is shining as bright as ever (now #3 with W 25-54) with WJYE in the tank. Kiss #2 in Women 25-54 M-Su 6a-12m. WHTT looks like "nobody's home" and whatever that little pea-shooter Swing took out, it probably cannibalized its own sister station (WHTT). With Cumulus taking over, Farid will want maximum money NOW from his Buffalo GM, so Chet Osadchey -- who never was afraid to load up his log with a ton of commercials -- will be taking any deals he can, so this just creates the death spiral for them. Cumulus brags they can create $50 million in efficiency synergies when they take Citadel. This usually doesn't mean adding great content. So, look for Charlie Banta and Bill Sauer to be licking their chops and ready to pounce!

Seems Banta and Saurer are looking to bounce. Spent a little too much of the bank's money buying those NJ properties and the balloon burst.

The debt-to-equity conversion is something Oaktree Capital is adept at (though it failed with Ralph Guild at Interep). We don’t yet have the numbers for this purchase, but they’ll be significantly lower than what Buffalo-based Millennium paid in the helium-balloon days of radio station pricing.

For instance – Millennium gave Nassau $90 million for five stations at the Jersey Shore. In 2001, it paid Press $110 million for talk-and-classic hits “New Jersey 101.5” WKXW, Trenton, plus 97.3 FM in south Jersey and then-WBUD (1260). That’s a lot of debt, and Oaktree has been buying it up.

These days, Millennium founder Charlie Banta is focused on ethnic and brokered stations, through a platform named Principle Broadcasting. By late this Summer, he’ll be doing the handover of the Millennium group to Oaktree. The April 12 TRI Newsletter told you that Townsquare Media would likely be taking over Millennium. So this official sale is no surprise, though we do have to adjust the trajectory.

First, Millennium is going to Oaktree. Then – in a move that will likely be announced later this year – Oaktree will transfer the 11 stations on to Oaktree-backed Townsquare, which has the operational expertise. But Oaktree has the cash, and will be recapitalizing Millennium. Early word is that Millennium President/CEO Bill Saurer will be leaving sometime after the deal closes. Most of the stations, like classic rock “Hawk” WCHR-FM, Manahawkin (105.7) and hot AC “94.3 The Point” WJLK, Asbury Park, are in the Monmouth-Ocean metro.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Seems Banta and Saurer are looking to bounce. Spent a little too much of the bank's money buying those NJ properties and the balloon burst.

I'll bet that Banta & Sauer got their money out of Millennium a long time ago. Both of them are pretty good at spending other people's money, and being handsomely rewarded for it. I doubt that we've heard the last of them. Principle broadcasting isn't involved in this deal. The reality appears to be that Oaktree likes the way that Town Square is "maximizing potential" better than Millennium. Oaktree may be trying to build a bigger group, allowing "greater economies of scale". IOW, here we go again...

 

[Element9]

You guys need to get a copy of the book.

A friend at one of Buffalo's better agencies passed along a few notes. Although she has a few suspicions about the quirks in the Winter book, like 97 Rock's decline, she consistently buys WYRK, especially to reach Women. No wonder. Women 25-54, Mon-Sun: #1 WYRK, #2 WKSE, #3 WTSS, #4 WBLK, #5 WJYE. WYRK is in double digits and owns first place in every daypart except nights. Adults 25-54, Mon-Sun: WYRK #1 in double digits over #2 WBLK by more than four shares, #3 WKSE, #4 WBEN, #5 WTSS. Again, WYRK is #1 in every daypart except nights. Adults 35-64, Mon-Sun: WYRK is #1, the only station in double digits, #2 WBEN, #3 WHTT tied with WGRF, #5 WBUF. Again, WYRK is #1 in every daypart except nights. Men 25-54, Mon-Sun: #1 WYRK, #2 WGR, #3 WBEN, #4 WEDG, #5 WGRF. (This is the demo that has a lot of insiders wondering what happened.)

WYRK has been at the top of the ratings for years and the Winter '11 book is no exception, although it might have gotten a few more diary mentions than usual. WYRK being the only FM Country station in the market might give Cumulus a few ideas about flipping one of its FMs to Country when it takes over. Steal a few Country listeners and take WYRK down a few notches in the ratings. But considering its heritage and strong personalities, competing with WYRK wouldn't be a walk in the park.

