Who is Flipping first???

[Kent]

Its going to get stronger with the merger. I figure they will only cut the duplicate stations. Everyone who gets set up with either XM or Sirius, falls in love with it

So, that's why it doesn't even have a 50% subscriber retention rate after 1 year? When it comes to cutting the duplicate stations, that's a bigger mistake than you realize. The most successful channels on both services are the mainstream ones, and there are dual subscribers who will drop one or both services if too many of their favorites get axed. Remember, the Telecommunications Act of '96 was supposed to make radio stronger. Most people seem to think the opposite has happened due to all of the mergers. How will the satellite merger yield the exact opposite results?

 

[redbullfan]

Why do we get so off Topic around here? If you want to start a thread about Satellite radio...do it...if it is about the death or not of AM radio do it...this thread was about Local stations that might flip soon. Satellite radio will never beat FM/AM radio. AM radio is not dead...AM radio is alive thanks to News/Talk. Those stations that change to FM will die and have...just look at KTAR in Phoenix. Will WBAP move to FM...NO...it never will and if they do it would be the worst business decision in the history of DFW radio. The Demo for News/Talk is mainly a 35-64 thing...younger people tend to not be Political as do older folks who care more about their community. Now back to this thread please!!!

Movin 107.5 will flip in the next few months to either Top 40, Country or Americana...I think the Americana thing is a smokescreen.
105.3 will flip to either Top 40, Country or some form of Rock. In the next few months...it's not IF but when. They are not making a profit since the arrest of Russ Martin and are bleeding badly.
CC will go from 3 to 2 Rock stations. My bet is that either 92.5 or 102.1 merges into the Eagle for a Rock Superstation.
I have a feeling that KRLD will move to FM even though that is a bone headed decision...my bet is 100.3...Jack is failing too

With PPM...Mix 102.9 soars way up in the ratings just like Houston and LA. Is CBS considering putting another Hot AC/Modern AC on after PPM starts depending on performance of Mix in PPM.
Both Country stations improve in rank and a third Country coming back is not out of the Question.
How much of a hit will the Dallas Urbans and Urban ACs take after the start of PPM? Urban has suffered some except for Houston...what gives.
Top 40 is booming in LA after PPM and it does well in Houston too. Will Kiss go even higher and attract a direct competitor.

KSCS sounds just marginally better in the Texas feel now, but I still think Wolf...but that is changing. Which station wins after PPM?

 

[Slambang]

Im not so sure about Americana being a smokescreen for 107.5, it may go on the main or HD subchannel. Either way its coming and it'll be welcomed.

When it comes to KRLD, a simulcast move to 100.3 or even 105.3 isnt an out of the question idea. The other frequency will probably go to an alt/rock or (God Forbid) Top 40 format.

 

[bucwhyl]

Im not so sure about Americana being a smokescreen for 107.5, it may go on the main or HD subchannel. Either way its coming and it'll be welcomed.

When it comes to KRLD, a simulcast move to 100.3 or even 105.3 isnt an out of the question idea. The other frequency will probably go to an alt/rock or (God Forbid) Top 40 format.

As long as it's a dull format with no rhythm huh Slam? Then you can dance to it......

 

[Slambang]

Hey hoss, I like rythym, just want some more variety in Dallas radio when it comes to formats.

 

[bucwhyl]

You know what Slam? You cool people in my book. Here I am high-sidin' and you just take it all in stride. ;D

 

[Jay F]

I think they are going to smarten up and put a chr station to compete, i mean a top 40 based chr, not some kiis/ kkda hybrid...the only question is...Which station do they take out to do it?

I'm with you on that one - I've driven across the country and heard real CHR to-40 stations, what a relief it would be to have one here. I think it would rate right up there with kiis / kkda and capture a splendid audience. It works in other metro areas, it can work here.

