Rock in New York City

[atlantaboy]

^David, I don't believe your analysis - WRFF is #1 in its demo, and you claim it's 18th in billing - to put it another way, in Philadelphia, Alternative is more popular with 18-34 year olds than CHR/Pop - and again, you cited study after study claiming that Alternative/Rock is no longer popular with "today's youth"

Unless you have a source to document your "facts", I'm just going to assume you're making them up, or using "facts" from questionable or unreliable sources

 

[reelyreal]

David has been a well-respected industry veteran for decades. What reason would he have to lie?

Are we supposed to assume that you, an anonymous poster, know more about the industry and have access to better information? Doubtful.

BTW, those of us with access to revenue data know he's not pulling these numbers out of thin air. That information is proprietary and can't be publicly released. If you want to believe he's lying, go ahead and believe that. You're living in a fantasy bubble.

 

[davideduardo]

^David, I don't believe your analysis - WRFF is #1 in its demo, and you claim it's 18th in billing

The billing figure is not a product of an analysis. It's a published fact.

If you want to get the data yourself, go to http://www.biakelsey.com/Research-and-Forecasts/Publications/Investing-In-Radio/index.asp#2 and buy the "Investing in Radio" quarterly books at $1425 each, or subscribe to Media Access Pro, which I believe offers a single chair license for the high 4-figure range and up.

- to put it another way, in Philadelphia, Alternative is more popular with 18-34 year olds than CHR/Pop - and again, you cited study after study claiming that Alternative/Rock is no longer popular with "today's youth

I did no such thing. I said no such thing. I cited the Edison Youth Market studies from 2000 and 2010 which demonstrate a significantly declining interest in all forms of rock music in the 12-17 and 18-24 age groups. This is substantiated by a follow up study of the year 2000 respondents made a decade later where, into early adulthood, those people continued to consume rock music at a low than historical rate.

I did not say that "... rock music is no longer popular." In fact, I said nothing. I cited an industry accepted study that shows that there is less interest / passion / purchase for or of rock music among youths in their taste formative years. That is a way of saying that, however big the broad genre was in the past, it is smaller now.

Unless you have a source to document your "facts", I'm just going to assume you're making them up, or using "facts" from questionable or unreliable sources

Arbitron. Investing in Radio. Duncan's American Radio (to 2004).

If there were a gold medal for "Messenger Shooting" you would take it with a new record...

 

[Jeffrey]

Power really isn't needed either because a lot of their songs "Justin Timberlake for example" have been played on Hot 97, KTU, & Z100. Too much overlap with KTU definitely & Z. Also why can't CBS flip Fresh to Alternative? They aren't doing as well as PLJ anyway and PLJ isn't doing that well.

How old are you?

 

[Jeffrey]

if the downward slide that wwpr seems to be on continues it may be a candidate for a flip but that would probably be in several months at least, though Radio 105.1 does have a nice ring to it.

WWPR still is at or above a 4 share in 18-49, and most viable. It places in the top 10 in this increasingly important sales demo, and its 18-34 share has actually increased in the last book to a one-year high.

And that's why looking at 6+ numbers are so dangerous. It's a beauty contest, but irrelevant for the business model of radio in the last few decades.

why do you think then that 6+ continues to be published?

 

[davideduardo]

why do you think then that 6+ continues to be published?

The numbers are published because there is a need to measure the whole universe. The Radio Disney stations target 6-11, so there is specific need for that demo. Teens are part of some youth buys... or at least an adjunct. And so on.

 

[Time Traveler]

Back to the subject of Rock in New York City....Do any of you remember that great short lived Rock station 104.3-WQIV that existed from 1974-1975???

 

[atlantaboy]

Unless you have a source to document your "facts", I'm just going to assume you're making them up, or using "facts" from questionable or unreliable sources

Arbitron. Investing in Radio. Duncan's American Radio (to 2004).

So, your source for stating that WRFF is 18th in billing (despite being #1 in their target demo) is from 2004? Are you serious?

 

[atlantaboy]

David has been a well-respected industry veteran for decades. What reason would he have to lie?

Are we supposed to assume that you, an anonymous poster, know more about the industry and have access to better information? Doubtful.