 

[JustPastBuffalo]

There's something to be said for upper demos and 35-64 as this NY Times story about television advertising attests http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/14/business/media/14viewers.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1 Sure, it always helps to have a healthy number of 35-49's to go along with the 50-64's.

 

[Philip_Airtime]

There's something to be said for upper demos and 35-64 as this NY Times story about television advertising attests http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/14/business/media/14viewers.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1 Sure, it always helps to have a healthy number of 35-49's to go along with the 50-64's.

I'm so glad you posted this article, Jim. For years, I've been arguing that 25-54 should no longer be the "Holy Grail" in advertising, only to be shot down by others who supposedly know more than I do when it comes to radio sales. I will say it again. Baby Boomers have dominated our culture since the late 1940s. Top 40 AM radio was big in the '60s and '70s because it was the radio that we Baby Boomers listened to. Classic rock triumphed in the '80s, '90s and '00s on FM because it was the music of our life. And now that half the baby boom generation is 55 and older, we're not going to sit back and allow the advertising community to say we don't matter because we've aged out of the money demo. Baby Boomers will always matter! And this article provides further evidence that advertisers are waking up to this fact. So, stations that continue to cater to our musical tastes, and advertisers who want to cash in on the extra spending power of us older Baby Boomers, will succeed. The lower end of the 25 to 54 age group might not be as attractive as the experts think when you consider the 28 year-old kid still living at home with mom and dad while working as a barrista at Starbucks. Meanwhile, the 55 to 65 year-old Baby Boomer is at his/her peak earning years with money to spend. Sure, there are examples of older workers who were victims of this recession and may be experiencing financial hard times. But as this article states, the unemployment rate among younger workers is still greater than that of older workers. It's a new day -- the 35 to 64 demo is the "new 25-54!"

 

[Element9]

No need to consult an actuarial table. Advertisers seek 25-54s because they have a more longevity than 35-64s. As to spending power, car dealers would rather put their money on a 32 year old than a 62 year old. The 62 year old will probably buy a bigger car and pay in cash, but the 32 year old (assuming the car dealer doesn't screw the buyer) will cycle through three or four cars and finance the deals, which means the auto dealer is making money on the financing. And those car dealers love Women 25-49 because (sorry to say) they tend to be easily upsold and financed for five years (to the extent that they're upside down on their car loans.) Yes, 35-64s have value because of the 35-54 component, but 25-54s, thanks to the 25-34 component, have more years to spend their cash and use credit.

Those demographic spreads are so broad that agencies and even local buyers are shrewd enough to break down the ratings, putting their money on a station that delivers a strong center core 35-49 than a station that doesn't deliver listeners under 50. Give a radio sales person the choice of selling #1 35-64 or #1 25-54 and nine times out of ten they'll choose the latter. They might even choose selling #3 25-54 rather than selling #1 35-64.

 

[Paul_Warren]

Having agencies willing to look again at consumers over 50 is great, but I hope it doesn't mean even more ads from the pharmaceutical companies. I love oldies radio, but the stuff between the songs (including some of the tired-sounding jocks) ruins the vibe.

Brian Williams has remarked on the NBC Nightly News about the flood of pharma ads on his own program.

 

[Mark Giardina]

Bob Savage told me an interesting story.

Because he was having WYSL's towers painted, Savage had to take the AM station off the air for a few hours. During that time Bob said the telephone was ringing off the hook from 'listeners' who inquired as to why the station was not on the air.

Interesting considering that according to Arbitron, WYSL doesn't have any listeners in the Rochester metro area.

 

[JustPastBuffalo]

Coincidentally, this story about shifting and dwindling demographics appeared in today's Buffalo News. http://www.buffalonews.com/city/article424135.ece It paints a picture with which many of us based in media and radio are very familiar. After sorting out the demographic data which show declines in the very young and very old, it appears the 55-64 demo is holding up the tent poles, despite the decline in the 65+ demo. Good news for Classic Hits and Classic Rock, at least for a few more years. By extension, it indicates the competition for the dwindling number 25-44s may be more intense and by extension result in fragmented shares of listeners/viewers/users. How many times do friends in other parts of the country ask you, "why do you still live there?"

 

[heydaybegone]

WYRK being the only FM Country station in the market might give Cumulus a few ideas about flipping one of its FMs to Country when it takes over. Steal a few Country listeners and take WYRK down a few notches in the ratings. But considering its heritage and strong personalities, competing with WYRK wouldn't be a walk in the park.