Most of those "real" CHRs are in small markets. The vast majority of large market Top 40 stations play tons of rhythmic product, not just KHKS. It works, CHR is HOT right now. The format is doing so well (in prime female demos too!) that several markets have room for CHR challengers right now.

MOVIN" is doing horrible and they should dump that losing format. Yet CBS has already tried Top 40 and gotten nowhere against KISS. They may not be in the mood to try it again so soon. They still need to flip to something.

 

[johnqdoe]

Americana or AAA wont work here. It's been tried and proven to fail. This market isn't SF or Austin or Seattle. Sad but true

 

[davideduardo]

AM radio is not dead...AM radio is alive thanks to News/Talk.

AMs like KMOX and KDKA and WCCO are dead in sales demos and losing billing rapidly. Unless they move to FM or simulcast, there is no hope for 36-54 salable numbers.

Those stations that change to FM will die and have...just look at KTAR in Phoenix.

KTAR is statistically tied with KFYI now in 25-54. It's a raging success, like the move to FM of KSL or WIBC and dozens of others.

Will WBAP move to FM...NO...it never will and if they do it would be the worst business decision in the history of DFW radio.

They will be dead in a few years if they don't. They are down to 10th in 25-54, and 18th in 18-49, the biggest sales demos.

The Demo for News/Talk is mainly a 35-64 thing...younger people tend to not be Political as do older folks who care more about their community. Now back to this thread please!!!

It's impossible to grow 35-44 with an AM. 45-54 is slipping badly, and 55+ is not salable.

 

[Slambang]

Laides and gentleman, dave eduardo has crapped on the conversation and left the building


John, Im still a believer that AAA or Americana can succeed here. Problem is most of the stations havent had the tower wattage, Ad/promotions budget to push it across the region or even rarely bring in the bands for shows(im looking at KHYI as the closest example). While im not a fan of CBS as a whole, If they did bring one of those formats to the market, you could count me as a listener..

 

[davideduardo]

Laides and gentleman, dave eduardo has crapped on the conversation and left the building

Reality is a bitter pill.

 

[redbullfan]

David...you are clueless

News/Talk has always been a 35-64 Core Demo format!
KTAR is not even close to KFYI...the final score is not even remotely close. Raging Failure in the beauty 12+ and in the Core Demo 35-64 to KFYI...they are blurring the line with "Hot Talk" somewhat and further more they don't have any major Talkers like Rush and Hannity. Plus...they are on FM and that hurts the so called "Serious" nature...in other words people assoc Hot Talk with FM and News/Talk with AM.
Question: KDKA losing? Quit smoking whatever your smoking...KDKA is whooping it's FM rival in that ratings. If the winning station in the ratings can't boost it's revenue stream...FIRE THE SALES Staff and find Sales Folks who can. The Programming Dept is doing it's job...your saying the Sales Folks aren't.

AM Stations need to promote more too by the way.

David...WBAP doesn't care about 18-34, because News/Talk has and always been a older Demo...blame the Sales Staff for falling revenue...blame the company for letting their rank fall because the have failed to advertise the heck out of the station and market it as good as can be.

David..KSL is on both AM and FM as well as WIBC I think. IF they drop the AM side...watch out...another AM will come on and slowly take their serious listeners...come on...look at Des Moines...the AM is whooping it's FM rival...clear example of the "Serious" factor.

WBAP can't move to FM anyways...Citadel only has 1 Full FM signal in the market and they are not going to dump KSCS.

David are you in Sales? Figures...you giving up on AM...it is if you try hard enough...if you market it...if you can sell all this crap on TV then you can definitaly sell a Blow-Torch AM station if you market it well.

 

[redbullfan]

Slight correction: In Pittsburg...KDKA is still on top, but their FM rival is closing in. I compared the two websites...the FM rival has both Rush and Sean Hannity and that will keep them competitive with KDKA...this race should get closer...this will be an interesting battle to watch. WIBC in Indy is only FM, then again they really don't have any competition. In Salt Lake City if you compare the websites...KSL is News while KRNS their AM only rival is News/Talk...KSL can claim News/Talk with Hannity but not much else. Plus KSL is also a Local TV station too...that helps! To Phoenix...the KTAR website sucks and their lineup in very weak...that is why they trail KFYI by miles.