I'm providing current URL's posting this data - David is obviously well-informed and educated about the industry, but he's using data which is extremely out of date

He posted that WRFF doesn't consider itself an Alternative station, and their station website reads "Philadelphia's Alternative" - Arbitron and Mediabase both publish WRFF as an Alternative station as well

He posted a study citing that rock was becoming extremely unpopular with today's youth (from 2010), and I provided a link showing that in Philadelphia, Alternative is more popular with the 18-34 demo than CHR/Pop

Then, he posted billing figures (apparently from 2004) stating that WRFF was 18th in billing - I posted a link from AllAccess showing that WRFF is #1 in its 18-34 target demo, and I do not believe it is reasonable that a station which is #1 18-34 could possibly be 18th in billing (especially when the billing information David provided was 9 years old)

I don't believe he's lying - I believe he's been in the industry for years, and is out of touch with the current state of the Alternative format - I respect his deep knowledge of the industry, but the prospect of whether Alternative would be successful in NYC can't be based on data which is 3, 5, or 10 years old

 

[luperm]

atlantaboy is in fact-check mode

http://radiodiscussions.com/smf/index.php?topic=235762.0

 

[chrocket87]

I could be wrong, but that to 2004 source is for radio history stuff, as he fields a ton of questions about format changes in the past. I'm sure he will confirm this later.

His billing numbers are from BIA/Kelsey, which are as fresh as they get. Again, you can purchase a copy yourself to see that the billing numbers are from 2012, which he stated at least once already.

I think that his tidbit regarding how select stations report to SIP is interesting, but irrelevant to the discussion at hand. The posters and potential listeners don't care if they report to BIA as Alternative, Rock, Modern Rock, Indie, Emo, or Platypus. If the listeners hear the music they want, they don't care what they refer to themselves as to the trade. Otherwise, his facts check out well, though I'm shocked at how badly WRFF and WXDX bill.

 

[davideduardo]

Unless you have a source to document your "facts", I'm just going to assume you're making them up, or using "facts" from questionable or unreliable sources

Arbitron. Investing in Radio. Duncan's American Radio (to 2004).

So, your source for stating that WRFF is 18th in billing (despite being #1 in their target demo) is from 2004? Are you serious?

I said that Duncan's American Radio (1975-2004) is one of my sources (for historical data). Others include RBR, Radio Ink, a 4000 issue collection of Broadcasting Magazine and B&C, Inside Radio, and an assortment of trade publications, as well as Arbitron data for many markets (Including my prized collection of the original data CDs from the Philadelphia PPM tests going back to 2002),

For revenue, the gold standard are the BIA offering, including the quarterly books and the Media Access Pro software. The software service is updated daily via a download. Read the link I sent.

The source data for BIA's revenue figures is generally Miller Kaplan data as reported by the stations themselves... you can't get any closer without doing an actual audit on the stations under review.

 

[davideduardo]

I could be wrong, but that to 2004 source is for radio history stuff, as he fields a ton of questions about format changes in the past. I'm sure he will confirm this later.

Correct. I listed it as an example of the more than 1,300,000 pages of radio history and background that I have in my library.

His billing numbers are from BIA/Kelsey, which are as fresh as they get. Again, you can purchase a copy yourself to see that the billing numbers are from 2012, which he stated at least once already.

Also correct. Thanks for saying this directly; my more detailed explanation seems too deep for this particular poster.

I think that his tidbit regarding how select stations report to SIP is interesting, but irrelevant to the discussion at hand.

Yep, the real issue is whether alternative could be so profitable in NY that blowing up an existing property, losing all cash flow for as much as a year or more, losing most of the revenue at the offset, and incurring startup costs, is worth it.

It would make sense if Pacifica sells; there is no loss of revenue as it would be a pure startup. There is a big opportunity there.

 

[davideduardo]

I'm providing current URL's posting this data - David is obviously well-informed and educated about the industry, but he's using data which is extremely out of date

The data I have was updated this morning... and every morning. The revenue figures are based on 2012, the last full year it is possible to have unless you are psychic and can project the final 7 months of 2013 with accuracy.

He posted that WRFF doesn't consider itself an Alternative station, and their station website reads "Philadelphia's Alternative" - Arbitron and Mediabase both publish WRFF as an Alternative station as well

The station is still listed in BIA as "rock" and it did not list in Arbitron as Alternative until this discussion began; in any case, you do not, obviously, have subscriber access to the Arbitron format descriptors or you'd know better. Again: Arbitron does not provide the formats listed with its "free" 6+ numbers... the online publication displaying the numbers puts in things like owner and format. They get many of them wrong, too.