I interrupt my sabatical just for this:

Niner....it would be a VERY RAINY DAY in the park!!! The tunes are what they are...appeal wise. They would have to come out of the box with MAJOR programming advantages (most of which can't be found - as evidenced by this board -the best of us can't find the combination to the safe ) . It is the classic "barrier to entry" roadblock. I would call it a "rain out", let's reschedule this game!!

Having said that...any takers that would agree that THIS WOULD BE A FUN CHALLENGE TO TAKE ON?? Hey, like Keith Urban says.."I'm In!! ;D

HDBG (yes, alive and well...just working on the Ark before the big floods hit!!)

 

[GeorgeKramer]

WYRK is too powerful and has such a stranglehold on the market, it would be tough to cause any type of dent in their prestigious armor.

Maybe WECK though? Or WSPQ out of Springville?

 

[Element9]

Are you high?

 

[yugoidar]

LOL! That's a good one, Nine! Maybe GK is on to something...go stereo! Run the left channel on WECK and the right channel on WSPQ. That'll fix 'YRK!

Oh, before you ask, I'm not high!

 

[Radio_bored-Op]

Admits I didnt read (due to time restrictions) to all the threads/posts but
got the general idea, LOL -
-and come to this conclusion:

WYRK is #1, for reasons listed ( great run station) and country,
while not sexy/flashy it is selling in a buying market ( what ever that means),
-its radio done right - and "secretly" has alot of fans - not on a friday nite,
(sure the top40s, wblk, etc) win out, but on a whole - country
is BIG here, like it or not.
-
now, onto shredd/ragan , j & pickle:

(maybe include norton/bull in this blnaket statement )
bottom line:
-
they see, "content" ( s&r) and may not get the
numbers, but get the popular vote, and have
expressed they enjoy the afternoons better
-and, for what its worth: dont care about numbers
after being here for so long as long as things keep
moving forward, cruise nite's a "success" and they
make the news (tv) once a while, i would (commentary)
think they are happy - to be doing what they are doing.

j/pickle: are also enjoying being the morning duo,
as they may not be the hip-trend setters, but
are happy (as a team) and "appear" to be iconic enough
to the market, (as a whole) for the station to use
and invest into
soo...why fix whats (not) broken..lol
-
bull and norton:
could be worse, and until some thing REELY
attracts attention to warrant a change, dont
think (commentary) there will be a change....why?
-well, why should there be - if they get some one new,
or "better" . . . it will have to be PROVEN to be
an improvement on-air/w/ the numbers, if not,
again just keeep it as is...

(sorry) for not making this as clear as I want to express it.
this is a skill I am working on ( and if i had more time )
would polish this post.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Conventional wisdom is that it's tough to attack a legacy Country station. That may have been true at one time, but there's increasing division among country music fans between "New Country" and "Old Country". I hear a lot of Rock listeners adding country to their menu because a lot of "modern" country is thinly disguised rock. I hear a lot of Country listeners complaining that a lot of "modern" country isn't country, it's thinly disguised Rock or Pop.

Stations like WYRK have serious numbers from 12-64. That's just unnatural. It's like trying to sort between KISS and 97 Rock music to keep everyone happy. The opportunity for a newcomer is to decide on a demo - either 25-49 or 35-64 - and work hard to take a chunk out of that untenable audience. Go either after the low end (modern country) or high end (real country). You force the "legacy" country station to stop trying to be everything to everybody, and either counter program - turning off a segment of their audience - or take the other position.

It would take time and an investment, but success is possible. Look west, and you'll see a lot of markets with more than one viable Country station. Look as far as Erie, and you'll see where a newcomer had a significant impact on a legacy country station.

The big question is "Who's willing to give up a decent FM signal to take on WYRK." Notice I said "decent". That leaves The Lake out, if the WBEN simulcast hadn't already ruled that out.

 

[Radio_bored-Op]

what about.......
doing what the mix 99.9 did
(for a brief while in toronto)
"mix 999, toronto's second best station..."
-
not sure what FM, but since WEDG borrows from
97rock's playlist combo 97rock?/103.3 (details, details)...

but have the FM station.. .. come FLATOUT and say,
through social media(s), station IDs, promo's/liners, etc
. . okay we are NOT WYRK but we want to be number 1,
..let us know what to do / but not like a star 102.5 way ,
like type it in and we wont read any how, but
(the hertz #2, we try harder) approach
and simply ask ( like a customer service ) style of what
to do knock off wyrk