 

[TrapperJohn]

WIBC has had "competition" over the past few years. Entercom owns a talk station in Indy, but it has never done much better than a 1 in 6 years. Cumulus made a half-arse stab at FM talk for a short while too. WIBC's heritage, whether on AM or FM, would be pretty hard for any competitor to overcome.

Interesting talk battle in New Orleans too. CC's WRNO-FM stole Limbaugh away from WWL-AM, making the 12+ more competitive than ever.

I think the majority of 35-64 news/talk listeners would go to FM if the content matches what they're looking for.

 

[Free XAOH]

Will take too much time to quote so many individually but just wanted to address a few general opinions on this thread (one of my favorites to read so far by the way) with my own.

1) I still don't know what americana is as a format. Tom Petty/Bob Seger/Steve Miller every hour = Americana??
Still, I have been enjoying Lonestar alot since they went to that format so maybe another station wouldn't be so bad.

2) In the CBS family Jack is the only station making huge profits right now. The definitely will not flip and will NEVER have on air talent and especially not a morning show anytime in the near future.

3) 105.3: Lots of bad press, bad programming decisions, bad ratings, huge cost to run.... still making profit somehow.. don't see a flip in the immediate future. Long term... well.... if you see rain clouds it's probably gonna rain.

4) I don't see a top 40 station in CBS' future like so many recommend. Anyone remember Hot 100.3, or Wild 100.3? They tried to be like KISS and failed.

5) "Hey this is only this guys 2nd post. He has no idea what he's talking about!!!" ....... you are correct.

 

[Jay F]

Slight correction: In Pittsburg...KDKA is still on top, but their FM rival is closing in. I compared the two websites...the FM rival has both Rush and Sean Hannity and that will keep them competitive with KDKA...this race should get closer...this will be an interesting battle to watch. WIBC in Indy is only FM, then again they really don't have any competition. In Salt Lake City if you compare the websites...KSL is News while KRNS their AM only rival is News/Talk...KSL can claim News/Talk with Hannity but not much else. Plus KSL is also a Local TV station too...that helps! To Phoenix...the KTAR website sucks and their lineup in very weak...that is why they trail KFYI by miles.

Don't let the 12+ fool you. In the Spring book FM talker WPGB/Pittsburgh was #2 25-54 (yes 25-54 not 35-64) while KDKA was not even in the top 10 25-54! There has since been a new trend and WPGB went up yet again.

 

[johnqdoe]

I just don't think this market will support it. Folks here love their new cars, strip malls, and chain restaurants. Adventurous music doesn't fit.

Laides and gentleman, dave eduardo has crapped on the conversation and left the building


John, Im still a believer that AAA or Americana can succeed here. Problem is most of the stations havent had the tower wattage, Ad/promotions budget to push it across the region or even rarely bring in the bands for shows(im looking at KHYI as the closest example). While im not a fan of CBS as a whole, If they did bring one of those formats to the market, you could count me as a listener..

 

[davideduardo]

¿Don't let the 12+ fool you. In the Spring book FM talker WPGB/Pittsburgh was #2 25-54 (yes 25-54 not 35-64) while KDKA was not even in the top 10 25-54! There has since been a new trend and WPGB went up yet again.

Yes, and KDKA's billings are off 30% since '03. It's 13th in 25-54 which likely explains the drop.

 

[davideduardo]

WIBC in Indy is only FM, then again they really don't have any competition.

That is not the point. WIBC moved 8 months ago from AM to FM. Since then, it is inside the top 10 in 25-54, while previously it was not. Overall numbers have increased, too.