But you continue to think that Arbitron itself makes format calls... which it doesn't. And you still say stations "report" to MediaBase... which they don't do (they are monitored). So if anyone is using outdated data or arcane terminology, I'd nominate you.

And... bottom line... who cares what the format is described as? The issue here is whether an alternative station in New York makes business sense.

He posted a study citing that rock was becoming extremely unpopular with today's youth (from 2010), and I provided a link showing that in Philadelphia, Alternative is more popular with the 18-34 demo than CHR/Pop

I cited the benchmark Edison Youth Market studies from 2000 and 2010 which include data on the overall decline in usage of rock by teens and young adults... a very marked trend covering several decades now.

Then, he posted billing figures (apparently from 2004) stating that WRFF was 18th in billing - I posted a link from AllAccess showing that WRFF is #1 in its 18-34 target demo, and I do not believe it is reasonable that a station which is #1 18-34 could possibly be 18th in billing (especially when the billing information David provided was 9 years old)

I stated the billing figures are from 2012 and the most current ones available anywhere. The station is 18th in its market, and has a power ratio of 0.3.

Please work on your reading comprehension.

but the prospect of whether Alternative would be successful in NYC can't be based on data which is 3, 5, or 10 years old

I cited a variety of sources used in this discussion. And I clearly stated that the 2012 revenue for WRFF ranked it 18th. And I showed examples from other markets near NYC of other alternative stations with very low power ratios, starting with WBOS, to show that a home run in NYC is not a given. All of that is 2012 data. Ain't nuttin' fresher.

 

[Barry]

It would make sense if Pacifica sells; there is no loss of revenue as it would be a pure startup. There is a big opportunity there.

The related question for David is whether it may be worthwhile for WFAS FM to leave the Westchester County market (perhaps transferring the broadcast to a translator of WFAS AM, as rumor has it), move to the Bronx and start broadcasting alternative rock as a Class A signal.
Given the interest in starting a rock brand expressed by Cumulus CEO Lew Dickey, this seems to me the most likely station to flip to alternative or some other form of modern rock. Of course if Cumulus can buy/trade for WBAI then we may have an alternative rock station with a Class B signal.

 

[davideduardo]

atlantaboy is in fact-check mode

http://radiodiscussions.com/smf/index.php?topic=235762.0

Since the data all comes from the same root source, all he will get is the same data.

2008 $3.7 million
2009 $3-0 million
2010 $3.7 million
2011 $3.9 million
2012 $4.2 million.

This in a market with 2012 total revenues of $248 million.

 

[atlantaboy]

David, if I get confirmation from any other poster that WRFF is in fact 18th in billing, while being #1 18-34, I'll apologize to you - but I find it very odd that no one else in either the New York or Philadelphia forums can confirm this fact

No matter how many ways you say it, you were trying to convince people for pages in this thread that Alternative was not popular with today's youth, and again, Alternative radio is more popular 18-34 than CHR/Pop radio in Philadelphia - so you might want to check and make sure you're up to date with information before you post it

And again, you incorrectly posted that only half of the Top 40 markets have Alternative stations, skipping over 10-15 stations that are clearly Alternative

You stated that Radio 104.5/Philadelphia does not consider itself Alternative, and its website is titled "Philadelphia's Alternative"

Your fact accuracy on this thread is not credible

 

[atlantaboy]

BTW I just want to be clear why I'm questioning this...it's nothing personal

There are 18 stations in Philadelphia with a share of 2.0 or greater - WRFF comes in 8th (in terms of share), and, again 1st in the 18-34 demographic - their overall share is 4.5

In order for Radio 104.5 to be 18th in billing, nearly every single full FM Philadelphia station would have to be billing higher than it, including stations with a share of 2.0

In addition, every station in the 18-34 demo ranked #2-#10 would have to be billing higher than the #1 station in that demo

And I feel like this topic is key to whether a format flip to Alternative would be financially beneficial to stations at the bottom end of the New York City market

 

[davideduardo]

BTW I just want to be clear why I'm questioning this...it's nothing personal

There are 18 stations in Philadelphia with a share of 2.0 or greater - WRFF comes in 8th (in terms of share), and, again 1st in the 18-34 demographic - their overall share is 4.5

In order for Radio 104.5 to be 18th in billing, nearly every single full FM Philadelphia station would have to be billing higher than it, including stations with a share of 2.0

First, lose the focus on 6+. There are no 6+ buys.