In Salt Lake City if you compare the websites...KSL is News while KRNS their AM only rival is News/Talk...KSL can claim News/Talk with Hannity but not much else.

KSL is just as n/t as KGO or any other n/t that has a strong news presence. It is, howerver, a lot more local than many n/t stations.

KSL is a simulcast, and the 25-54 increased hugely when they added the FM.


[/quote] To Phoenix...the KTAR website sucks and their lineup in very weak...that is why they trail KFYI by miles.
[/quote]

They are statistically tied with KFYI in 25-54 in Spring.

 

[davideduardo]

David...you are clueless

Thanks. I am about to return the compliment, but with proof.

News/Talk has always been a 35-64 Core Demo format!

Actually, today, many n/t stations are more than 50% over 55.

The issue is that the 55+ component is not salable. There are essentially no buys against 55+. So as the AM listener base ages (the listeners get older on average as no new listeners come in as others go into 55+), with the average age increasing a year every 18 months, AMs will simply not have enough 25-54, the sales demo, to stay in business.

KTAR is not even close to KFYI...the final score is not even remotely close.

In 25-54, they are statistically tied. That is ALL that matters.

Raging Failure in the beauty 12+ and in the Core Demo 35-64 to KFYI...

There is no 35-64 sales demo. It's all between 18 and 54, with the move of recent to 18-49 becoming stronger as advertisers look at their advertising ROI's.

Question: KDKA losing? Quit smoking whatever your smoking...KDKA is whooping it's FM rival in that ratings.

25-54 KDKA 13th. The underdog is 2nd.

David...WBAP doesn't care about 18-34, because News/Talk has and always been a older Demo...blame the Sales Staff for falling revenue...blame the company for letting their rank fall because the have failed to advertise the heck out of the station and market it as good as can be.

They are falling in sales because they are now, in the July trend, 18th in 25-54.

David..KSL is on both AM and FM as well as WIBC I think.

KSL is a simulcast, and when they began, they immediately increased in 25-54 and now they are #1 in the demo. It's even #3 in 18-49.

WIBC moved lock, stock and barrel to FM. The AM is now sports. It similarly shot way up into the money in sales demos when it moved the last week of December of last year.

IF they drop the AM side...watch out...another AM will come on and slowly take their serious listeners...come on...look at Des Moines...the AM is whooping it's FM rival...clear example of the "Serious" factor.

WHO has better programming, but it is on AM so it is declining in 25-54 and its revenue has had no growth for the last 8 years. They had better get on FM and soon.

There are many examples of n/t moving to FM from an AM, the latest being KIRO in Seattle. Or, look at news WTOP... they abandoned AM they increased in share quite nicely, but the increase in 25-54 is the big story. Losing some geezers in the process is inconsequential.

Also, there are only, on the average, 2 viable AMs in each of the top 40 markets... signals that cover 80% of the market day and night... and the chances of a startup AM talker are minimal if even possible.

WBAP can't move to FM anyways...Citadel only has 1 Full FM signal in the market and they are not going to dump KSCS.

Citadel is in a difficult financial strait, so this one will likely not happen soon. But that does not mean that they should not.

David are you in Sales?

I have been a seller, a manager, an owner, a PD, a CE and a janitor among other things. Click the link.

Figures...you giving up on AM...it is if you try hard enough...if you market it...if you can sell all this crap on TV then you can definitaly sell a Blow-Torch AM station if you market it well.

Most of the TV stuff you refer to fit one of several categories:

1. PI accounts, much more common on TV because all TV syndicate and net porgramming has holes that must be filled, so getting a buck or two is better than nothing.

2. Products that need "appetite appeal" meaning a visual.

3. Products that need lengthy disclaimers, which can be run in a scroll, etc. on TV but use up half the spot in radio.

Unless you are in a smaller market and can live with no agency business, 55+ won't support a station. And AM, in general, is going mostly 55+ and will be hard to sell to any account with money.