Second, some formats over perform, some under perform. This is based on key demos, format suitability for advertisers, and even bias on the part of buyers.

WIP FM has a 1.3 power ratio. KYW has a 1.19. WMMR has a 1.4 (so there is no objection to rock per se... just the WRFF format) and WDAS does 1.15. WBEB is at a 1.15 too.

WUSL has a 0.7 power ratio... showing that the appeal of the country format, despite long heritage, is lower among buyers. WRDW has a 0.68... while urban over performs in that market, urban AC under delivers revenue.

Obviously, there are reasons why a highly rated alternative station performs so poorly at the revenue generation stage. And that sort of question makes anyone in NYC antsy about switching a "perfectly good radio station" to alternative there.

In addition, every station in the 18-34 demo ranked #2-#10 would have to be billing higher than the #1 station in that demo

Ratings are only a part of the buying dynamic. Stations must match the rate goals (Cost Per Point) of the buyer, they often need to give value added (bonus spots, events, online, etc.) and other services. Sales also depend on the skills and talents of the sales staff.

In other words, agencies do not have to buy any station. They can pick and choose pretty much at will as long as they deliver the client's key demos and desired number of impressions, etc.

18-34 is a secondary buying demo. The core demos are 25-54 and 18-49. In markets with large ethnic populations, 18-49 is becoming more prevalent as it focuses more on the concentration of the major ethnicities in younger demos.

WRFF averages #2 in both 25-54 and 18-49. Why they can't convert this performance to billing is a mystery to me. But the same issue applies to other low power ratio stations I have mentioned.

And I feel like this topic is key to whether a format flip to Alternative would be financially beneficial to stations at the bottom end of the New York City market

Thank you. That is exactly my point. If there is uncertainty about ratings, caused by past experience with younger leaning rock genres in New York, and many instances of stations underperforming in the ratings vs. revenue areas, then it is unlikely a profitable station would flip. Too risky, too costly.

 

[davideduardo]

David, if I get confirmation from any other poster that WRFF is in fact 18th in billing, while being #1 18-34, I'll apologize to you - but I find it very odd that no one else in either the New York or Philadelphia forums can confirm this fact

Perhaps nobody in these fora have access to the data. It's just like any question like "how is Limbaugh doing in 25-54" where only those with access to the Arbitron data could answer and then only after doing a custom daypart run in the PPM Analysis Tool from Arbitron.

No matter how many ways you say it, you were trying to convince people for pages in this thread that Alternative was not popular with today's youth,

Youse done gotta take wunna dem reading comprihenson classez. I said no such thing. I cited a reputable study from one of the best research companies in the business that shows that there is a multi-decade decline in youth interest in rock of any kind.

In other words, the partisans of rock in any form are fewer today than 10, 20 or more years ago.

and again, Alternative radio is more popular 18-34 than CHR/Pop radio in Philadelphia - so you might want to check and make sure you're up to date with information before you post it

You are really, badly, confusing ratings of specific individual stations with the overall national interest in a broad musical genre. You are comparing apples to zebras.

And again, you incorrectly posted that only half of the Top 40 markets have Alternative stations, skipping over 10-15 stations that are clearly Alternative

I did not say that. Again, you read with rose colored glasses on.

I named several of the Top 50 markets (there is no "standard" for the Top 40 markets... you invented that division yourself) where stations playing rock did not identify as "Alternative" to Arbitron or where, when asked by BIA, identified with a different term than "Alternative". There are many reasons to do this, as I explained, but the main one is to pick the format name that is acceptable by Arbitron but which has the least buyer resistance.

You stated that Radio 104.5/Philadelphia does not consider itself Alternative, and its website is titled "Philadelphia's Alternative"

I said that it is identified by, based on station input, to the major media data source, as "rock" and not "alternative". You'd have to ask Clear Channel management why they don't like using "alternative" at the sales level... it may be that they know there is a stigmata on the face of the format.

Your fact accuracy on this thread is not credible

Your problem is that you are interpreting industry accepted data based on what is obviously a fanboy mentality. Your understanding of the radio business is abominably weak; I've tried to define every term I have used (like Power Ratio and CPP) but it appears to have been to little or no avail.